2023 Training Camp Thread

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1704876419187130527
https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1704911784963178864

NHL lines then stand out as:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Tavares-Lafferty
Domi-Nylander-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Klingberg
Giordano-Liljegren

... which is what I expected, sorry Robertson. If he has a great camp though, and if he's capable of playing his off wing, there's some potential for him to bump Lafferty out of the top-9 and give Tavares a couple of kids to centre.

[Dappleganger]

Thanks for the responses. If anything I'm still seeing this as a long shot. I'm with Frank, I don't think this lasts into the regular season.

I have to give Keefe props here though. Better to try Nylander at C in the preseason than to, let's say, a deciding game in the playoffs. 😃

[Frank E]

I had to google Gregor. 

[cw]

Do we really want Tavares or Nylander and their combined 76 goals playing 3rd line minutes?

I don't see it quite that way.

Both those players will see PP time - so it will be above 3rd line minutes.

And maybe an extreme example to convey the concept:
Sundin turned Hoglund into a 29 goal scorer
Good players can make those around them better.
The entire 3rd line is likely to chip in more goals than they would with Kampf there.

As well, they've got 4 guys down the middle - 3 of which are above 50% in draws and a 4th who will probably come in close to 50% which beats the heck of out of Kerfoot-types with 44% on the draw.

The big question for me is how much exposure Nylander might be defensively in that role. If the 3rd line scores more but allows even more goals against, it obviously kills the purpose or benefit.

The shift or purpose might be to use Tavares in more of a defensive role.

Before they traded for Ryan O'Reilly, I was kicking this around.
No guarantees but it seems worthy of a look under the circumstances.
I suspect it will be ok during the regular season but less likely to be successful come playoff time.

[CarltonTheBear]

OK. I'll frame it another way. Do we think Tavares puts up 36 goals playing with Jarnkrok and whomever else is going to be on the 3rd line? Do we think Nylander puts up 40 with similar talent on his wings?

I get that Tavares is slowing and it may be time to have him on the wing. I'm not really fond of splitting them though.

I think it's worth pointing out that Tavares and Nylander weren't exactly that great together at 5-on-5 last season. Only 4 of Tavares' 36 goals came with Nylander on the ice at 5-on-5, and only 7 of Nylander's 40 goals came with Tavares as his C at 5-on-5. The majority of each of their individual success last season came either on the powerplay or when Nylander played with Matthews and Tavares with Marner. So splitting them up this season shouldn't really play a role in whether or not they repeat last season numbers because that's not why they did well to begin with.

In about 420 5-on-5 minutes last season the Leafs were actually outscored 18-23 with Nylander and Tavares on the ice. That's a per 60 goals rate of just 2.57. For comparison:

Tavares/Nylander: GF% of 43.90 and GF/60 of 2.57
Matthews/Marner: GF% of 62.26 and GF/60 of 3.67   
Matthews/Nylander: GF% of 73.08 and GF/60 of 4.52
Tavares/Marner: GF% of 65.96 and GF/60 if 3.38

These stats would suggest a) Matthews and Nylander should probably play together more and b) if they aren't going to play together then Nylander playing with Tavares probably shouldn't automatically be the next option.

[Frank E]

That's some good information there C.

[herman]

https://twitter.com/Arunthings/status/1704937922988761594
Rinkside notes from Day 1

[herman]

https://twitter.com/LeafsNews/status/1704925063298838837

[herman]

I love that the team and everyone are talking up Willy; he had a monster season last year. I hope the C experiment largely sticks; Nylander is generally at his best when he's the top banana on his line getting lots of puck touches, rather than deferring to his centre. Second best shot on the team, best wheels and handling in transition, 1b or 2nd in passing vision/creativity, his hands in tight might rival Matthews' for second behind Tavares.

The super fun neat thing to remember is that Auston Matthews (a Maple Leaf for the next 5 years at least) still nearly outproduced Nylander in fewer games, with a couple of clear injuries hampering his goal scoring, playing a harder defensive matchup, in the worst goal scoring pace of his career aside from his rookie season.

The extra super fun neat thing is that we have both of them! and Mitch and John (once upon a time a 40G+ C too)

[OldTimeHockey]

OK. I'll frame it another way. Do we think Tavares puts up 36 goals playing with Jarnkrok and whomever else is going to be on the 3rd line? Do we think Nylander puts up 40 with similar talent on his wings?

I get that Tavares is slowing and it may be time to have him on the wing. I'm not really fond of splitting them though.

