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What are they worth?

Started by hobarth, July 03, 2023, 03:36:31 PM

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Nik

Quote from: cabber24 on July 12, 2023, 12:20:46 PMFor Nylander I will take the DeBrincat contract. Am I wrong? Is there a rule somewhere that Toronto has to pay more than anyone else? Both right-wingers with almost the exact same Points/Game career totals.

Maybe you can argue what have you done for me lately but the counter would be I did it twice (+40 goals).

As CtB points out there are some reasons that Nylander has a stronger case than DeBrincat but this still isn't addressing the larger reality.

Nylander, as a pending UFA, has the leverage in being able to walk at the end of the year. If he's looking for a big money long-term deal and has reason to think one would be out there in the free agency market(which is pretty reasonable for him to think) then all the DeBrincat signings in the world won't force him to take a deal he doesn't want. There's nothing unreasonable about wanting to be paid a market rate.

The Leafs meanwhile have no leverage. They can't say they're the only game in town the way they can when negotiating with RFA's. They can either sign him to a deal he wants to sign or they risk losing him for nothing. They also know that a huge chunk of his value if they want to trade him depends on finding a team willing to give him the kind of deal he wants so it's not like that's a terrible outcome for Nylander anyway.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Bender

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 12, 2023, 12:39:51 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on July 12, 2023, 12:20:46 PMFor Nylander I will take the DeBrincat contract. Am I wrong? Is there a rule somewhere that Toronto has to pay more than anyone else? Both right-wingers with almost the exact same Points/Game career totals.

Maybe you can argue what have you done for me lately but the counter would be I did it twice (+40 goals).

Last season
Nylander: 82 GP, 40 G, 87 Pts, 1.06 PPG
DeBrincat: 82 GP, 27 G, 66 Pts, 0.80 PPG

Last 2 seasons
Nylander: 163 GP, 73 G, 167 Pts, 1.02 PPG
DeBrincat: 164 GP, 68 G, 144 Pts, 0.88 PPG

Last 3 seasons
Nylander: 214 GP, 91 G, 209 Pts, 0.98 PPG
DeBrincat: 216 GP, 100 G, 200 Pts, 0.93 PPG

Not gonna lie I didn't expect DeBrincat to have more goals than him over the past 3 seasons but contract negotiations typically look most closely at the last 1 or 2 seasons and what the player can do going forward based off that. And in that regard Nylander has the pretty clear edge.

You do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

bustaheims

Quote from: Bender on July 12, 2023, 07:57:30 PMYou do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

Not sure he'd do that much better, as both Matthews and Tavares are goalscoring Cs rather than playmakers. He's not the net crashing type that would be the right compliment to either of them - not that Nylander is so much, either, but he does thrive in the dirty areas in front of the net. DeBrincat needs to play with a pass-first type.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Bender on July 12, 2023, 07:57:30 PMYou do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

I think, at least to a small degree, that doesn't get mentioned enough when discussing Nylander and his comparables.

cw

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 12, 2023, 10:15:02 PM
Quote from: Bender on July 12, 2023, 07:57:30 PMYou do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

I think, at least to a small degree, that doesn't get mentioned enough when discussing Nylander and his comparables.

I'm sure it came up when Bunting was haggling his deal with the Canes.

I also think it was a significant factor for Bertuzzi & Domi to sign for a year. With Matthews and Tavares and a PP that will include Klingberg (and the existing talent), they should be able to put up some good numbers and flip those numbers into a good multi year contract.

Nik

Quote from: Bender on July 12, 2023, 07:57:30 PMYou do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

I get what you're saying but I'm not sure that necessarily tracks. Or at least I'm not sure it works a ton in DeBrincat's favour. In Ottawa, sure, his production was down probably in part because of his linemates(although he seems to have gotten most of his power play time with a pretty good Ottawa group of Stutzle-Tkachuk-Batherson). But in his last two years in Chicago, at least as far as I can tell, he played mainly with Kane on his line. So we've seen him with an elite playmaker and the result it had on his numbers. As pointed out while Matthews and Tavares are certainly very good players, I don't know if they're quite the guys who are going to boost a linemates goal totals the way Kane is.

While it's probably true with any player that playing without an elite player on their line will drive their point totals down, DeBrincat's year in Ottawa might be a big flashing neon sign to teams of just how significant the effect might be. If you don't have a Kane/Matthews to pair a player with, how thrilled are you at the prospect of almost 8 million for a 30 goal, 65 point undersized winger?
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

cabber24

Sebastien Aho gets 8 years x $9.75M = $78M.

Does this put the Nylander at $10M thing to bed? Comparable stats but Aho is a center who kills penalties.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

Nik

Quote from: cabber24 on July 26, 2023, 03:36:02 PMSebastien Aho gets 8 years x $9.75M = $78M.

Does this put the Nylander at $10M thing to bed? Comparable stats but Aho is a center who kills penalties.

Every good player who signs a contract to keep them off the free agency market makes a good player who is on the free agency market more valuable, not less. That's supply and demand.

I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Bender

#53
Quote from: Nik on July 26, 2023, 03:59:31 PM
Quote from: cabber24 on July 26, 2023, 03:36:02 PMSebastien Aho gets 8 years x $9.75M = $78M.

Does this put the Nylander at $10M thing to bed? Comparable stats but Aho is a center who kills penalties.

