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2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Started by herman, May 31, 2023, 09:04:55 AM

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herman, Sir Nicholas de Mimsy-Porpington and 19 Guests are viewing this topic.

cw

Quote from: bustaheims on March 03, 2024, 08:33:08 PM
Quote from: cw on March 03, 2024, 01:24:10 PMHockey News: Report: Maple Leafs Told Nick Robertson Loan to Marlies Isn't Play Related, Shouldn't Expect Long Stay
QuoteDuring Sportsnet's Saturday Headlines, Elliotte Friedman reported that Robertson being sent to the Marlies was only to make room for the incoming forward, and wasn't a result of his play.

"The Maple Leafs informed Robertson this was purely because he doesn't need waivers and he shouldn't expect a long stay in the American Hockey League. He's still in their plans to come back this season," Friedman reported.

Not sure whether to read that as in 'more moves coming' or 'it won't be long until the deadline ...'



A little column A. A lot column B. I'm sure they're trying to make more moves, but those can't be guaranteed. But, at most, he's down there for the week.

They sent LaJoie down with Robertson.
LaJoie dressed for the Marlies. Robertson didn't.

Maybe they don't want Robertson hurt before they trade him ... ?
Hard to believe he would sit in the AHL but not play until the deadline.
Maybe he needed to cool off ...

It is very questionable whether they have a spot for him in the top 12.
Wouldn't surprise me if they were looking for a good PK forward.
Maybe he's the trade bait for that.

Lots of possibilities and he's vulnerable

Arn

I think there's a player in Robertson. I think that may count against him as it probably makes him one of the more valuable "assets" available to make a change. He doesn't really have a slot in the lineup. A 3rd line centre, for example, would have a slot. So I wonder if they're trying to find something like that.
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

cw

Quote from: Arn on March 04, 2024, 06:04:49 AMI think there's a player in Robertson. I think that may count against him as it probably makes him one of the more valuable "assets" available to make a change. He doesn't really have a slot in the lineup. A 3rd line centre, for example, would have a slot. So I wonder if they're trying to find something like that.

Leafs are the top scoring team in the league with the #1 PP (or close to that)
They don't need scoring. They need to improve defensively.
That is not Robertson's forte. He's learning but not there yet. He has some size limitations.

NHL teams near the bottom of goals/game like Chicago, SJ, Washington, Anaheim, etc
They could use a top six winger who can score goals.
Give Robertson 15-16 mins/game and within that, some decent PP ice time. Then you've probably got a 20+ goal scorer who needs to grow his 2 way game.
He could help one of those teams.
Paid near NHL minimum, his RFA negotiating position isn't great so he'd be a great bang for their buck.
On that basis, he's got value.
There's probably someone of similar age on the prospective team's roster who can PK/check or they can get a prospect rather than a pick to help Matthews et al sooner.

OR, and I suspect much more likely, he's depth if one of the scoring wingers gets hurt. One of them probably will if they go any distance in the playoffs. His waiver exempt status effectively allows them to have a 24 man roster. When they're carrying 3 goalies, that is even more important.

bustaheims

Quote from: cw on March 03, 2024, 09:54:55 PMThey sent LaJoie down with Robertson.
LaJoie dressed for the Marlies. Robertson didn't.

Maybe they don't want Robertson hurt before they trade him ... ?
Hard to believe he would sit in the AHL but not play until the deadline.
Maybe he needed to cool off ...

It is very questionable whether they have a spot for him in the top 12.
Wouldn't surprise me if they were looking for a good PK forward.
Maybe he's the trade bait for that.

Lots of possibilities and he's vulnerable

Agreed. For a younger guy with term/team control, moving him wouldn't necessarily be a bad move. I have to imagine he's come up in trade talks and probably should be available for the right deal. When he's not producing offensively, he's pretty invisible most nights. The potential is still there, but he's still lacking in consistency. And, as you mention, his two-way game is needs work. If there's an equivalent, more defensively focused forward out there, it could make sense to move him.