I think it's worth pointing out that Tavares and Nylander weren't exactly that great together at 5-on-5 last season. Only 4 of Tavares' 36 goals came with Nylander on the ice at 5-on-5, and only 7 of Nylander's 40 goals came with Tavares as his C at 5-on-5. The majority of each of their individual success last season came either on the powerplay or when Nylander played with Matthews and Tavares with Marner. So splitting them up this season shouldn't really play a role in whether or not they repeat last season numbers because that's not why they did well to begin with.

In about 420 5-on-5 minutes last season the Leafs were actually outscored 18-23 with Nylander and Tavares on the ice. That's a per 60 goals rate of just 2.57. For comparison:

Tavares/Nylander: GF% of 43.90 and GF/60 of 2.57
Matthews/Marner: GF% of 62.26 and GF/60 of 3.67   
Matthews/Nylander: GF% of 73.08 and GF/60 of 4.52
Tavares/Marner: GF% of 65.96 and GF/60 if 3.38

These stats would suggest a) Matthews and Nylander should probably play together more and b) if they aren't going to play together then Nylander playing with Tavares probably shouldn't automatically be the next option.

I'll zip it now :)

[hobarth]

Nylander, JT, Marner and Matthews on 3 separate lines means less icetime for at least one of these players which isn't a solution to anything, the idea of Austin and/or Nylander Pking is a great idea. No shot blocking, that's probably the least effective way to PK.   

[CarltonTheBear]

the idea of Austin and/or Nylander Pking is a great idea. No shot blocking, that's probably the least effective way to PK.   

Anyone care to guess which forward led the entire league in shots blocked last season?

[cw]

Nylander, JT, Marner and Matthews on 3 separate lines means less icetime for at least one of these players which isn't a solution to anything, the idea of Austin and/or Nylander Pking is a great idea. No shot blocking, that's probably the least effective way to PK.   

If they're down a goal and going on the PK, Matthews and Marner, two of the teams leading shot blockers from last season, would not be a bad thought on the PK - to try to steal a goal back. Quinn did that effectively with Sundin & Mogilny. Apparently, Keefe is considering Matthews for some PK duty as they're a little thin in that area among the forwards. That would open up some ice time for Nylander/Tavares.

As well, there's no firm rule that a 3rd liner can't get spot duty elsewhere. The 9th forward could take a seat while someone gets an extra shift a period. If they're down later in the game, they'll shorten the bench trying to tie it up. If they're up, why burn out the star players?

Against teams with less depth, a more talented third line might exploit that more effectively. They can always revert to stacking two lines when the need arises. It has to make it more difficult to coach against.

I do not see the big harm looking at doing this beyond the early games when they're shaking it out.

[Bullfrog]

I'm interested in seeing such talent up-and-down the lineup. However, I'm also a proponent of sticking with what's working. Nylander got 40 goals and 87 points in a particular position. I'd be tempted to stick with what works.

That said, we'd actually be pretty thin on a 3rd/4th line centre

[herman]

From NaturalStatTrick's Line Combo tool

2022-23 5v5 Combos	TOI	GF60	GA60	Diff
No Big 4	1500.37	2.04	2.04	0
Tavares-Marner	481.01	3.37	1.75	1.62
Matthews-Marner	470.49	3.57	2.55	1.02
Matthews-Nylander	443.06	4.74	1.49	3.25
Tavares-Nylander	358.55	2.67	3.01	-0.34
Nylander-Other	216.57	2.49	2.49	0
Matthews-Other	127.1	1.89	0.94	0.95
Tavares-Other	117.45	1.02	4.08	-3.06
Marner-Other	79.24	2.27	2.27	0
Nylander-Matthews-Marner	33.13	3.61	0	3.61
Nylander-Tavares-Marner	33.13	1.81	3.61	-1.8
Tavares-Matthews-Marner	32.13	5.58	0	5.58
Tavares-Matthews-Nylander	25.24	2.36	7.09	-4.73

This is just glorified +/- and WoWYs so take it with a grain of whatever seasoning you prefer.

• Marner basically never plays without $$$ at 5v5 (waste of his skillset to set up the likes of Kerfoot/Kampf/Engvall)
• Matthews-Nylander, Tavares-Marner gives the best overall offensive balance: the only trade off is no shutdown top-6 line, though a very good defensive LW with 34-88 could do the trick.
• Nylander boosts eventfulness
• Unless properly mitigated (i.e. Marner involvement), Tavares causes a lot of DZ action
• Any Big 3 combos are negligible noise and also high-leverage situations (post PK or OZ icing plays)
• Matthews is a beast