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Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 01:20:37 AM

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herman

Another silly idea:

To NJD: Mitch Marner (sign and trade), Timothy Liljegren (RFA rights), Keith Petruzzelli (RFA rights)

To TOR: Jesper Bratt, Jake Allen, Simon Nemec, 2025 Rd2 (Jets' pick)
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Joe

Quote from: herman on May 20, 2024, 11:19:22 AMEither way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards.

I'm honestly not trying to be jerky, but I'm not sure how you can call this past season running it back. Unless you consider not trading any of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander or Marner running it back?

Because the team that finished the playoffs in '23 and started this season were quite different.

Frank E

Quote from: Deebo on May 21, 2024, 10:47:51 AM
Quote from: Deebo on May 21, 2024, 08:13:19 AMIts kind of ridiculous the cap is only going up to 87.7M

The PA deficit from the Covid year is reportedly paid off and league revenues were reported as high 6.43B in 2022/23.

Even using a conservative 6.0B as the revenue number, 350M in estimated player benefits (the CBA uses 100M on 3.8B of revenue as their estimate), and no escalator, it results in a midpoint of 88.3M and a cap of 101.5M.

I kind of understand not wanting to increase it too much at once, but its only increasing 4.2M this off season. It went up more than that when the cap was under 70M

I was reading the MOU from 2020 and there is 5% limit to the yearly cap increase, which would be that cap of 87.7M

But there is a provision for when it is anticiapted that in the upcoming season the total paid to the players won't end up being 50% of that seasons league revenues, the PA and league can agree to increase the cap by up to an additional 5%. The PA and must league agree to any increase by June 15th.

If there is an agreement, the cap could go as high as 91.85M next season.


This is all interesting, Deebo...what impacts would this have on the escrow?

herman

Quote from: Joe on May 21, 2024, 01:35:55 PM
Quote from: herman on May 20, 2024, 11:19:22 AMEither way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards.

I'm honestly not trying to be jerky, but I'm not sure how you can call this past season running it back. Unless you consider not trading any of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander or Marner running it back?

Because the team that finished the playoffs in '23 and started this season were quite different.

Yeah, mostly because they ran back the big 4 tickets, knowing they were paid to score and had scoring issues in the playoffs. Most of the changes were just contract expiries. I wouldn't say there were any difficult decisions made and firing Dubas and hiring Treliving really only served as an excuse to delay the break up.

And I said that because Shanahan immediately called every one of the core 4 to let them know they were safe. Some of that was probably because Matthews (and to a lesser extent Nylander) were coming up on their last seasons, and losing Matthews due to organizational dysfunction is a silly way to go about business.

However, the evidence was on the table already. All 4 were highly valued players but causing an imbalance in the roster construction due to the flat cap. One of Nylander (who was shopped pre-extension, still making only 7M) or Marner (no NMC until that July) could have been flipped for help in replacing Muzzin or spelling Tavares' 2C load. Keefe could've been relieved to get a different voice/approach to the playoff style game.

Now we've locked in Matthews and Nylander, and staring down the barrel of Marner's NMC + upcoming extension negotiation after another futile playoff performance. Shanahan turning around this end of season and saying exactly what Dubas said about needing a new mix one season later, and canning Keefe after a 2-yr extension, is extremely oof.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

cabber24

I don't want a new coach to be an excuse to observe for another year before changing anything.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Joe

Quote from: herman on May 21, 2024, 02:01:37 PM
Quote from: Joe on May 21, 2024, 01:35:55 PM
Quote from: herman on May 20, 2024, 11:19:22 AMEither way, because Shanahan opted to run it back last offseason immediately after firing Dubas, Marner and his camp hold all the cards.

I'm honestly not trying to be jerky, but I'm not sure how you can call this past season running it back. Unless you consider not trading any of Tavares, Matthews, Nylander or Marner running it back?

Because the team that finished the playoffs in '23 and started this season were quite different.

Yeah, mostly because they ran back the big 4 tickets, knowing they were paid to score and had scoring issues in the playoffs. Most of the changes were just contract expiries. I wouldn't say there were any difficult decisions made and firing Dubas and hiring Treliving really only served as an excuse to delay the break up.

And I said that because Shanahan immediately called every one of the core 4 to let them know they were safe. Some of that was probably because Matthews (and to a lesser extent Nylander) were coming up on their last seasons, and losing Matthews due to organizational dysfunction is a silly way to go about business.

However, the evidence was on the table already. All 4 were highly valued players but causing an imbalance in the roster construction due to the flat cap. One of Nylander (who was shopped pre-extension, still making only 7M) or Marner (no NMC until that July) could have been flipped for help in replacing Muzzin or spelling Tavares' 2C load. Keefe could've been relieved to get a different voice/approach to the playoff style game.

Now we've locked in Matthews and Nylander, and staring down the barrel of Marner's NMC + upcoming extension negotiation after another futile playoff performance. Shanahan turning around this end of season and saying exactly what Dubas said about needing a new mix one season later, and canning Keefe after a 2-yr extension, is extremely oof.

Thx. I don't wholly disagree with any of this. I guess part of me just doesn't trust Treliving making a big trade. I was really nervous that he was going to turn Nylander into nothing. I also fear the same thing with Marner.

