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A fair return for Nylander ?

Started by RedLeaf, July 08, 2023, 10:33:00 AM

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RedLeaf

With negotiations apparently at a stalemate , if the Leafs are left with no other option but to trade Nylander, what do you think a fair return would look like?
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.." --Isaac Asimov.

Bullfrog

Noah Hanifin, Jakob Pelletier, and 1st.

Dougie Hamilton

RedLeaf

Quote from: Bullfrog on July 08, 2023, 11:40:01 AMNoah Hanifin, Jakob Pelletier, and 1st.

Dougie Hamilton

A non-protected 1st coming from Calgary could end up being a real high pick with the way things are shaping up there this off season
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.." --Isaac Asimov.

Frank E

Tough to get all the value for a guy on the last year of his deal...unless it's a team willing to extend him at $10m.

Significantly Insignificant

I'm not so sure that Nylander's ask for 10 million is all that outrageous.  Huberdeau is making 10.5.  Looking at the first 8 years of their careers, and the numbers are pretty similar.  Also Nylander has played in more playoff games, and have about the same points per game in the playoffs as Huberdeau. So if you are signing Nylander for 8 years, that seems to be around where he should slot in.
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 08, 2023, 05:52:18 PMI'm not so sure that Nylander's ask for 10 million is all that outrageous.  Huberdeau is making 10.5.  Looking at the first 8 years of their careers, and the numbers are pretty similar.  Also Nylander has played in more playoff games, and have about the same points per game in the playoffs as Huberdeau. So if you are signing Nylander for 8 years, that seems to be around where he should slot in.
Tkachuk makes 9.5, Meier 8.8...no way in hell should he get more then Chucky.

Significantly Insignificant

Quote from: Guilt Trip on July 08, 2023, 05:55:20 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 08, 2023, 05:52:18 PMI'm not so sure that Nylander's ask for 10 million is all that outrageous.  Huberdeau is making 10.5.  Looking at the first 8 years of their careers, and the numbers are pretty similar.  Also Nylander has played in more playoff games, and have about the same points per game in the playoffs as Huberdeau. So if you are signing Nylander for 8 years, that seems to be around where he should slot in.
Tkachuk makes 9.5, Meier 8.8...no way in hell should he get more then Chucky.

I think he's a better point producer than Meier.  Tkachuk signed his deal in a no tax state, and signed when he was an RFA, not a UFA.  Huberdeau signed in a similar position to Nylander.
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

L K

Quote from: Guilt Trip on July 08, 2023, 05:55:20 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 08, 2023, 05:52:18 PMI'm not so sure that Nylander's ask for 10 million is all that outrageous.  Huberdeau is making 10.5.  Looking at the first 8 years of their careers, and the numbers are pretty similar.  Also Nylander has played in more playoff games, and have about the same points per game in the playoffs as Huberdeau. So if you are signing Nylander for 8 years, that seems to be around where he should slot in.
Tkachuk makes 9.5, Meier 8.8...no way in hell should he get more then Chucky.

Meier's last three seasons: 209GP 87G 86A 173P  (and 24 points in 46 career playoff games)
Nylander's last three seasons: 214GP 91G 118A 209P (and 40 points in 50 career playoff games)

I think Nylander's number has to come above 9 but I agree that he should probably make less than Tkachuck so my reasonable number would probably be in the 9.2-9.3 range.  More than that and I think we are just going to bash our heads into the wall of "how do we build a team around this salary".

lamajama

Not to keep hashing over a tired trope but Chucky nets far more than Willie would at same salary. I have seen articles that detail some machinations that close that gap but still...
I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

Guilt Trip

Quote from: L K on July 08, 2023, 07:29:03 PM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on July 08, 2023, 05:55:20 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 08, 2023, 05:52:18 PMI'm not so sure that Nylander's ask for 10 million is all that outrageous.  Huberdeau is making 10.5.  Looking at the first 8 years of their careers, and the numbers are pretty similar.  Also Nylander has played in more playoff games, and have about the same points per game in the playoffs as Huberdeau. So if you are signing Nylander for 8 years, that seems to be around where he should slot in.
Tkachuk makes 9.5, Meier 8.8...no way in hell should he get more then Chucky.

