Quick links:  Login  |  Sign up  |  Site Rules  |  Support TMLfans

Leafs to place Murray on LTIR

Started by CarltonTheBear, July 26, 2023, 11:10:29 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.


CarltonTheBear

Murray on LTIR, assuming he remains there for the entire season, is the best case scenario for the Leafs.

If this is a situation where he could be ready to play later on in the season though they're just pushing the problem down the line.

Significantly Insignificant

"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

CarltonTheBear

#3
Current roster/cap number after this:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Kampf-Jarnkrok
McMann/Holmberg-Lafferty-Reaves

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Liljegren
Giordano-Klingberg
Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

That roster is still $450-500k over the cap, depending on the 12th forward. So another move is still required.

Possible options:
1) Waive/trade Timmins. This gives the Leafs just a 20-man roster and $600k of cap space that can't really be used.

2) Waive/trade Lafferty, replace with Gambrell (league min). This still puts the Leafs $84k over the salary cap. They would still need to waive/trade Timmins, but that would give them enough cap space to carry either a 13th forward or 7th defenceman who makes under $1mil.

3) Trade Jarnkrok. This gives the Leafs enough cap space to keep Lafferty, Timmins, and enough cap space to carry both a 13th forward and a 7th defenceman on the roster. So arguably hurts the roster the most since Jarnkrok is the more valuable player of the 3 but it provides the most cap space/roster flexibility.

4) Screw it, trade all 3 of Jarnkrok, Timmins, and Lafferty. This gives the Leafs a 20-man roster with $2.3mil in cap space if Treliving had his eye on either a different middle-6 forward option and/or a physical defenceman.

Dappleganger

Waive Reaves or Timmins. Doesn't anyone think both wouldn't clear? If you take Timmins you HAVE to play him (or press box him) and who in their right mind would want to pick up 3 years of Reaves?

If Treliving thought 'we'll give Reaves 3 years so no one will claim him on waivers.' Kudos.

cw

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 26, 2023, 11:10:29 AMhttps://twitter.com/leafspr/status/1684232270704414720

Buyout window closed due to no one placed on waivers.

By my calculation they have 21 roster players (not on LTIR) and are $0.46 mil over the cap.
They could start Knies with the Marlies without exposing another Leafs player to waivers.
They could waive Timmins, McMann, or Lafferty to get below the cap.
They could trade a player to get below the cap.

I suspect a trade because they need a physical dman to replace Holl/Schenn.

If Murray starts the season on LTIR and a few weeks later says "I'm ok to play now ...", they have a BIG cap problem. At his age, it is hard to imagine Robidas island appealing to him. $8 mil 2023-24 salary is almost untradeable with no cap space to retain and no signing bonus eating a bunch of it. I suspect they're just kicking the can down the road hoping for some sort of a break.

CarltonTheBear

#6
Quote from: Dappleganger on July 26, 2023, 11:38:00 AMWaive Reaves or Timmins. Doesn't anyone think both wouldn't clear? If you take Timmins you HAVE to play him (or press box him) and who in their right mind would want to pick up 3 years of Reaves?

If Treliving thought 'we'll give Reaves 3 years so no one will claim him on waivers.' Kudos.

Well, they aren't waiving Reaves so just scratch that possibility off immediately.

Lafferty and Timmins are both interesting waiver possibilities though. If their cap space gets used on someone else (physical D) It might be worth keeping them with the expectation they'll be going on waivers at the end of camp. If they clear, that's solid depth at no cap hit on the Marlies. If right now teams are only offering very minimal returns then passing on those could be worth the waivers risk.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: cw on July 26, 2023, 11:40:02 AMIf Murray starts the season on LTIR and a few weeks later says "I'm ok to play now ...", they have a BIG cap problem. At his age, it is hard to imagine Robidas island appealing to him. $8 mil 2023-24 salary is almost untradeable with no cap space to retain and no signing bonus eating a bunch of it. I suspect they're just kicking the can down the road hoping for some sort of a break.

My gut tells me that if this wasn't a "he's finished" situation then the Leafs would have still tried to force a buyout on the grounds that he was "cleared" to play in Toronto's last hockey game. Murray and his camp could contest it, and eventually something probably gets settled with an arbitrator but his contract is still bought out.

LTIR'ing him now with the possibility he'll still play this season is a massive, massive risk.

Frank E

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 26, 2023, 11:51:31 AM
Quote from: cw on July 26, 2023, 11:40:02 AMIf Murray starts the season on LTIR and a few weeks later says "I'm ok to play now ...", they have a BIG cap problem. At his age, it is hard to imagine Robidas island appealing to him. $8 mil 2023-24 salary is almost untradeable with no cap space to retain and no signing bonus eating a bunch of it. I suspect they're just kicking the can down the road hoping for some sort of a break.

