Quick links:  Login  |  Sign up  |  Site Rules  |  Support TMLfans

Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 01:20:37 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

cabber24 and 17 Guests are viewing this topic.

cw

#195
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2024, 12:20:08 PMI'd take them both at league minimum with some bonuses as long as they aren't super easy to achieve (like Connor Brown's 10GP one with EDM).

Klingberg could still potentially be a fine bottom pair offensive guy, especially if the team leans more towards defensive fee agents targets for the top-4. If they sign say a Montour then there's no role for him here though. But if it's like Tanev and Zadorov then the team could still use another offensive puck mover. If he sucks then he's easy enough to waive. 

Murray I talked about before but he'd be one of the better if not best 3G options to split time with Hildeby on the Marlies next season. Jones is rumoured to be very interested in a return as well for that same role but Murray has a little more upside there so all things being equal I'd lean more towards him, but either would be fine really.

With that kind of a deal, there would be a fair chance Murray wouldn't clear waivers. Little risk for anyone to grab him. I'm not sure Jones would clear waivers next season either after what he did this past year. They couldn't send him back down this year or he probably would have been taken. They could try to get Jones through the healthy NHLers to start the season like they did last year but after that ...

I don't know Brossoit or Stolarz very well. Along with not knowing how well Murray has/will recover also makes it nearly impossible to be very confident in making a choice.

With Woll's injury history, they definitely need someone decent playing with Hildeby

Klingberg, I'm not as sure. It depends on Liljegren and how much $ he wants and whatever else is on the UFA market.

If they do pan out, it could hurt next year's cap.

But I agree that it should be a lot tougher for them to cash in than what Brown got. That deal was almost pointless. Hopefully, the bonus structure could be tiered somehow

cw

Quote from: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 02, 2024, 05:21:28 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2024, 12:20:08 PMI'd take them both at league minimum with some bonuses as long as they aren't super easy to achieve (like Connor Brown's 10GP one with EDM).

Klingberg could still potentially be a fine bottom pair offensive guy, especially if the team leans more towards defensive fee agents targets for the top-4. If they sign say a Montour then there's no role for him here though. But if it's like Tanev and Zadorov then the team could still use another offensive puck mover. If he sucks then he's easy enough to waive. 

Murray I talked about before but he'd be one of the better if not best 3G options to split time with Hildeby on the Marlies next season. Jones is rumoured to be very interested in a return as well for that same role but Murray has a little more upside there so all things being equal I'd lean more towards him, but either would be fine really.

I think they'll want Hildeby and Akhtyamov to split the Marlies net, no?

They might have to go with 3 in the AHL unless they feel Hildeby is ready to backup in the NHL (which I doubt). Woll being injury prone probably dictates that no matter who the other NHL goalie is.

I was thinking 'they could always send one of them to the ECHL for games ..' but they don't have an ECHL team. Maybe they will before the end of the summer. They have a lot on their plate in the next 35 days ...

herman

https://twitter.com/taylordbaird/status/1798028614732296322
hmm... Dallas is down a top-6ish RW leadership guy
They currently have 15M to work with and 4D, 4F to fill...
#27 #TeamFasstholes

herman

https://twitter.com/tlndc/status/1799837531024109588
Dangle the bait; and the other team probably has to put a good foot forward re: extension $. Some kookoo bananas cap floor team should definitely throw out 15M AAV.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Bender

Quote from: herman on June 09, 2024, 12:45:18 PMhttps://twitter.com/tlndc/status/1799837531024109588
Dangle the bait; and the other team probably has to put a good foot forward re: extension $. Some kookoo bananas cap floor team should definitely throw out 15M AAV.

Hypothetically they should be open to trading anybody.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

herman

I think this is probably the Leafs' best approach, filtering the chatter for options that meet their requirements first. Worst case is Marner nixes a trade, and we just get to keep him for a year (while he either suffers from the pressure, or leans into his spite and plays so well he jacks up his next contract price in UFA).

I was originally thinking of just letting Ferris talk to whatever teams Marner wanted to hear from, like it was 2025, but that wouldn't guarantee the Leafs anything useful in return (aside from cap room).
#27 #TeamFasstholes

L K

It's showmanship...but I think this makes sense.  I'm sure they have had this conversation with Mitch/his agent that the team intends to listen to offers.  I don't know that this changes anything about how Marner's team is approaching the offseason.  I'm sure they will pass around numbers but given his last deal was signed right before training camp when it was 100% clear that both parties want him here, I have a hard time believing they will negotiate for a reasonable number when there is no obligation to do so.