Meier's last three seasons: 209GP 87G 86A 173P  (and 24 points in 46 career playoff games)
Nylander's last three seasons: 214GP 91G 118A 209P (and 40 points in 50 career playoff games)

I think Nylander's number has to come above 9 but I agree that he should probably make less than Tkachuck so my reasonable number would probably be in the 9.2-9.3 range.  More than that and I think we are just going to bash our heads into the wall of "how do we build a team around this salary".
And that's my point...worth more then Meier but not Chucky. 

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 08, 2023, 06:05:25 PM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on July 08, 2023, 05:55:20 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on July 08, 2023, 05:52:18 PMI'm not so sure that Nylander's ask for 10 million is all that outrageous.  Huberdeau is making 10.5.  Looking at the first 8 years of their careers, and the numbers are pretty similar.  Also Nylander has played in more playoff games, and have about the same points per game in the playoffs as Huberdeau. So if you are signing Nylander for 8 years, that seems to be around where he should slot in.
Tkachuk makes 9.5, Meier 8.8...no way in hell should he get more then Chucky.

I think he's a better point producer than Meier.  Tkachuk signed his deal in a no tax state, and signed when he was an RFA, not a UFA.  Huberdeau signed in a similar position to Nylander.
He is better then Meier offensively and should make more then him. He's not remotely close to Tkachuk. I don't care where Tkachuk signed, the cap is the same and shouldn't get as much.
Huberdeau was overpaid in hindsight and that's on Treliving. Having said that he has been over a pt/gm player 4 times and has the record for most assists in a season by a LW. He was also coming off a 115pt season. Willy has been a pt/gmplayer once. If Willy was coming off a 115pt season you'd have an argument. He's not even close and his defensive game is severely lacking.

nutman

I think our best move is to deal him to the sharks for Karlsson. We have knies and Roberson ready to step up. Then all that's left to do is deal off Murray.

Nik

#12
In the three years prior to their deals being signed Tkachuk edged Nylander in PPG by a hair (1.01 to .98) while Nylander had a better GPG (.43 to .39) and playoff record (25 points in 25 games to 12 in 18 for Tkachuk)

Combine that with cap inflation, the Florida tax situation and the fact that I think Tkachuk still had a RFA year left and I'm not sure Nylander asking for more than Tkachuk did is all that out there.

But more to the point I really think we're missing the point of what free agent asks are about if we're looking at it in the context of "Is he better than this one particular player" and not "What would he likely be offered as a free agent".

I really think sometimes we tend to lose a little bit of common sense when we talk about pro sports negotiations. If you went to your boss with a request for a raise, which of these two things would be more influential in what you asked for; arguments your boss made about how good you are at your job? Or having an actual offer from another company for the salary you want?
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Rob

Quote from: Nik on July 09, 2023, 09:33:32 AMIn the three years prior to their deals being signed Tkachuk edged Nylander in PPG by a hair (1.01 to .98) while Nylander had a better GPG (.43 to .39) and playoff record (25 points in 25 games to 12 in 18 for Tkachuk)

Combine that with cap inflation, the Florida tax situation and the fact that I think Tkachuk still had a RFA year left and I'm not sure Nylander asking for more than Tkachuk did is all that out there.

But more to the point I really think we're missing the point of what free agent asks are about if we're looking at it in the context of "Is he better than this one particular player" and not "What would he likely be offered as a free agent".

I really think sometimes we tend to lose a little bit of common sense when we talk about pro sports negotiations. If you went to your boss with a request for a raise, which of these two things would be more influential in what you asked for; arguments your boss made about how good you are at your job? Or having an actual offer from another company for the salary you want?

That's the crux of the issue.

The proposal is, Nylander isn't worth over $10m a year, let's find a sucker who thinks he is, fleece them in a trade, profit!

If Nylander makes it to FA status, you just know that some team out there is going to give him $11m+ a year.  Yes it sucks for the Leafs for another year until #91 contract expires.  You just don't find players like Nylander for zero acquisition costs. 

PAY THE MAN!  Let the chips fall where they may and deal with the cap as you go. 

azzurri63

Not sure how negotiations are going with Willy but if I was Trev I would be all over Keller from the Coyotes. Said he wants out. Similar numbers to Willy, only 24 and signed for another 5 years at just over 7 million. Don't think you'll be losing much for offence. Arizona I'm sure not on Nylander's list but maybe a 3 team deal. Great replacement, good contract and save us a couple million a year at least. Thoughts?