My gut tells me that if this wasn't a "he's finished" situation then the Leafs would have still tried to force a buyout on the grounds that he was "cleared" to play in Toronto's last hockey game. Murray and his camp could contest it, and eventually something probably gets settled with an arbitrator but his contract is still bought out.

LTIR'ing him now with the possibility he'll still play this season is a massive, massive risk.

Isn't the "indefinitely" part of the press release is sort of indicating that this is probably it?

Joe

Quote from: Dappleganger on July 26, 2023, 11:38:00 AMWaive Reaves or Timmins. Doesn't anyone think both wouldn't clear? If you take Timmins you HAVE to play him (or press box him) and who in their right mind would want to pick up 3 years of Reaves?

If Treliving thought 'we'll give Reaves 3 years so no one will claim him on waivers.' Kudos.

You can't waive a guy you just signed as a UFA before he plays a single minute for the team.

I know there's no rule preventing that, but come on, no team would ever do that.

herman

Every time he hits the ice, Nylander beans him in the helmet and the cap is fine.

Itching powder in his equipment for good measure.
#27

cw

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 26, 2023, 11:51:31 AM
Quote from: cw on July 26, 2023, 11:40:02 AMIf Murray starts the season on LTIR and a few weeks later says "I'm ok to play now ...", they have a BIG cap problem. At his age, it is hard to imagine Robidas island appealing to him. $8 mil 2023-24 salary is almost untradeable with no cap space to retain and no signing bonus eating a bunch of it. I suspect they're just kicking the can down the road hoping for some sort of a break.

My gut tells me that if this wasn't a "he's finished" situation then the Leafs would have still tried to force a buyout on the grounds that he was "cleared" to play in Toronto's last hockey game. Murray and his camp could contest it, and eventually something probably gets settled with an arbitrator but his contract is still bought out.

LTIR'ing him now with the possibility he'll still play this season is a massive, massive risk.

The part I'm having trouble with: he was cleared to play towards the end of their playoffs.
And now, suddenly, his career is over?
What happened?

My guess:
Leafs Management calls "Matt's agent? We'd like to buy Matt out"
Matt's agent "I'll get back to you ..."
...
Matt's agent "Spoke with Matt. Matt isn't feeling good. He's still a little wobbly. So you can't buy him out. He needs the full $8 mil for next season."

To go from cleared to play to career is over is a pretty big jump with no additional injury ... they may have a massive risk.

What choice did the Leafs have?
Buyout? Can't, he's hurt and it might cost him millions.
Trade? Can't trade that $8 mil salary without giving up a 1st plus plus because they're desperate and everyone knows it
LTIR? Houston, we have undertaken a massive risk ... cross your fingers ...

CarltonTheBear

#12
Quote from: cw on July 26, 2023, 12:30:06 PMThe part I'm having trouble with: he was cleared to play towards the end of their playoffs.
And now, suddenly, his career is over?
What happened?

Well it's worth pointing out players get "cleared" to play in the playoffs all the time when they're still hurt. It's pretty much impossible that Murray was 100% at that time. And that also could have played a role in Woll getting the nod ahead of him after Samsonov's injury.

It's also possible this doesn't necessarily mean his career is over. A year off properly recovering and rehabbing whatever lingering issues that he's been playing through over the years (with probably the best medical team in the NHL) while still collecting his full salary could end up actually extending his career a little bit.

Bender

Quote from: cw on July 26, 2023, 11:40:02 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 26, 2023, 11:10:29 AMhttps://twitter.com/leafspr/status/1684232270704414720

Buyout window closed due to no one placed on waivers.

By my calculation they have 21 roster players (not on LTIR) and are $0.46 mil over the cap.
They could start Knies with the Marlies without exposing another Leafs player to waivers.
They could waive Timmins, McMann, or Lafferty to get below the cap.
They could trade a player to get below the cap.

I suspect a trade because they need a physical dman to replace Holl/Schenn.

If Murray starts the season on LTIR and a few weeks later says "I'm ok to play now ...", they have a BIG cap problem. At his age, it is hard to imagine Robidas island appealing to him. $8 mil 2023-24 salary is almost untradeable with no cap space to retain and no signing bonus eating a bunch of it. I suspect they're just kicking the can down the road hoping for some sort of a break.

I would have a hard time thinking they didn't consult Murray beforehand about being absent a year if they could've just not put him on LTIR and just bought him out. I really don't see this as a gamble.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Rob

I don't think the issue with Murray is a strictly physical one.