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Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 01:20:37 AM

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Guilt Trip

Leafs need to lose Kampf and Jarnkrok.

cw

Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 14, 2024, 05:11:04 PMLeafs need to lose Kampf and Jarnkrok.

Kampf has a very difficult contract to trade, waive or buyout.

cw

Quote from: herman on May 14, 2024, 02:00:49 PM
Quote from: Deebo on May 06, 2024, 08:18:55 AMCap situation:

Auston Matthews
   13,250,000 
William Nylander
   11,500,000 
John Tavares
   11,000,000 
Mitchell Marner
   10,903,000 
David Kampf
   2,400,000 
Calle Jarnkrok
   2,100,000 
Bobby McMann
   1,350,000 
Ryan Reaves
   1,350,000 
Matthew Knies
   925,000 
Pontus Holmberg
   800,000 
---------
---------
Morgan Rielly
   7,500,000 
Jake McCabe
   2,000,000 
Simon Benoit
   1,350,000 
Connor Timmins
   1,100,000 
---------
---------
Joseph Woll
   766,667 
---------
---------
Total
   68,294,667 
---------
---------
Cap
   87,700,000 
---------
---------
Room
   19,405,333 

RFAs:
Nicholas Robertson
Connor Dewar
Noah Gregor
Max Ellis
Alex Steeves

Timothy Liljegren
Maxime Lajoie

Keith Petruzelli

In addition to this list are some players who have signed ELCs/SPCs vying for a spot next season, most of them sub 900k: gonna bold the ones that likely get a look
Fraser Minten
Easton Cowan
Nikita Grebenkin
Roni Hirvonen
Ryan Tverberg
Jacob Quillan

Topi Niemela
Mikko Kokkonen
William Villeneuve
Marshall Rifai
Cade Webber
Nicolas Mattinen

Assuming there is no big trade out, the Leafs need to fill 2ish F slots, 3 D slots, and 2 G with the ~20M
Re-signing RFAs Robertson, Dewar, and Liljegren for like 1.3-1.5M each would take up < 5M of that; set aside another 5M for those waiver-bait depth forwards/defense/3rd goalie leaves about 9M for 2 real D + 1 real G. Which would put us at about 42 SPC slots used before we snag waiver-bait (probably 4 more).

I doubt RFAs Max Ellis & Keith Petruzelli will be qualified.
Not sure about Noah Gregor or Alex Steeves (one of their better AHL forwards)

QuoteRe-signing RFAs Robertson, Dewar, and Liljegren for like 1.3-1.5M each

Dewar, and Liljegren have arbitration rights.
I doubt Dewar presents much of a problem and if he did, they wouldn't make a qualifying offer.

Liljegren with arbitration rights is likely to be well north of $1.5M. Look at what Sandin got. That might be problematic. If they land a partner for Rielly and Benoit-McCabe are the 3/4 pair, they're looking at paying Liljegren pretty good bucks to be a 5/6 dman. He's just turned 25. They may already be investing in Edmundson or Lyubushkin. Liljegren is a right shot. They're thin in D talent. Could get awkward trying to keep his contract down.

herman

#33
Marner to Nashville has some legs in the media, so I'll armchair something

To NSH: Mitch Marner (RW 10.9M cap hit, 775k salary | 8 year extension starting 2025 11.5M AAV), Nick Abruzzese (C, 775k 1 year)

To TOR: Juuse Saros (G 5M 1 year), Philip Tomasino (LW/RW RFA rights), Luke Prokop (RD 793K 1 year), 2025 1st Rd pick (whichever of NSH/TBL is lower)

Nashville gets a premier playmaker and some star power immediately in Mitch Marner, whose salary is only league minimum after Toronto pays the signing bonus July 1st. Eligible for extension, the Leafs sign and trade the beleaguered star winger to the Music City to reunite with former Leafs Ryan O'Reilly and Luke Schenn. Nashville doesn't really like heavy signing bonuses, but the minimal income tax in Tennessee will be to Marner's benefit on the take home salary. Also in the trade is Nick Abruzzese, whose path to the NHL was blocked in Toronto by the rise of Matthew Knies, Fraser Minten, and Easton Cowan. He'll bring quick hands, smarts, responsible puck play, and vision to a Nashville forward group that GM Barry Trotz wants to build with more skill.

Toronto gets Juuse Saros as the headline return to instantly stabilize their uneven and oft-injured goaltending corps. Whether he extends or not may be a function of how Joseph Woll performs over a full season in the NHL. Rounding out the package are two promising prospects in Philip Tomasino and Luke Prokop. Toronto is losing a good deal of playmaking skill in trading Marner out of the fishbowl, but get some back with Tomasino's combination of effortless skating,  passing, and ability to play all three forward positions. Brad Treliving has made it abundantly clear the Leafs defense needs a new identity and likes players that are big, can skate, and take pride in shutting down opponents. Luke Prokop checks in at 6'4" 217lbs and plays the coveted righthanded defense position; coupled with a long reach and slick skating in all directions, he covers a lot of ice.

---
Feel free to shred these ideas if you see fit!
If we trade Marner and Nylander moves to C, Toronto needs top-9 right handed forwards pretty badly. Tomasino might be an odd-man out in NSH's system after a decent start under the previous coach, but could get more traction with the Leafs as Treliving and the new coach will be running 3 attack lines.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

CarltonTheBear

I don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

Bender

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

I absolutely would not want to trade Marner for a goalie. I know we need one but Marner's our best trade chip and goalies are voodoo.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Frank E

Quote from: Bender on May 15, 2024, 03:21:08 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

I absolutely would not want to trade Marner for a goalie. I know we need one but Marner's our best trade chip and goalies are voodoo.

I get where you're coming from, but...

