Quick links:  Login  |  Sign up  |  Site Rules  |  Support TMLfans

Armchair GM Thread 2024-25

Started by herman, May 05, 2024, 01:20:37 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Dappleganger on May 24, 2024, 12:04:18 PM
Quote from: Bender on May 24, 2024, 11:25:52 AMAs for the NMC point, players do have a right to stick with the NMC, but it doesn't mean management can't also push the topic. Also, in the words of Brian Burke: I didn't sign it.

It's true. Treliving didn't sign Mitch to the NMC. He could take a page out of Burke's book (literally) and say if Mitch doesn't provide a list he'll sit in the press box.

That's what Burke did with Kaberle when Tomas invoked his no trade clause. Kaberle and his agent gave one team, Boston, a day later.



There's zero chance Tre is going to do that. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt if word got out that he was a "healthy scratch" for not waiving?

princedpw

Suppose the leafs don't trade anyone. Here is a rough estimate of how much we can afford to pay free agents ... please do check my work!

10 forwards (currently under contract): 55.5M
2 RFA forwards (Robertson, Dewar): 2.2M?
4 defensemen (I'm not counting Cade Webber): 12M
1 RFA defenseman (Liljegren): 2M?
1 goalie: .8M

Total: 72.5
Cap: 87.7
Free space: 15.2
Am I getting that right?

It seems like we need at least:
A) 1 top 6 forward + 1 other forward (could be Cowan at .9M)
B) 1 top 4 defenseman + 1 other defenseman (could be a cheapo)
C) 1 starting goalie

Looks like we could splurge in one of the categories and get a 7M player and then skimp in the others.  I have no idea if there are any goalies available or what they would be going for.

Eg:
Domi (4M), Cowan (.8)
Tanev (5M), Edmunson/whoever (1.5M)
Goalie (4.2M)

That probably leaves us with a pretty terrible goalie (though we might hope for injury luck with Woll), zero offense from the defense outside of Reilly (and a risky injury record), and a slightly worse set of forwards than last year. (I think Bertuzzi was better than his numbers ... in the 2nd half of the year, every line he played on played well even if his numbers were fairly middling. Knies, McMann and maybe Robertson might be slightly more impactful next year than last)

Edit: My source for numbers: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington

I've previously suggested Marner plus extension on July 1 to Anaheim for McTavish, Gibson with £1m retained and a pick. Then Montour signed in free agency.

That would still allow cap space to potentially sign Domi, Pesce and possibly Zadorov and also potentially trade Liljegren for future trade bait.

Pity this can't and won't happen.

cw

Quote from: princedpw on May 24, 2024, 04:31:04 PMSuppose the leafs don't trade anyone. Here is a rough estimate of how much we can afford to pay free agents ... please do check my work!

10 forwards (currently under contract): 55.5M
2 RFA forwards (Robertson, Dewar): 2.2M?
4 defensemen (I'm not counting Cade Webber): 12M
1 RFA defenseman (Liljegren): 2M?
1 goalie: .8M

Total: 72.5
Cap: 87.7
Free space: 15.2
Am I getting that right?

It seems like we need at least:
A) 1 top 6 forward + 1 other forward (could be Cowan at .9M)
B) 1 top 4 defenseman + 1 other defenseman (could be a cheapo)
C) 1 starting goalie

Looks like we could splurge in one of the categories and get a 7M player and then skimp in the others.  I have no idea if there are any goalies available or what they would be going for.

Eg:
Domi (4M), Cowan (.8)
Tanev (5M), Edmunson/whoever (1.5M)
Goalie (4.2M)

That probably leaves us with a pretty terrible goalie (though we might hope for injury luck with Woll), zero offense from the defense outside of Reilly (and a risky injury record), and a slightly worse set of forwards than last year. (I think Bertuzzi was better than his numbers ... in the 2nd half of the year, every line he played on played well even if his numbers were fairly middling. Knies, McMann and maybe Robertson might be slightly more impactful next year than last)

Edit: My source for numbers: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

CapFriendly includes Cade Webber on the NHL roster which I doubt.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

Taking him off, the Leafs have 15 on the NHL roster and a little less than $19.4M cap space.
The Leafs space space available per open roster spot has them in the middle of the top 19 contending teams this season. (I ignored Pittsburgh)

Next year, if they don't resign Marner (& Tavares), ignoring the unknown signings that will be done this summer, they will have tons of cap space (top 3 among the contenders).

The bigger cap problem for them to contend over the next 4 years of Matthews deal is their shallow prospect system. They can start to restock it but most of those new picks/players will not be developed to help much in the next 4 seasons (dmen/goalies are unlikely). Maybe they can over pay some with younger picks/prospects to land some young players who are further along in their development that will not require as much cap.

More likely, they have to beat the bushes for young UFAs that flew under the draft radar - like Benoit & McMann.

Their NHL UFA focus probably should be on a decent goalie and dmen

Big Daddy

Well it's the Hopes and Dreams season so I'll leave this here:
This is my GM for a day Lineup:

Berube's Line-up
Forwards Cap Hit= $64 075 000.

Domi(3@3.5)-Matthews(13.25)-Marner(10.9 with 8@11.5 ext)
Stamkos(3@3.5)-Tavares(11 with 2@3.5 ext)-Nylander(11.5)
Knies(.925)-Holmberg(.800)-McMann(1.35)
Jarnkrok(2.1)-Kampf(2.4)-Robertson(2@1.5)
Reaves(1.35)

Defence Cap Hit=$22,075,000.

Rielly(7.5)-Tanev(3@3)
Benoit(1.35)-McCabe(2 with 3@3.5 ext)
Zadorov(5@4)-Liljegren(3@2.25)
Webber(.875)-Timmins(1.1)

Goalie Cap Hit= $1,608,000.

Woll(.765)
Hildeby(.843)

Proj. Salary Cap = 87,770,000.
My Dream Roster  = 87,758,000.

I would also sign Matt Murray to 1 year @2M. If he is healed and ready
he bumps out Hildeby or if not we get 2M LTIR. I would also sign
Klingberg to 1 year @2M so that he can continue rehab and stay on LTIR
or possibly make a return.
I would also try to make a pre draft deal with Washington for
Backstrom's 9.2M of LTIR for maybe Robertson and Timmins and then bring
back Edmundson on a 2@2.5M

I know. It's my craziness. It's my hopes and dreams. Imagine what
could be added with that LTIR space.

cw

Quote from: Guilt Trip on May 24, 2024, 01:55:42 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on May 24, 2024, 12:04:18 PM
Quote from: Bender on May 24, 2024, 11:25:52 AMAs for the NMC point, players do have a right to stick with the NMC, but it doesn't mean management can't also push the topic. Also, in the words of Brian Burke: I didn't sign it.

It's true. Treliving didn't sign Mitch to the NMC. He could take a page out of Burke's book (literally) and say if Mitch doesn't provide a list he'll sit in the press box.

That's what Burke did with Kaberle when Tomas invoked his no trade clause. Kaberle and his agent gave one team, Boston, a day later.

There's zero chance Tre is going to do that. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt if word got out that he was a "healthy scratch" for not waiving?

I heartily agree.

Times have changed. Prospective UFAs desiring a NMC (that so many of them are now getting) would probably have a problem with that and just sign with teams that honour their contracts.

The other risks are a grievance with the NHLPA (it is like constructive dismissal) and some of his teammates might not be too happy to see him treated that way - the team is breaking it's word/contract.

IJustLurkHere

Quote from: cw on May 24, 2024, 10:08:18 AMI think it is a very delicate situation. LeBrun reported no list of teams coming from his agent.
A few in the media have reported that the Leafs have not made any inquiries about trading him.

Marner is a newly wed. Both his and her families are from the Toronto area. With his contract, he's not moving twice. Maybe starting a family is underway. I think he's pretty tight with his teammates - some of them won't want him gone.

If Marner gets wind that the Leafs are floating him in a potential trade, what are their chances of changing their minds next summer when/if he's a UFA and they're looking at the 3rd most free cap space among contending teams?

I think this is a very delicate situation and the Leafs better be careful or they'll lose their top playoff scorer for nothing.

The team and the players can control a lot of the PR on this. If they don't want to lose him for nothing, they better reel in the media narrative, protect their asset and do it soon. At the very least, hopefully, they've communicated to calm his camp down. The longer it goes on, the more likely that it does not end well for the team. Worst case for Marner is he fulfils his contract and goes to another team who really wants him that he likes the most next summer and probably for a BIG bundle of dough. Some folks were mad at Sundin for declining to be traded but a lot of that passed. What is his crime? Having the team honour the deal they signed. If the team didn't want that, they should have done the deal differently.

Tavares has also indicated again that he's sticking with his NMC: a contractual right he also negotiated in good faith.

If I were to put myself in Marner's shoes, what I'd want is transparency from the team and assurance that the media narrative can be ignored.

i.e. Treliving should be (and likely is) talking to other GMs to establish the reality of any trade value. He should make sure Marner is aware of this in case it leaks, while being transparent that at this stage that's just GM diligence and the business of hockey. A lot of things have to come together to trade a $10M plus NMC player. Journalists chase leaks, so make sure if something leaks, Marner knew about it before it happened and there shouldn't be any breach of trust.
Treliving should be (and likely is) checking in on where Marner's thinking is relating to extensions and trades, and the answer to that likely isn't black & white.
Treliving should be (and likely is) assuring Marner that they won't negotiate through media, so if some writer puts out a hack piece or the talkback radio is nasty, it's just noise.

As long as Marner and Treliving have a healthy dialogue, this situation has a bunch of moving parts, but isn't really all that delicate.

Unfortunately for us fans, it probably means we don't get any meaningful updates into what's happening until a) an extension, b) a trade or c) next training camp starts. Because anything in the media on Marner likely is just noise.

herman

#27 #TeamFasstholes

Bullfrog

Quote from: cw on May 24, 2024, 05:32:00 PMThere's zero chance Tre is going to do that. Could you imagine the shit storm that would erupt if word got out that he was a "healthy scratch" for not waiving?

I heartily agree.

Times have changed. Prospective UFAs desiring a NMC (that so many of them are now getting) would probably have a problem with that and just sign with teams that honour their contracts.

The other risks are a grievance with the NHLPA (it is like constructive dismissal) and some of his teammates might not be too happy to see him treated that way - the team is breaking it's word/contract.
[/quote]

If I remember correctly, the NHL requires a team to put forth their best roster. There's wiggle room for resting players, scratches for poor play, etc., but sitting a healthy 90-point player with Selke votes for anything more than a game will raise eyebrows.

princedpw

Another thing to remember on Marner is that fans have very short memories.  If he leads the leafs in scoring next year (entirely possible or even likely if he's healthy), fans will appreciate his contributions...

The worst time to make a trade is when you feel you have to.  Hard to imagine a scenario in which trading Marner makes the team better.

One thing I would be excited about for next year is a full season of Marner/Matthews/Nylander split across 3 lines to see how that works.

Dappleganger

Who wouldn't want to see what effect Berube can have on Marner?

herman

#146
https://twitter.com/thefourthperiod/status/1794497384300290326
QuoteThere is no doubt in my mind Marner will be extremely disappointed if the Maple Leafs opt for a change, and he is entirely within his right to hold firm and exercise his NMC. However, if the Maple Leafs decide they want to explore the trade market and ask Marner for a list of teams he would waive his NMC for, it is my understanding he will consider his options, as I reported earlier this month. Teams like Nashville, Vegas, Chicago and Dallas are just four clubs I would keep an eye on, if/when Leafs GM Brad Treliving goes shopping.

QuoteOne veteran forward the Maple Leafs may try to add this summer: David Perron.
#27 #TeamFasstholes

cabber24

I read online a proposed Theodore and Hill for Marner, all similar ages and on expiring deals. I like it for the balance it gives the Leafs but I think it unbalances things in Vegas when they become cap-heavy upfront. Anyway, not Marner hate but a reallocation.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Arn

So is there any way we can have:

Knies - Matthews - XXXX
Stamkos - Nylander - XXXX
Tavares - XXXX - Marner
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington

Quote from: Arn on May 29, 2024, 08:39:58 AMSo is there any way we can have:

Knies - Matthews - XXXX
Stamkos - Nylander - XXXX
Tavares - XXXX - Marner


In the sense that Stamkos probably isn't leaving Tampa, no.

Might be able to have that lineup by calling up Minten and Cowan if Stamkos signs for something like $6m. Under the assumption that money will also need to be spent on a decent D (Pesce at $6m?) and goalies (Broissot and Jones at $4m combined?) this would probably mean ditching Jarnkrok, Reaves and Timmins, needing to resign Liljegren and Robertson on the cheap and a bargain basement bottom pair D. Not sure that's a route we'd want to go down.

Also, if Stamkos gets say $6m that probably means Tavares will probably want that next summer too. Though could always just let him go.