Otherwise, maybe a short stint away from the team to work on the mental side of his game and his approach might also be beneficial. Even if he doesn't get into games for the Marlies, if he gets called up Friday/Saturday and gets back into the lineup, the not playing is probably not a huge issue, and it's only a week or so that he'll have been sitting. If it goes much longer than that, it starts to become a concern.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Arn

Quote from: cw on March 04, 2024, 08:03:23 AM
Quote from: Arn on March 04, 2024, 06:04:49 AMI think there's a player in Robertson. I think that may count against him as it probably makes him one of the more valuable "assets" available to make a change. He doesn't really have a slot in the lineup. A 3rd line centre, for example, would have a slot. So I wonder if they're trying to find something like that.

Leafs are the top scoring team in the league with the #1 PP (or close to that)
They don't need scoring. They need to improve defensively.
That is not Robertson's forte. He's learning but not there yet. He has some size limitations.

NHL teams near the bottom of goals/game like Chicago, SJ, Washington, Anaheim, etc
They could use a top six winger who can score goals.
Give Robertson 15-16 mins/game and within that, some decent PP ice time. Then you've probably got a 20+ goal scorer who needs to grow his 2 way game.
He could help one of those teams.
Paid near NHL minimum, his RFA negotiating position isn't great so he'd be a great bang for their buck.
On that basis, he's got value.
There's probably someone of similar age on the prospective team's roster who can PK/check or they can get a prospect rather than a pick to help Matthews et al sooner.

OR, and I suspect much more likely, he's depth if one of the scoring wingers gets hurt. One of them probably will if they go any distance in the playoffs. His waiver exempt status effectively allows them to have a 24 man roster. When they're carrying 3 goalies, that is even more important.

Yeah, I don't disagree with, or have any problems with, that bolded line at all.

But if you could turn Robertson into a Domi upgrade at 2/3C, where you can maybe better utilise Tavares in his slightly reduced role where he gets the more offensive role against weaker opponents there could be something in that.
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Arn on March 04, 2024, 09:44:39 AMBut if you could turn Robertson into a Domi upgrade at 2/3C, where you can maybe better utilise Tavares in his slightly reduced role where he gets the more offensive role against weaker opponents there could be something in that.

Different guys running both teams now but it seems like there used to be a decent amount of smoke around a potential Robertson for Scott Laughton trade. I suspect in the past the Leafs weren't adding enough to their side for Philly to pull the trigger. Maybe it's something that gets looked at again with Laughton having somewhat of a down year.


RedLeaf

At the rate they seem to be losing defencemen this season, I really hope they find another right handed D man that can be a difference maker on the back end.
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.." --Isaac Asimov.

Dappleganger

#1358
Quote from: RedLeaf on March 04, 2024, 10:35:14 AMAt the rate they seem to be losing defencemen this season, I really hope they find another right handed D man that can be a difference maker on the back end.

I would trade the 2024 1st round pick + prospect to Arizona for Sean Durzi.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Dappleganger on March 04, 2024, 12:31:13 PM
Quote from: RedLeaf on March 04, 2024, 10:35:14 AMAt the rate they seem to be losing defencemen this season, I really hope they find another right handed D man that can be a difference maker on the back end.

I would trade the 2024 1st round pick + prospect to Arizona for Sean Durzi.

That's a hell of a price for a guy who's defensive play is questionable at best.

Dappleganger

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on March 04, 2024, 12:48:04 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on March 04, 2024, 12:31:13 PM
Quote from: RedLeaf on March 04, 2024, 10:35:14 AMAt the rate they seem to be losing defencemen this season, I really hope they find another right handed D man that can be a difference maker on the back end.

I would trade the 2024 1st round pick + prospect to Arizona for Sean Durzi.

That's a hell of a price for a guy who's defensive play is questionable at best.

He's doing SO much better than every other D on a struggling Arizona team. Could be unlocked on a team like Toronto. I'm bullish.

Signed for another year at $1.7m.


CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Dappleganger on March 04, 2024, 12:50:49 PMHe's doing SO much better than every other D on a struggling Arizona team. Could be unlocked on a team like Toronto. I'm bullish.