Marner's camp can hold out even into the offseason as they could arrange a trade before free agency if he really wants the 8 year deal and the Leafs don't want to lose him for absolutely nothing.  There is no incentive from Marner to play nice and take a trade unless he doesn't want to risk social media criticism. 

Guilt Trip

Quote from: L K on June 10, 2024, 09:36:28 AMThere is no incentive from Marner to play nice and take a trade unless he doesn't want to risk social media criticism. 
He doesn't seem to care much about them now.

CarltonTheBear

#203
Enjoying Capfriendly's Armchair GM feature while I still can. This one was all about "can we afford to acquire William Karlsson from Vegas AND still address the D+G?". Honestly I thought the answer to this would be no and was pleasantly surprised:

Starting out by having to clear salary. That's Kampf and Jarnkrok. Kampf to me is generally a goner in any offseason projection. Jarnkrok is less of a necessity to move and this would all technically still be possible with him but it would make the max roster size 21 instead of 22 so I'll take the extra flexibility largely because his roster spot is also going to be replaced by a cheaper veteran who might fit the vibes of the 24/25 team better. These are cap dumps. Kampf I could see going to NJ to be reunited with Keefe as they look to be in need of a 4C. Jarnkrok could fit on a lot of teams. If we get some sort of pick or young minor leaguer back for them great, if not I'll accept just the cap space.

Next up of course is acquiring William Karlsson. He's 31-years old, has a $5.9mil cap hit for the next 3 seasons. Ticks a lot of boxes as something we need (two-way centre, can win face-offs, kill penalties, fast, Swedish). Vegas has Eichel and Hertl occupying their top-2 centre spots though and with other needs Karlsson at $5.9mil is just a luxury they can't afford right now. This is a stereotypical fan trade offer but I would assume Liljegren and possibly Robertson as well would be parts of this trade. Lily in particular I could see fitting well with Vegas as they actually have a bit of a need at RHD at the moment. Other pieces would be required as well for sure but I doubt anything major (by that I mean Cowan, Minten, or maybe even another 1st as that's basically what Lily represents but if push came to shove and a 1st was needed I'd probably still pull the trigger) since we are talking about a non-elite forward on the wrong side of 30 who Vegas is looking to move for cap space. So that's that.

Next up some signings. I think Karlsson would keep us out of the hunt for Montour or Skjei, which is actually fine because I think I've actually landed on Roy and one of Tanev or Zadorov being my preferred D targets on July 1st. I give Roy $6mil for 6 years, and Tanev $4.5mil for 3 years. Maybe even add a 4th year to Tanev if that's necessary, somewhat decent chance he'd be a LTIR candidate at that point anyway. Stolarz is my go to goalie option now and he's at $3.25mil here. Dewar is the lone RFA re-signed at $950k.

Things are tight for cap space right now but we still need an additional forward. I think getting creative with David Perron on a 35+ performance bonus deal is the best way to squeeze a quality middle-6 winger onto the team, even if it comes at a price in 25/26 with the carryover bonus. I have Perron signing for just $1mil, with two sets of bonuses (one easy to achieve and another that's a little more challenging) that would bring his total hit to about $3-3.5mil if hit.

That leaves us with a roster that looks like this:

Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Karlsson-Marner
Cowan-Tavares-Perron
Holmberg-Dewar-Reaves

Rielly-Roy
McCabe-Tanev
Benoit-Timmins

Woll
Stolarz

With that there would still be $1.7mil left over, enough for 2 additional roster players who would hopefully both be eligible to go up and down with the Marlies in order to bank cap space throughout the season for a possible deadline add somewhere. I would be perfectly fine with bringing Klingberg back either on a bury-able contract or possibly even PTO in order to compete with Timmins for the final D spot at training camp.

herman

I like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay). Another option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

I wonder if Vegas would Nate-Schmidt us Karlsson...
#27 #TeamFasstholes

CarltonTheBear

#205
Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay).

The Daily Faceoff posted his projection at $5.5mil x 4 years, while the Athletic/Evolving Hockey put him at $6.1mil x 5 years. So I think $6mil x 6 years would certainly be on the high end of his offers considering he does have pretty limited offensive abilities. Especially as far as offers from serious/contending teams go (i.e. teams that aren't like San Jose or Chicago or Utah who are just looking to burn money).

