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What are they worth?

Started by hobarth, July 03, 2023, 03:36:31 PM

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Bill_Berg

Just sign Matthews so I can enjoy the damn summer.

IJustLurkHere

Quote from: Nik on August 02, 2023, 12:09:03 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on August 02, 2023, 12:01:39 PMThat might be what Matthews is expecting, but this speaks to Nik's point.  Matthews is absorbing the risk that someone is going to give him that deal and that money.  So he may get a massive pay at age 30, or many teams may decide to back away due to his age, injury history, lack of winning, what have you.  In that respect, shorter term deals to work in the favor of the team. 

If there's one thing to take away from my position on Nylander or the Leafs free agents in general it would be that if your premise starts with "Well, no team in Free Agency will do something that stupid..." then you may want to re-evaluate.

If I were Matthews agent, I would absolutely be setting a balance of expectations that Matthews on the UFA market at 30 is going to see a big 7 year payday. I think I'm safely agreeing Nik's point when I say I struggle to imagine all 32 NHL GMs with the discipline to not hand out crazy UFA contracts at the same time.

If I really worried about managing a risk of GMs putting their wallets away, I could be thinking about pushing for a 2 year deal now rather than 3. To expand on Significantly Insignificant and Dappleganger's speculation, I'd be putting 3 scenarios to Matthews:

1) the Leafs "work with us" position probably is something like 3 x $13.5M (40.5M) into a potential 7-8 x $15-16M ($105-$128M) = $145.5-168.5M Total Value, he retires at 38.

        vs.

2) A "you have us over a barrel" position of 2 x $13.5 ($27M) into a 7 year $16M ($106M) = $133M. This takes him to 36, there may be one more contract in him, but whether it can bridge a gap of up to $30M+ is a big risk... but has less risk of a diminished second contract.

        OR

3) play out the current deal into a 7-8 year x whatever ($14M?) $98M-$112 + whatever Matthews can sign in 8-9 years time. Most guarantee now, but to retire richer than position 1, Matthews would need to sign a deal of > ~ $70M total value, which is either another $10M/ 7 year or a $8.75/ 8 year, which (on top of a big risk he can hit those contracts) has him playing till he's 40-41 years old.

I suspect the extension ends up looking like a 3 year deal which balances the risk between the team (Matthews may leave at 30) and player (he may not be able to sign a market shaping deal at 30). The question will be the exact AAV.

L K

I know this is entirely selfish on my part because a contract extension on April 30th is just as valid as one signed on August 11 but I'm kind of disappointed that an extension wasn't something that could get ironed out quickly.  That makes me at least a little concerned that Matthews is still looking for a massive number (which he is entitled to and deserves) but also isn't in the best interest of the franchise having better depth.

azzurri63

Quote from: L K on August 11, 2023, 11:39:35 AMI know this is entirely selfish on my part because a contract extension on April 30th is just as valid as one signed on August 11 but I'm kind of disappointed that an extension wasn't something that could get ironed out quickly.  That makes me at least a little concerned that Matthews is still looking for a massive number (which he is entitled to and deserves) but also isn't in the best interest of the franchise having better depth.

Entitled to I would agree with LK but deserves a significant raise I personally don't think so. He's an elite talent for sure. His numbers have faltered a bit and that could be injury relayed and his playoff performance hasn't been great so why any substantial increase in salary? I hate repeating myself but the 3 young stars made out pretty well in their last deals and now they want more. Nylander I can see bumping his salary up but Marner and Matthews have been well paid on their current deals and probably is what they should have been signing for on their next deals. We haven't been able to strengthen this team much because of that and we are heading in that direction again until JT's contract is done. Tired of it to be honest and frustrating when you see other deals being handed out across the league. Seems like we are always overpaying. I understand salaries keep going up just the nature of the beast but be nice if our stars looked at team friendly deals to bolster the lineup and maybe just maybe put a Cup winning team on the ice.

