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Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 01:20:37 AM

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Guilt Trip

Marner for Saros is a horrible return. I think that's really undervaluing Marner. Chucky, who is a better player got Hubey, Weegar, low level prospect and a late 1st. Marner should be able to get something similar.

While the cap hit is high, the 775k or whatever it is, isn't for a year. So Nash is saving 7.25M in real money for 16, plus Saros' contract which means overall Marner will cost them around 6M in cap space only and actual dollars savings at 12.25M.
Sounds like they're getting a great deal doesn't it?

Anyway if I'm trading with Nash, I'm trying to pry Askarov away from them. They won't do it but that's who I'd want or Saros plus. 

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 15, 2024, 04:11:18 PMYeah the space is valuable no doubt, but does another team get to give up less because of that? I just feel like they could get more than just Saros. Or at least would like to think that.

I've been pretty Jekyll and Hyde-y when it comes to Marner's trade value but I think there's good reason for it. On the one hand yes it's impossible to deny that we're talking about a forward who is in the prime of his career with 100-point and Selke nomination potential. On the other hand you have a player with a long and real history of playoff disappointment. A history with difficult contract negotiations. And a current contract that isn't great in all areas: 1 year left, one of the highest AAVs in the league, and an iron clad NMC.

Like sure if the Leafs put Marner on an auction for all the other teams to openly bid on him his return would be a lot more impressive than I'm expecting it to be right now. But as things stands it's important to remember that it's entirely possible Marner only waives his NMC for 1-3 teams. There's a lot of things here that are legitimately hampering the trade value of a 27-year potential 100-point, Selke calibre winger.

CarltonTheBear

#47
Quote from: Bender on May 15, 2024, 04:27:03 PMSaros is undersized, going to be 30 before the playoffs next year, had a down year this year and has inconsistent playoff results. This sets off alarm bells for me. Maybe he returns to form, but maybe not. I 100% agree we need a bona fide starter, but I don't know if this is how we should use our main trade chip. Do the Preds play a better defensive game than we do?

I'm not saying these aren't valid concerns but there are going to be red flags regardless of which direction this this whole Marner saga goes in. I mean quite literally Nashville could be expressing those same 4 concerns with Marner from their end (well aside from Marner being a little younger but still his next contract will be almost entirely in his 30s), which is why I don't think this trade is that insane. Both players have high end potential and could be at the top of their respective positions but also come with some issues.

Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington

#48
Marner with extension to the Ducks on July 1 for McTavish, Gibson with $1m retained and 2nd/3rd pick or similar prospect.

Leafs get a good young centre and a goalie albeit with higher than ideal cap despite retention - but the sort of salary dump that may be needed, a potential 2C and future trade bait. Marner gets long term dough, sunshine, less media scrutiny and the chance to be a leader on a good young team so he waives the NTC.

Leafs then sign Montour to a 6 x $7m contract.

Frank E

I like the idea of getting some cheap bluey chip prospects that are already contributing, with a solid goalie, and looking at 24-25 as a reset of sorts? 

And if it all goes well, load up a little at the deadline, and if not, offload. 

And another thing...I'm not sold with Rielly as your horse on the blueline.

And another thing...if Bert and Domi want to come back, are we good with that?

Bender

Quote from: Frank E on May 15, 2024, 05:55:12 PMI like the idea of getting some cheap bluey chip prospects that are already contributing, with a solid goalie, and looking at 24-25 as a reset of sorts? 

And if it all goes well, load up a little at the deadline, and if not, offload. 

And another thing...I'm not sold with Rielly as your horse on the blueline.

And another thing...if Bert and Domi want to come back, are we good with that?

Domi will want to. Bert I'm not too concerned about. He didn't pop the way we all thought.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Arn

Quote from: Frank E on May 15, 2024, 05:55:12 PMI like the idea of getting some cheap bluey chip prospects that are already contributing, with a solid goalie, and looking at 24-25 as a reset of sorts? 

And if it all goes well, load up a little at the deadline, and if not, offload. 

And another thing...I'm not sold with Rielly as your horse on the blueline.

And another thing...if Bert and Domi want to come back, are we good with that?

Domi yes at the right price.

Bert maybe but only at a lesser price than I think he'd want or could get elsewhere.
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

herman

#52
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

Obviously I lean on the side that says Marner and his existing contract post-July 1 carries a bit more value and promise than a 1-for-1 with Saros, especially with an extension in play. I am accounting for there being a small bidding war here because other teams saw what Florida did in getting the best player in the deal, and there being a percolating narrative of "I can fix him", or "He just needs a change of scenery away from the media circus in Toronto", which I think is largely true.

There isn't much precedence to lean on, other than Tkachuk and Dubois recently, so it really depends on what the market shapes up to be.

I am trading Marner away with the full knowledge he will have a(nother) chip on his shoulder and will likely thrive outside of the scrutiny (it'll carry over for a season or so, though). I can envision there being many interested teams (already sniffing), and a shortlist of destinations the Marners will go for, and there being a little UFA bidding frenzy to get something across the finish line before the season starts. The Leafs wouldn't take a loss on a trade for Nylander pre-extension, but I think they wouldn't be opposed to a slight loss this time around for re-modeling purposes.

