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2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Started by herman, May 31, 2023, 09:04:55 AM

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A Weekend at Bernier's

Pardon me if this has already been posted / discussed....

Counting one's chickens before their hatched and all that, the next year's salary cap is expected to be approximately $88m. 

COINCIDENCE?????

Putting aside planetary alignment, I would think that this should create enough wiggle-room to get Nylander signed.  Plenty of other gaps will still exist, but I'm hopeful that some clarity of future expectation can put this saga to bed soon.

CarltonTheBear

#766
Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on December 05, 2023, 10:11:51 AMPardon me if this has already been posted / discussed....

Counting one's chickens before their hatched and all that, the next year's salary cap is expected to be approximately $88m. 

COINCIDENCE?????

Putting aside planetary alignment, I would think that this should create enough wiggle-room to get Nylander signed.  Plenty of other gaps will still exist, but I'm hopeful that some clarity of future expectation can put this saga to bed soon.

Just for fun, and because it feels like the Leafs have 7 weeks between games right now, here's a quick outlook on next years roster with a $87.7mil cap ceiling and Nylander signed at say an even $10mil:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
_____-_____-Jarnkrok
_____-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-_____
McCabe-_____
_____-Timmins

Woll
_____

That would leave $24.4mil remaining to fill at least 8 blank roster spots. That goes to $25.5mil to fill 9 blank roster spots if Reaves gets waived but replacing him with a $1mil guy doesn't really change the numbers so I'll just leave him for projection purposes.

$24.4mil for 8 roster spots means an average of about $3mil per player. Let's just hypothetically fill in some spots with expected cap hits: $775k for 4LW like Gregor or someone else, $3mil for a generic 3C (Domi or otherwise), $2.25mil for Liljegren, $1.75mil for Robertson. These figures, especially the last two, are just guesses and there's lots of time for those figures to go up or down.

That leaves the roster looking like:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-$3mil3C-Jarnkrok
4LWGuy-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-_____
McCabe-Liljegren
_____-Timmins

Woll
_____

Now we're looking at about $16.6mil to fill 4 roster spots. That's an average of just over $4mil of course for 1) a top-6 left winger, 2) two defencemen, at least one of which is top-4 quality but hey both would be nice, and 3) a goalie to properly platoon with Woll.

Hypothetically if the Leafs traded for Tanev and then re-signed him I think you could definitely get both him and Brodie re-signed for under $8mil. Probably something more like $7mil really. And as long as Woll continues to perform at least as well as he has been you likely won't see the Leafs spending $4mil on someone to platoon with him, it'll probably be a search for another Samsonov in 2022 situation so let's say $2mil on him instead. That leaves the roster looking like:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-$3mil3C-Janrkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Tanev
Brodie-Liljegren
McCabe-Timmins

Woll
$2mil2G

That still leaves about $7.6mil in cap space to spend on a 2LW and potentially a 13th forward and/or 7th defenceman. Which is a lot of walking around money.

You could debate whether or not this is a "Cup contention" line-up or how the specific money gets allocated, but this is more about showing how the Leafs can absolutely afford to re-sign Nylander even at $10mil next season without needing to have half a dozen league minimum guys filling out the roster.

herman

#27

herman

#27


CarltonTheBear

A healthy John Klingberg, even with some warts, could have been a valuable member of the team. Props to him I guess for trying to play through his hip issue but it was damn obvious he shouldn't have been.

Bender

Robidas Island sounds like a very warm and welcoming place!
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

cw

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on December 06, 2023, 11:42:19 AM....

Hypothetically if the Leafs traded for Tanev and then re-signed him I think you could definitely get both him and Brodie re-signed for under $8mil. Probably something more like $7mil really. And as long as Woll continues to perform at least as well as he has been you likely won't see the Leafs spending $4mil on someone to platoon with him, it'll probably be a search for another Samsonov in 2022 situation so let's say $2mil on him instead. That leaves the roster looking like:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-$3mil3C-Janrkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Tanev
Brodie-Liljegren
McCabe-Timmins

Woll
$2mil2G

That still leaves about $7.6mil in cap space to spend on a 2LW and potentially a 13th forward and/or 7th defenceman. Which is a lot of walking around money.

You could debate whether or not this is a "Cup contention" line-up or how the specific money gets allocated, but this is more about showing how the Leafs can absolutely afford to re-sign Nylander even at $10mil next season without needing to have half a dozen league minimum guys filling out the roster.

Good work. Thanks

cw

Quote from: Bender on December 06, 2023, 01:41:05 PMRobidas Island sounds like a very warm and welcoming place!

Tough that his hip wore out but good news for the team that he elected surgery so they could add a desperately needed dman.

cabber24

#774
Quote from: cw on December 06, 2023, 02:22:55 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on December 06, 2023, 11:42:19 AM....

Hypothetically if the Leafs traded for Tanev and then re-signed him I think you could definitely get both him and Brodie re-signed for under $8mil. Probably something more like $7mil really. And as long as Woll continues to perform at least as well as he has been you likely won't see the Leafs spending $4mil on someone to platoon with him, it'll probably be a search for another Samsonov in 2022 situation so let's say $2mil on him instead. That leaves the roster looking like:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-$3mil3C-Janrkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Tanev
Brodie-Liljegren
McCabe-Timmins

Woll
$2mil2G

That still leaves about $7.6mil in cap space to spend on a 2LW and potentially a 13th forward and/or 7th defenceman. Which is a lot of walking around money.