1.  The Leafs have F'd around with goalies for most of Dubas' tenure...wouldn't it be nice to have one that's been really good for a while?  Woll is good when he can play, but he can't play much.  They need a starter.
2.  In that proposed deal, you're getting some decent d-men as well, which they need.
3.  Marner is not the best trade chip the Leafs have.


CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Bender on May 15, 2024, 03:21:08 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

I absolutely would not want to trade Marner for a goalie. I know we need one but Marner's our best trade chip and goalies are voodoo.

I mean yeah goalies are voodoo but man would it be nice to have some stability in net after 20 years of: Raycroft, Toskala, Gustavsson, Reimer, Bernier, Andersen, Campbell, Murray, Samsonov. I like Woll and all but it's impossible to ignore the glaring injury issues that consistently pop up throughout his career that will likely prevent him from ever even being able to play 60+ GP in a season let alone doing it well. Saros is probably the closest we'll get to being able to lock down a top-10 goalie in the league. I think going forward he'd be in a similar boat to guys like Bobrovsky and Markstrom: generally top level goaltending but with a crappy voodoo season one out of every four seasons. I'd take that to be honest.

I'm also skeptical we could do much better than Saros in a Marner deal.

Bill_Berg

I'm not sure straight up for Saros is the best they can do, but Herman's proposal seems like more than Nashville would pay too.

I am down with a stable goalie. They may all be voodoo, but there are the type that are 75/25 good to bad and then some (Samsonov) that are 25/75. Lets get some good voodoo around here!

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 15, 2024, 03:54:36 PMI'm not sure straight up for Saros is the best they can do, but Herman's proposal seems like more than Nashville would pay too.

It's worth pointing out that it's not quite Marner for Saros straight up. It's more like Marner for Saros + $6mil in cap space for next season. That type of additional cap space could change the scope of our free agent targets from a guy like Alexandre Carrier to Brandon Montour.

Bill_Berg

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 04:05:17 PM
Quote from: Bill_Berg on May 15, 2024, 03:54:36 PMI'm not sure straight up for Saros is the best they can do, but Herman's proposal seems like more than Nashville would pay too.

It's worth pointing out that it's not quite Marner for Saros straight up. It's more like Marner for Saros + $6mil in cap space for next season. That type of additional cap space could change the scope of our free agent targets from a guy like Alexandre Carrier to Brandon Montour.

Yeah the space is valuable no doubt, but does another team get to give up less because of that? I just feel like they could get more than just Saros. Or at least would like to think that.

Dappleganger

Trading for, or relying on a goalie is a fool's errand.

Build out a defence and system of play that exhibits quality defensive structure. Think of Vegas or Boston. It really doesn't matter who their goalie is. This is the mentality who should have when building a team.

The Leafs should be trying to build the best 6 defensemen in the league while maintaining their offensive firepower.


Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington

If we trade Marner with an extension for Saros then I'd defintely want Saros coming with an extension too, as well as some other pieces.

Bender

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:39:24 PM
Quote from: Bender on May 15, 2024, 03:21:08 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

I absolutely would not want to trade Marner for a goalie. I know we need one but Marner's our best trade chip and goalies are voodoo.

I mean yeah goalies are voodoo but man would it be nice to have some stability in net after 20 years of: Raycroft, Toskala, Gustavsson, Reimer, Bernier, Andersen, Campbell, Murray, Samsonov. I like Woll and all but it's impossible to ignore the glaring injury issues that consistently pop up throughout his career that will likely prevent him from ever even being able to play 60+ GP in a season let alone doing it well. Saros is probably the closest we'll get to being able to lock down a top-10 goalie in the league. I think going forward he'd be in a similar boat to guys like Bobrovsky and Markstrom: generally top level goaltending but with a crappy voodoo season one out of every four seasons. I'd take that to be honest.

I'm also skeptical we could do much better than Saros in a Marner deal.

Saros is undersized, going to be 30 before the playoffs next year, had a down year this year and has inconsistent playoff results. This sets off alarm bells for me. Maybe he returns to form, but maybe not. I 100% agree we need a bona fide starter, but I don't know if this is how we should use our main trade chip. Do the Preds play a better defensive game than we do?

I feel like we could address the goaltending need adequately without giving up Marner straight up.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bender

Quote from: Frank E on May 15, 2024, 03:36:22 PM
Quote from: Bender on May 15, 2024, 03:21:08 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2024, 03:11:45 PMI don't think you'd see Nashville having to give up a 1st rounder on their side. Ultimately Marner for Saros mostly straight up feels kinda right, assuming both teams see each player in their best forms. Marner is a perennial 90-point winger with Selke potential, but is coming off (yet another) disappointing playoff run. Saros is a perennial Vezina-ish goalie, but is coming off his weakest season in awhile (was still good granted). Each have 1 year left on their deals before coming UFAs. Marner's AAV is more than double what Saros' is, which made me wonder if the Leafs would need to retain a little to even things up. But on the flip side if the deal is done after July 1st Marner's remaining salary is just a paltry $775k for the season, which may make Nashville content with the difference in cap hits.

Ultimately other things could get involved if there's a desire to make it bigger but as far as the one for one aspect I think the value is already pretty darn close.

I absolutely would not want to trade Marner for a goalie. I know we need one but Marner's our best trade chip and goalies are voodoo.

I get where you're coming from, but...

1.  The Leafs have F'd around with goalies for most of Dubas' tenure...wouldn't it be nice to have one that's been really good for a while?  Woll is good when he can play, but he can't play much.  They need a starter.
2.  In that proposed deal, you're getting some decent d-men as well, which they need.
3.  Marner is not the best trade chip the Leafs have.



He is the best trade chip the Leafs have in a real world trade scenario. They aren't trading AM or Willy.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender