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Jets vs. Maple Leafs - Jan. 27th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

Started by CarltonTheBear, January 26, 2024, 10:53:13 PM

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cw

Quote from: bustaheims on January 30, 2024, 08:42:04 AM
Quote from: cw on January 29, 2024, 05:29:07 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on January 29, 2024, 10:28:32 AM
Quote from: cw on January 27, 2024, 11:51:22 PMNot enough games to be truly conclusive but ..

Samsonov since returning:

4GP 3W 1L .750 pts win%
.940 save%
1.48 GAA

He's played well in every game.

When Woll returns, we might have 3 half decent goalies.
That was not what I was thinking when Jones got called up.

Meanwhile, since the back-to-backs against San Jose, Jones has put up these numbers:

1-3-1
.857 Sv%
4.10 GAA

I think the real Martin Jones has reemerged. It hasn't been unusual for him to have a hot start with a new team or at the beginning of the season, but, inevitably, his performance has dropped off to below average levels.

I do not think 5 games is the real Martin Jones. It is kind of like the snippet of Samsonov's 4 games - not enough games to tell us much reliably.

In his 17 games, Martin did pretty well:
.911 save%, 2.64 GAA (GAA is best of the 3 Leafs goalies who played a similar number of games)

Among goalies with 15 or more games, he is 17th out of 59 in save% and 20th out of 59 in GAA. Those are fair numbers for a starter and near the top of the class for a backup.

I do not think an uptick of Jones numbers is that crazy to expect because his last 3 seasons in SJ & the season in Philly - they were not good defensive teams - near the bottom of the league to bottom 3rd (one season). The Kraken in '23 were an expansion team. He comes to the Leafs and I think they were an improvement over what he'd played behind. So that would help his numbers some.

Here's something else I still think:
He won't clear waivers.
I expect they'll carry 3 goalies until Woll has established himself.

If Jones hadn't come in and done what he did, the Leafs probably wouldn't even be in a wildcard spot.

I'm not saying Jones wasn't great for a stretch there, but to say the last 5 seasons aren't the real Jones and the few good weeks he had to start his Leaf career are more indicative of who he is . . . that's just crazy talk.

He had good stretches like that with every team he played for. His play inevitably dropped off dramatically. That's just who he is now.

I still feel those were lousy teams and the Leafs are better. So his numbers are likely to be a little better with the Leafs and the perception of him will improve with that.

So I paused this post and checked that out.
Here are the splits and that seems to be true.
Yr Team GP sav% GAA
24 Tor1 17 .911 2.64
23 Sea1 25 .888 2.96
23 Sea2 24 .889 2.94
22 Phi1 17 .901 3.56
22 Phi2 22 .896 3.47
21 SJ 1 16 .884 3.64
21 SJ 2 22 .906 2.96
20 SJ 1 26 .891 3.23
20 SJ 2 19 .897 2.97
19 SJ 1 31 .897 2.88
19 SJ 2 32 .896 2.96

His best save% and GAA split is with the Leafs who are arguably the best defensive team he's played with during that time. I didn't know that before I looked. But I expected it. Some of the dates were funny with Covid so my splits may not be perfect. I tried to get close to 17 GP that he has this season as a minimum.

Trade him to a bottom feeder with weak defense and his numbers are likely to fall back down - like nearly all goalies.

That stretch of 5 games you cited was not a case of him entirely sucking. He let in a few that he'd probably like back but the team in front of him played very poorly defensively and gave up glorious scoring chances - like what they did to Samsonov at the start of the season.

The other thing about him is that his style reminds me some of Belfour. Not identical. Not the same temperament - he's more relaxed. But he tends to play the angles, make himself big and let the puck hit him. Stays inside the posts. Belfour extended his career doing that. It is not a style as reliant on youthful reaction time. He's very calm. Seems unflappable. That combination is likely to age well.

This guy doesn't belong in the AHL right now in my opinion. He could probably give bottom feeder starters a run for their job. I bet more than a few NHL teams wouldn't mind him as a back up. Leafs were lucky to get him.

Bullfrog

I'm not convinced he'd get claimed. Most teams have a Jones.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Bullfrog on January 31, 2024, 08:40:19 AMI'm not convinced he'd get claimed. Most teams have a Jones.

Thing is it only takes 1 team to have a need for him and then we go from having an above average insurance option at goalie to potentially needing rely on Hildeby or maybe Petruzzelli if the Leafs are dead set on not giving Hildeby action in the NHL this season. And a strong 3G for this team is still pretty necessary considering that Woll hasn't shaken the band-aid boy reputation and for all we know 1 bad game from Samsonov can have him spiraling out of control again.

We already saw one goalie get claimed off waivers this month in Spencer Martin and I'd argue he's a worse option than Jones especially when you factor in experience, which teams certainly covet even if it seems like just a buzz word.

Off the top of my head I could see a former team of his in Philly being pretty interested in a stop gap goalie right now considering what's going on with Hart. Then just scanning some rosters/stats of some playoff or likely playoff bound teams and Tampa, New Jersey, and Colorado all have back-ups that are underperforming and/or aren't being trusted right now so they could all be in the market for a cheap veteran goalie that could be picked up with zero assets.

cw


In the wake of Samsonov's great save, this was fun to stumble into

cw

Quote from: Bullfrog on January 31, 2024, 08:40:19 AMI'm not convinced he'd get claimed. Most teams have a Jones.

He has better numbers than all the goalies on the 10 worst NHL teams in GAA.
Varlamov is close with his numbers - maybe debatable there.

Of those teams, New Jersey and Tampa Bay are in the hunt for a wild card spot. A better backup might make the difference. I'm sure there are other candidate teams in the other 22 because he's 17th in save % and 20th in GAA out of the 59 NHL goalies playing 15 games or more (Buffalo backup maybe for example?) .
There will be some more injuries to goalies.

It would not shock me if Woll returns to form and Samsonov continues his recovery playing well, if they dangled him and got a low draft pick for him. Then again, maybe it would be better if they move Samsonov for cap space if Woll is playing well and sign Jones as backup for next year to save them cap space next season.