You could debate whether or not this is a "Cup contention" line-up or how the specific money gets allocated, but this is more about showing how the Leafs can absolutely afford to re-sign Nylander even at $10mil next season without needing to have half a dozen league minimum guys filling out the roster.

Good work. Thanks

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on December 06, 2023, 11:42:19 AM
Quote from: A Weekend at Bernier's on December 05, 2023, 10:11:51 AMPardon me if this has already been posted / discussed....

Counting one's chickens before their hatched and all that, the next year's salary cap is expected to be approximately $88m. 

COINCIDENCE?????

Putting aside planetary alignment, I would think that this should create enough wiggle-room to get Nylander signed.  Plenty of other gaps will still exist, but I'm hopeful that some clarity of future expectation can put this saga to bed soon.

Just for fun, and because it feels like the Leafs have 7 weeks between games right now, here's a quick outlook on next years roster with a $87.7mil cap ceiling and Nylander signed at say an even $10mil:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
_____-_____-Jarnkrok
_____-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-_____
McCabe-_____
_____-Timmins

Woll
_____

That would leave $24.4mil remaining to fill at least 8 blank roster spots. That goes to $25.5mil to fill 9 blank roster spots if Reaves gets waived but replacing him with a $1mil guy doesn't really change the numbers so I'll just leave him for projection purposes.

$24.4mil for 8 roster spots means an average of about $3mil per player. Let's just hypothetically fill in some spots with expected cap hits: $775k for 4LW like Gregor or someone else, $3mil for a generic 3C (Domi or otherwise), $2.25mil for Liljegren, $1.75mil for Robertson. These figures, especially the last two, are just guesses and there's lots of time for those figures to go up or down.

That leaves the roster looking like:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-$3mil3C-Jarnkrok
4LWGuy-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-_____
McCabe-Liljegren
_____-Timmins

Woll
_____

Now we're looking at about $16.6mil to fill 4 roster spots. That's an average of just over $4mil of course for 1) a top-6 left winger, 2) two defencemen, at least one of which is top-4 quality but hey both would be nice, and 3) a goalie to properly platoon with Woll.

Hypothetically if the Leafs traded for Tanev and then re-signed him I think you could definitely get both him and Brodie re-signed for under $8mil. Probably something more like $7mil really. And as long as Woll continues to perform at least as well as he has been you likely won't see the Leafs spending $4mil on someone to platoon with him, it'll probably be a search for another Samsonov in 2022 situation so let's say $2mil on him instead. That leaves the roster looking like:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
_____-Tavares-Nylander
Robertson-$3mil3C-Janrkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Tanev
Brodie-Liljegren
McCabe-Timmins

Woll
$2mil2G

That still leaves about $7.6mil in cap space to spend on a 2LW and potentially a 13th forward and/or 7th defenceman. Which is a lot of walking around money.

You could debate whether or not this is a "Cup contention" line-up or how the specific money gets allocated, but this is more about showing how the Leafs can absolutely afford to re-sign Nylander even at $10mil next season without needing to have half a dozen league minimum guys filling out the roster.

I appreciate this presentation.

I still dislike that D! How about a Myers, Martinez, or Hanifin? It's time to spend on the backend. We need some swagger on the blue line.

Anyone else listen to Kyper talking about alpha males on teams and who has them and who doesn't? It was interesting and no one could name a alpha on Toronto. Their definition was very loose but basically, a star player who is intimidating on and off the ice.
Upon the wicked He will rain Jerseys; blue and white and burning waffles will be the portion of their cup.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: cabber24 on December 06, 2023, 05:00:59 PMI still dislike that D! How about a Myers, Martinez, or Hanifin? It's time to spend on the backend. We need some swagger on the blue line.

I mean I would very likely take Tanev over either Martinez or Myers (especially Myers) so there's some swagger there but if you'd really like either of them could be swapped for one or both of Tanev/Brodie. Even Hanifin would technically be possible. Again I essentially have $7.5mil allocated for a winger and then roughly $3.5mil allocated for two defencemen. If you wanted Hanifin just give him the $7.5mil and target a $3.5mil winger instead. A hit to our forwards for sure but obviously improves our defence a lot more, which yes could be the smarter play. Point is there's money to spend this offseason even after Nylander signs.

herman

#776
https://twitter.com/leafsnews/status/1732551832256356794
Our favourite topic!

I think the salary cap clarity will help as long as Toronto isn't lowballing in 8M still
#27

Bullfrog

I could see a low-ball offer of $8M if there was some concern about whether he can sustain this output (e.g. Nazem Kadri). But this is the third straight season of complete beast mode.

Bender

"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: Bender on December 07, 2023, 12:13:36 AM$10 or $10.5 and be done with it.

Ten-five is about $1M north of what MLHS is suggesting.

With the cap going up I can see offering $10M just so he can say he's out of single digits.