Every good player who signs a contract to keep them off the free agency market makes a good player who is on the free agency market more valuable, not less. That's supply and demand.



But there's still a limit to what players will pay Nylander based on what the player brings to the table if he were UFA. No one is going to say give him McDavid or even Tavares money because scarcity. But even if Aho's deal doesn't set a ceiling and just increases his demand, great. Find one of the 22 eligible teams who's willing to sign him to a $10m+ extension that he desires and get them to overpay because they'll overvalue what he brings due to increased scarcity.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Nik

Quote from: Bender on July 27, 2023, 06:59:33 AMBut there's still a limit to what players will pay Nylander based on what the player brings to the table if he were UFA. No one is going to say give him McDavid or even Tavares money because scarcity.

Sure but the whole reason people have for years argued that spending money in the UFA market is inefficient is precisely because teams overspend on players relative to their quality because of that scarcity. So if, as is being argued, Nylander is "worth" 9 million or so when compared to other players and what they're making in deals signed off the UFA market I think to be realistic you have to assume the inefficiency of the market will drive that up to a somewhat meaningful degree.

If Nylander's position is that he wants a deal in line with what he'd get as a UFA the Aho deal doesn't really affect that or, if it does, probably not in the way we want.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Bender

Quote from: Nik on July 28, 2023, 08:38:12 AM
Quote from: Bender on July 27, 2023, 06:59:33 AMBut there's still a limit to what players will pay Nylander based on what the player brings to the table if he were UFA. No one is going to say give him McDavid or even Tavares money because scarcity.

Sure but the whole reason people have for years argued that spending money in the UFA market is inefficient is precisely because teams overspend on players relative to their quality because of that scarcity. So if, as is being argued, Nylander is "worth" 9 million or so when compared to other players and what they're making in deals signed off the UFA market I think to be realistic you have to assume the inefficiency of the market will drive that up to a somewhat meaningful degree.

If Nylander's position is that he wants a deal in line with what he'd get as a UFA the Aho deal doesn't really affect that or, if it does, probably not in the way we want.

Sure, but if that's the case it's possible to talk a team into a sign and trade to guarantee they have Nylander vs. an open market and they can spend the $10m+
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Nik

Quote from: Bender on July 28, 2023, 12:05:34 PMSure, but if that's the case it's possible to talk a team into a sign and trade to guarantee they have Nylander vs. an open market and they can spend the $10m+

Yes and no. It's certainly possible but it wouldn't be at all unreasonable for a team to think that Nylander at 10 million is a good investment but balk at the idea of Nylander at 10 million and a significant asset cost. As I've said elsewhere the Leafs are also kind of in a weird negotiating position there where they're effectively selling a product they don't think is worth the cost of keeping it. You're also limited in who you can negotiate with as Nylander would still be the guy who would ultimately decide if he wanted to sign with the team in question vs. going to the market.

On the general principle here, I agree. If Nylander wants 10 million per and the Leafs don't want to give that to him then they should definitely explore trade options. I'm pretty skeptical they'd get a great deal in return though. They'd be effectively in the same position Calgary was with Tkachuk last year. 
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Bender

Quote from: Nik on July 28, 2023, 01:12:03 PM
Quote from: Bender on July 28, 2023, 12:05:34 PMSure, but if that's the case it's possible to talk a team into a sign and trade to guarantee they have Nylander vs. an open market and they can spend the $10m+

Yes and no. It's certainly possible but it wouldn't be at all unreasonable for a team to think that Nylander at 10 million is a good investment but balk at the idea of Nylander at 10 million and a significant asset cost. As I've said elsewhere the Leafs are also kind of in a weird negotiating position there where they're effectively selling a product they don't think is worth the cost of keeping it. You're also limited in who you can negotiate with as Nylander would still be the guy who would ultimately decide if he wanted to sign with the team in question vs. going to the market.

On the general principle here, I agree. If Nylander wants 10 million per and the Leafs don't want to give that to him then they should definitely explore trade options. I'm pretty skeptical they'd get a great deal in return though. They'd be effectively in the same position Calgary was with Tkachuk last year.

I mean, really the only alternative if we're worried about losing a trade is to just sign the big 3 to whatever agreement we can come to and let Tavares play out his contract.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Nik

Quote from: Bender on July 28, 2023, 03:04:29 PMI mean, really the only alternative if we're worried about losing a trade is to just sign the big 3 to whatever agreement we can come to and let Tavares play out his contract.

It's not so much that I'm worried about losing a trade, I just tend to think that on balance there's probably better value in keeping Nylander even if he's 1 million or so above what he's "worth" by virtue of comparable deals rather than what you're likely to get in a trade.

I'm pretty bloodless on this one. If I thought the Leafs would improve by trading Nylander, I'd be behind it. I just think the people who are hard on the trade Nylander wagon tend to either A) underestimate how dumb teams can get in free agency and/or B) Seem to want to make some sort of point about sticking it to a player who they think is punching above his weight.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

azzurri63

I'm personally getting fed up with this core. It's all about them in my opinion and the sooner management sees that the better. Treliving should move Nylander bolster the D or maybe pickup Lindholm and send a message that we aren't bending over for you guys anymore. Most stars are signing for max length. We seem to pay and short terms. Why? We'll see what transpires but I love the moves we've made but frustrating following this core.