Signed for another year at $1.7m.

His possession numbers are good but his xGA is high and that's with pretty comfy zone starts. His defensive metrics in LA weren't very good either (part of why they traded him for just a 2nd rounder) and going back to his junior career too his defensive game wasn't anything to write home about it. I just don't think he's going to suddenly turn that part of his game around when he turns 26 years old in October.

But even if there is a belief he could improve defensively I just don't think he's the guy to target. The Leafs likely only have the assets available in terms of picks, prospects, and cap space for one big swing trade attempt in the next year probably. So if they do take that swing on a defenceman it needs to be for a guy who can fill the biggest need, which is someone who can handle those tough defensive assignments and PK minutes. That just isn't or ever will be Durzi.

Arn

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on March 04, 2024, 10:00:02 AM
Quote from: Arn on March 04, 2024, 09:44:39 AMBut if you could turn Robertson into a Domi upgrade at 2/3C, where you can maybe better utilise Tavares in his slightly reduced role where he gets the more offensive role against weaker opponents there could be something in that.

Different guys running both teams now but it seems like there used to be a decent amount of smoke around a potential Robertson for Scott Laughton trade. I suspect in the past the Leafs weren't adding enough to their side for Philly to pull the trigger. Maybe it's something that gets looked at again with Laughton having somewhat of a down year.

Something like that is what I'm thinking. So you'd end up with something like a 1st line, 2a/2b lines and a 4th line

Knies Matthews Marner
Bertuzzi Laughton/Tavares Nylander
McMann Tavares/Laughton Jarnkrok
Domi Kampf Holmberg/Reaves



I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Dappleganger

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on March 04, 2024, 01:06:35 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on March 04, 2024, 12:50:49 PMHe's doing SO much better than every other D on a struggling Arizona team. Could be unlocked on a team like Toronto. I'm bullish.

Signed for another year at $1.7m.

His possession numbers are good but his xGA is high and that's with pretty comfy zone starts. His defensive metrics in LA weren't very good either (part of why they traded him for just a 2nd rounder) and going back to his junior career too his defensive game wasn't anything to write home about it. I just don't think he's going to suddenly turn that part of his game around when he turns 26 years old in October.

But even if there is a belief he could improve defensively I just don't think he's the guy to target. The Leafs likely only have the assets available in terms of picks, prospects, and cap space for one big swing trade attempt in the next year probably. So if they do take that swing on a defenceman it needs to be for a guy who can fill the biggest need, which is someone who can handle those tough defensive assignments and PK minutes. That just isn't or ever will be Durzi.

Here's where Durzi's xGA/60 would stack up against the current Leafs d-core. I don't think it's that bad:



CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Dappleganger on March 04, 2024, 04:26:23 PMHere's where Durzi's xGA/60 would stack up against the current Leafs d-core. I don't think it's that bad:

So the numbers you shown there are for "all situations" play, which generally isn't a great way of looking at these stats especially when you're comparing other defencemen. Durzi gets a huge boost there compared to the other Leafs because he doesn't kill penalties as often (which will naturally hurt your xGA/60) and plays on the powerplay more than anyone other than Rielly (which of course boosts your xGA/60). I could tell you got your information from Moneypuck.com and I don't really understand why they default their stats to "all situations" instead of "5-on-5" which is generally speaking the default for looking at anything advanced stats-y for hockey.

Here's how they sort out using 5-on-5 xGA/60 using Naturalstattrick's data, just since I'm generally a little more comfortable with that site:

Benoit 2.24
Lagesson 2.25
Timmins 2.37
Liljegren 2.41
McCabe 2.5
Durzi 2.66
Giordano 2.67
Brodie 2.83
Rielly 3.04
Klingberg 3.49

So Durzi falls roughly middle of the pact here, but it's worth noting that most of the defence has been getting better as the season has gone on. Since January 1 Giordano, McCabe, and Lily have seen their xGA/60 at much better rates (1.95, 2.10, 2.32 respectively). So it's really just Rielly and Brodie that he's doing better than, and I think we can all agree that those two (especially together) have struggled defensively this season.