I do think he'll have a tough time getting to 90s on the regular without Matthews though.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

herman

Quote from: Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington on May 15, 2024, 05:45:34 PMMarner with extension to the Ducks on July 1 for McTavish, Gibson with $1m retained and 2nd/3rd pick or similar prospect.

Leafs get a good young centre and a goalie albeit with higher than ideal cap despite retention - but the sort of salary dump that may be needed, a potential 2C and future trade bait. Marner gets long term dough, sunshine, less media scrutiny and the chance to be a leader on a good young team so he waives the NTC.

Leafs then sign Montour to a 6 x $7m contract.

This sort of deal is more of a last off-season option. I don't think Marner would waive for Anaheim given their contention window is still being constructed.

Quote from: Frank E on May 15, 2024, 05:55:12 PMI like the idea of getting some cheap bluey chip prospects that are already contributing, with a solid goalie, and looking at 24-25 as a reset of sorts? 

And if it all goes well, load up a little at the deadline, and if not, offload. 

And another thing...I'm not sold with Rielly as your horse on the blueline.

And another thing...if Bert and Domi want to come back, are we good with that?

I think we can get both Domi and Bertuzzi for less than Marner's next deal combined. Probably even less than his current cap hit. 4+6? That's a bit too rich for me on Bertuzzi and I think Domi would take a bit less for longer term (Nick Paul style, but not thaaat long).
#27 #TeamFasstholes

Palmateer29

Quote from: herman on May 16, 2024, 08:14:47 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

Obviously I lean on the side that says Marner and his existing contract post-July 1 carries a bit more value and promise than a 1-for-1 with Saros, especially with an extension in play. I am accounting for there being a small bidding war here because other teams saw what Florida did in getting the best player in the deal, and there being a percolating narrative of "I can fix him", or "He just needs a change of scenery away from the media circus in Toronto", which I think is largely true.

There isn't much precedence to lean on, other than Tkachuk and Dubois recently, so it really depends on what the market shapes up to be.

I am trading Marner away with the full knowledge he will have a(nother) chip on his shoulder and will likely thrive outside of the scrutiny (it'll carry over for a season or so, though). I can envision there being many interested teams (already sniffing), and a shortlist of destinations the Marners will go for, and there being a little UFA bidding frenzy to get something across the finish line before the season starts. The Leafs wouldn't take a loss on a trade for Nylander pre-extension, but I think they wouldn't be opposed to a slight loss this time around for re-modeling purposes.

I do think he'll have a tough time getting to 90s on the regular without Matthews though.

Pretty sure it was 2018-2019 he played on the wing with Taveres and recorded 94 points. Tavares netted 47 so that shuts down that point pretty easy.

Dappleganger

How many points does Marner get on the wing with Bedard?

cabber24

Quote from: Dappleganger on May 16, 2024, 08:39:10 AMHow many points does Marner get on the wing with Bedard?

115 and 0 in the playoffs.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

bustaheims

Quote from: Frank E on May 15, 2024, 05:55:12 PMI like the idea of getting some cheap bluey chip prospects that are already contributing, with a solid goalie, and looking at 24-25 as a reset of sorts? 

And if it all goes well, load up a little at the deadline, and if not, offload. 

And another thing...I'm not sold with Rielly as your horse on the blueline.

And another thing...if Bert and Domi want to come back, are we good with that?

Domi showed some strong chemistry with Matthews. I'd like to have him back.

The Bertuzzi that showed up for the last couple months of the season? I'd have him back in a heartbeat. The full package? I'd be open to it, if he's willing to sign for less than he earned this past season. He fit pretty well with Matthews and Domi in the end. If he goes, though, what did provide shouldn't be that difficult to replace.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Frank E on May 15, 2024, 05:55:12 PMAnd another thing...if Bert and Domi want to come back, are we good with that?

It's getting harder and harder to see Cowan going back to the OHL next season. That means our LW currently has Knies, McMann, Cowan, Holmberg/Dewar. Certainly no all-stars (yet?) but adding Bert to that group makes it seem a little crowded, both next season and beyond. So unless he's taking one heck of a discount to stay here (doubtufl) the $5-6mil or so that it'd take to re-sign him would probably be better utilized anywhere else (C, RW, D, G).

herman

Quote from: Palmateer29 on May 16, 2024, 08:31:25 AMPretty sure it was 2018-2019 he played on the wing with Taveres and recorded 94 points. Tavares netted 47 so that shuts down that point pretty easy.

Tavares went on a heater that season (big hype coming off the signing), and it was a contract season for Marner during Nylander's negotiation. Tavares never touched that again, even when reunited with Marner after things went stale.

Tavares normally hovers at 13-20 5v5 goals at just under 10% shooting.
That season he spiked to 33 5v5 goals shooting 16%. Was it Marner or a combination of Marner + Hyman + opportunity?

Matthews shoots about 15% at 5v5 regardless of his winger, save for his busted wrist season (still got to 40G).

So unless Marner lands with another shooting C that hits 15+% sh% on the regular, he's going to have a tough time getting to 90+.
#27 #TeamFasstholes