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

I share some of your frustrations azzurri but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid in the highest tier when he's won a Hart and a couple of Rockets.  That said, at some point players like him need to ask themselves how important winning a Cup is to them, and whether they can live with a total career earnings of $110 million instead of $120 if they calculate doing a team-friendly will help them get there.  The fact is that any NHL player who is in the league for 10+ years has likely earned enough money to be set for life if they manage it properly (not a given!).

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: L K on August 11, 2023, 11:39:35 AMI know this is entirely selfish on my part because a contract extension on April 30th is just as valid as one signed on August 11 but I'm kind of disappointed that an extension wasn't something that could get ironed out quickly.  That makes me at least a little concerned that Matthews is still looking for a massive number (which he is entitled to and deserves) but also isn't in the best interest of the franchise having better depth.

It's probably a little more complicated since for most players it's just like "ok lets figure out a number for 8 years roughly based off my comparables" whereas for Matthews it's trying to figure out a fair contract on possible 3, 4, 5 year or maybe (but probably unlikely) longer terms with no real comparables for that.

Even someone like MacKinnon, who in hindsight likely had a fairly simple contract negotiation (give me 8 years and a little more than McDavid currently), took until September 20th to get his extension done.

azzurri63

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2023, 12:29:59 PMI share some of your frustrations azzurri but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid in the highest tier when he's won a Hart and a couple of Rockets.  That said, at some point players like him need to ask themselves how important winning a Cup is to them, and whether they can live with a total career earnings of $110 million instead of $120 if they calculate doing a team-friendly will help them get there.  The fact is that any NHL player who is in the league for 10+ years has likely earned enough money to be set for life if they manage it properly (not a given!).

He's the 4th highest paid player in the league. He's already there. Only making roughly 1 million less than Mackinnon. Can sit and debate stats etc but if both were the same age and you had to choose one it would be a no brainer for me. For me anyway.

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: azzurri63 on August 11, 2023, 02:44:32 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2023, 12:29:59 PMI share some of your frustrations azzurri but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid in the highest tier when he's won a Hart and a couple of Rockets.  That said, at some point players like him need to ask themselves how important winning a Cup is to them, and whether they can live with a total career earnings of $110 million instead of $120 if they calculate doing a team-friendly will help them get there.  The fact is that any NHL player who is in the league for 10+ years has likely earned enough money to be set for life if they manage it properly (not a given!).

He's the 4th highest paid player in the league. He's already there. Only making roughly 1 million less than Mackinnon. Can sit and debate stats etc but if both were the same age and you had to choose one it would be a no brainer for me. For me anyway.

Not for me.  Mackinnon is great and he's outplayed Matthews in the playoffs so far but Healthy Matthews has more to give.  I'd take him.

azzurri63

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2023, 03:31:22 PM
Quote from: azzurri63 on August 11, 2023, 02:44:32 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 11, 2023, 12:29:59 PMI share some of your frustrations azzurri but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't deserve to be paid in the highest tier when he's won a Hart and a couple of Rockets.  That said, at some point players like him need to ask themselves how important winning a Cup is to them, and whether they can live with a total career earnings of $110 million instead of $120 if they calculate doing a team-friendly will help them get there.  The fact is that any NHL player who is in the league for 10+ years has likely earned enough money to be set for life if they manage it properly (not a given!).

He's the 4th highest paid player in the league. He's already there. Only making roughly 1 million less than Mackinnon. Can sit and debate stats etc but if both were the same age and you had to choose one it would be a no brainer for me. For me anyway.

Not for me.  Mackinnon is great and he's outplayed Matthews in the playoffs so far but Healthy Matthews has more to give.  I'd take him.

One thing that stands out beween the 2 and I'll take that over talent which is debatable and that's heart and Mackinnon has more of it. Can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have that heart, determination, will to do whatever to win then skill doesn't mean s**t. That's what guys like McDavid and Mackinnon have and for every shift for the most part. Matthews in my opinion doesn't especially when it matters most.