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMAnother option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

Yeah I've mentioned Arvidsson before as well. He could certainly fit that role too and honestly I'd probably prefer him over Perron since he's younger and faster. But Perron just makes a lot more sense due to the Berube connection. I think for either of them if you're going with a base salary of $1mil to make things work cap wise you need at least another $1-1.5mil in very easy to achieve bonuses (like 10GP) since other teams would likely offer that as guaranteed money. After that another $1mil or so in higher offensive targets like 15 goals or 40 points is what I'd be thinking.

Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI wonder if Vegas would Nate-Schmidt us Karlsson...

Yeah I really don't know what I would expect from a Karlsson trade. Guys like Schmidt and Fleury were of course basically given away for free in order to clear salary for Vegas. I don't expect that to happen with Karlsson though but hey who knows.

herman

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 14, 2024, 10:46:43 AM
Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMI like pretty much all of the above, especially if we can fish Matt Roy out of LA (which I think is a bit unlikely unless we overpay).

The Daily Faceoff posted his projection at $5.5mil x 4 years, while the Athletic/Evolving Hockey put him at $6.1mil x 5 years. So I think $6mil x 6 years would certainly be on the high end of his offers considering he does have pretty limited offensive abilities. Especially as far as offers from serious/contending teams go (i.e. teams that aren't like San Jose or Chicago or Utah who are just looking to burn money).


My concern is not so much what we offer Roy, but if LA even lets him get to UFA. I hope he does (because LA wouldn't be offering 8 years at this point, right?). He'd be my top UFA-D option. I am suspicious of most of Carolina's D numbers.

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on June 14, 2024, 10:46:43 AM
Quote from: herman on June 14, 2024, 10:30:40 AMAnother option for forward I saw from Stephen Brown, is Viktor Arvidsson, who is UFA and coming off an injury-riddled season. He qualifies for a performance bonus-type contract a la Connor Brown, but we could probably just stipulate something more sensical than play 10 games (score 15 goals?). He's small, but used to be very feisty and fast.

Yeah I've mentioned Arvidsson before as well. He could certainly fit that role too and honestly I'd probably prefer him over Perron since he's younger and faster. But Perron just makes a lot more sense due to the Berube connection. I think for either of them if you're going with a base salary of $1mil to make things work cap wise you need at least another $1-1.5mil in very easy to achieve bonuses (like 10GP) since other teams would likely offer that as guaranteed money. After that another $1mil or so in higher offensive targets like 15 goals or 40 points is what I'd be thinking.

Oh yeah, other teams. You plan is sound. Not too plussed about the cap hit spilling over to next season.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

herman

My Offseason Shopping List by priority
  • 2x RD: at least one should be top-4 capable; skill priority in order: puck retrieval acumen, PK effectiveness, skating, passing
  • Mid-range Goalie: stable presence, needs to be able to handle Toronto media, needs to not be a ghoulish conspiracy-nut
  • Middle 6 Centre: RH preference with PK experience; hopefully fast-ish
  • Cheap fast forwards: RH preference with PK and forecheckiness

My shopping options for each
  • Matt Roy, Chris Tanev, Dylan DeMelo, Alex Carrier
  • I don't know, trade for Filip Gustavsson?
  • Elias Lindholm (probably overpay a bit) or trade nearly nothing for a William Karlsson cap dump
  • Michael Amadio, Sam Lafferty (lol), Kasperi Kapanen (lmao)
#27 #TeamFasstholes

CarltonTheBear

#208
Quote from: herman on Today at 08:51:44 AMMy shopping options for each
  • Matt Roy, Chris Tanev, Dylan DeMelo, Alex Carrier
  • I don't know, trade for Filip Gustavsson?
  • Elias Lindholm (probably overpay a bit) or trade nearly nothing for a William Karlsson cap dump
  • Michael Amadio, Sam Lafferty (lol), Kasperi Kapanen (lmao)

I actually think Gustavsson will be a sneaky good add for a team somewhere this season but I'm not sure it'll be the Leafs. Gus has openly said it himself that a big thing he needs to work on is his "mental mindset" to be a more consistent goalie. He seems to have a hard time digging himself out of the lows of a season. For obvious reasons don't know if Toronto is the best place to work on that sort of stuff.

One "cheap fast forward" I've had on my list is Brandon Duhaime. Former long-time linemate of Dewar with Minnesota (they were often referred to as Dewy 1 and Dewy 2 there), and the duo actually formed a line with Reaves for most of 22/23 after Reaves was traded there. He's basically a bigger/more physical version of Dewar while trading away a little offensive talent. But still very fast and has PK experience. I think he probably comes in a little more than I'd like to spend on a 4th liner especially with Reaves' contract on the books but still someone I could see Treliving going after, especially if Kampf is moved.