Anyway we'll see.

herman

Quote from: Joe on May 21, 2024, 05:59:27 PMThx. I don't wholly disagree with any of this. I guess part of me just doesn't trust Treliving making a big trade. I was really nervous that he was going to turn Nylander into nothing. I also fear the same thing with Marner.

Anyway we'll see.

I think that's entirely fair! Treliving's record was not sterling (not sure which GMs is...) but he also did pull off an excellent trade for Tkachuk in like a 4 week turnaround. It only looks sour now because of the extensions levered sight-unseen (was that just him or was that ownership pressure or trying to make Huberdeau feel safe after getting abandoned by Florida?).

What I also see is that Treliving has a good eye for defenseman and just goes out and gets them, often turning a bad hand into something tangibly useful (Adam Fox, Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk all requested trades for some reason that I don't think Treliving was at fault for). They're not just big and long, but usually can actually skate and move the puck.

So far, I think his profile checks a number of boxes the Leafs need in this next phase of the roster.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Dappleganger

Buffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.

Bender

Quote from: Dappleganger on May 22, 2024, 10:00:56 AMBuffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.


I'd not trade him in division if it could be helped.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

bustaheims

Quote from: Dappleganger on May 22, 2024, 10:00:56 AMBuffalo has three solid young defensemen in Dahlin, Power, and Byron.

They could use a top-six winger. Maybe there is a fit there for Marner. It'd keep Marner pretty close to home.

Dahlin and Power are almost certainly untouchables, even for Marner. Byram is a nice piece, but would require another significant piece to get close - especially for a trade within the division.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

herman

I don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

RedLeaf

Quote from: herman on May 22, 2024, 01:25:04 PMI don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

Not that it matters all that much, but I think the comment about Toronto players being gods was something he was fond of.
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.." --Isaac Asimov.

Bill_Berg

Quote from: herman on May 22, 2024, 01:25:04 PMI don't think staying close to Toronto is a priority for Marner, so Buffalo probably isn't a destination he'd have in mind.

A west coast or Sun Belt city with limited or no income taxation, where people don't know you're a hockey player on the street might appeal if he's laying down his godhood.
No income tax: Nashville, Seattle, Las Vegas, Florida/Tampa, Dallas
Low income tax: Colorado, Utah, St. Louis

Cross-reference with which teams are approaching a contention threshold, have a couple of good prospects on the cusp, while the team needs more assists, and has cap space: Nashville, Utah, Seattle?

A sign and trade after July 1 would set him and the recipient team up nicely: 1 775k year + 8 years doesn't change the cap hit, but will show up more palatably on their payroll ledger.

The more I think about a trade that is realistic and doesn't suck for us, the more I suspect Marner will be gone in free agency next year.

cw

A little over 13 months from now, Leafs cap space is projected to be $51.2 mil with only 8 players currently signed
2-3 RFAs are likely to re-sign: Woll, Knies & Holmberg
Marner (if he is still here), Tavares & McCabe will be notable UFAs

Significant change in the next 13 months is inevitable.
The UFA markets of recent times haven't seemed that great.
I would not want to bet tons on the UFA market to fix the roster.
With their shallow prospect assets, they will be more reliant on it than a number of teams.

When they want to attract UFAs, here's their roster in 13 months:
Matthews
Nylander
Rielly
Kampf
Jarnkrok
Reaves
Benoit
McMann
Knies (probably re-signed)
Woll (probably re-signed)
Holmberg (probably re-signed)
Marner UFA?
Tavares UFA?
Liljegren RFA?
Robertson RFA?
Domi UFA?
Bertuzzi UFA?
Cowan?
Minten?

Bertuzzi came, in my opinion, to help him get a better contract because he could play with the core 4 and put up some points. Does someone like him come to play with the core 2 in 13 months?
You need a good roster to attract UFAs. It is iffy at the moment 13 months out.

Let's say you are Marner and you're looking at the future. If you sign and trade, that hurts the team you are going to - who are giving up assets they could otherwise have in 13 months to help Marner's new team win if he goes there as a UFA. Right now, a bunch of folks are blaming Marner for the teams shortcomings and exploring trades to Nashville, etc. In the last 8 years, he's a top 10 NHL scorer, his team's top playoff scorer, he PKs and plays two ways ... and for that, he's not getting appreciated - the team is sitting on their hands while he's getting tarred & feathered and traded away in the media. I don't think that is very smart behavior of his team. He's an asset they should be protecting - whether they're going to part ways with him or not. If they let him get pissed off, he may not be very cooperative, sympathetic and leave for nothing. They'll have a whole lot of cap space and a less attractive roster for UFAs = less likely to see a parade.

From the 2006 CBA on, we've periodically assured ourselves "we'll fill up the roster with great UFAs" ... Correct me if I'm wrong but that didn't work out so well. We were lucky to get a playoff round many of those years.

Before they cut Marner's throat, I do wonder what the longer view is. What are they going to spend this $52.x mil on in 13 months? I'm sure they'll spend it. But can they get as good price performance? I wonder.

The window for Matthews is 4 years. After that, he's probably starting to decline or departed. How they handle this Marner situation is very important. And it is not all up to them. Marner has the final say.

Bullfrog