Nik

Quote from: L K on August 11, 2023, 11:39:35 AMI know this is entirely selfish on my part because a contract extension on April 30th is just as valid as one signed on August 11 but I'm kind of disappointed that an extension wasn't something that could get ironed out quickly.  That makes me at least a little concerned that Matthews is still looking for a massive number (which he is entitled to and deserves) but also isn't in the best interest of the franchise having better depth.

We don't even know that the delay is coming from Matthews' camp. There may be a contract he's fine with but the Leafs want to negotiate it down which is a valid thing for them to want to do. Or he's taking some time deciding if he wants to go short term or long term.

Either way it's probably not something to be concerned about.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Joe

Quote from: azzurri63 on August 11, 2023, 05:13:29 PMOne thing that stands out beween the 2 and I'll take that over talent which is debatable and that's heart and Mackinnon has more of it. Can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have that heart, determination, will to do whatever to win then skill doesn't mean s**t. That's what guys like McDavid and Mackinnon have and for every shift for the most part. Matthews in my opinion doesn't especially when it matters most.

Yea of course. The all important, immeasurable "heart".

azzurri63

Quote from: Joe on August 13, 2023, 11:11:03 AM
Quote from: azzurri63 on August 11, 2023, 05:13:29 PMOne thing that stands out beween the 2 and I'll take that over talent which is debatable and that's heart and Mackinnon has more of it. Can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have that heart, determination, will to do whatever to win then skill doesn't mean s**t. That's what guys like McDavid and Mackinnon have and for every shift for the most part. Matthews in my opinion doesn't especially when it matters most.

Yea of course. The all important, immeasurable "heart".

You don't think that is important?

Nik

Quote from: azzurri63 on August 13, 2023, 11:37:40 AM
Quote from: Joe on August 13, 2023, 11:11:03 AM
Quote from: azzurri63 on August 11, 2023, 05:13:29 PMOne thing that stands out beween the 2 and I'll take that over talent which is debatable and that's heart and Mackinnon has more of it. Can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have that heart, determination, will to do whatever to win then skill doesn't mean s**t. That's what guys like McDavid and Mackinnon have and for every shift for the most part. Matthews in my opinion doesn't especially when it matters most.

Yea of course. The all important, immeasurable "heart".

You don't think that is important?

I for one think it's very important that players have hearts. The heart is crucial for transporting oxygen around the blood stream which is not just important for Athletes but for all human life. Until the NHL develops players with Cyborg hearts, which I'd imagine will be 2028 at the earliest, I believe that the Maple Leafs policy should be only signing players with all of their vital organs in reasonable working order.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

azzurri63

Quote from: Nik on August 13, 2023, 02:40:14 PM
Quote from: azzurri63 on August 13, 2023, 11:37:40 AM
Quote from: Joe on August 13, 2023, 11:11:03 AM
Quote from: azzurri63 on August 11, 2023, 05:13:29 PMOne thing that stands out beween the 2 and I'll take that over talent which is debatable and that's heart and Mackinnon has more of it. Can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have that heart, determination, will to do whatever to win then skill doesn't mean s**t. That's what guys like McDavid and Mackinnon have and for every shift for the most part. Matthews in my opinion doesn't especially when it matters most.

Yea of course. The all important, immeasurable "heart".

You don't think that is important?

I for one think it's very important that players have hearts. The heart is crucial for transporting oxygen around the blood stream which is not just important for Athletes but for all human life. Until the NHL develops players with Cyborg hearts, which I'd imagine will be 2028 at the earliest, I believe that the Maple Leafs policy should be only signing players with all of their vital organs in reasonable working order.

Good one Nik had me busting my balls. Said it before some of you should apply for jobs at MLSE we'd be in much greater shape.

Bullfrog

If Kyle Wellwood had heart, he'd have been a perennial 100-pt player.

Prove me wrong.