2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[herman]

Ya, that doesn't make sense. His previous 5-year contract was smart, but at 26 years old, he's taking an 8 year contract.

If he was smart back then, I don't see why he would be dumb now. 8 years now doesn't make sense, especially with the cap set to finally rise again and his desire for one more big UFA payout after this one.

Which one nets him more?

5 x 11.634M AAV from 21-26
4 x 13.4M AAV from 26-30
7 x 16M AAV from 30-37 (with a backdive)
+ however many cheapo 1-years picking his contender

vs

5 x 11.634M AAV from 21-26
8 x 15M AAV from 26-34
3 x 8M AAV from 34-37
+ however many cheapo 1-years picking his contender

There's a 20+M drop off in scenario 2 with my admittedly made-up, but reasonable #s. No one will pay him a hefty amount after he signs an 8 year this coming extension, especially not with his injury history.

[bustaheims]

Ya, that doesn't make sense. His previous 5-year contract was smart, but at 26 years old, he's taking an 8 year contract.

If he was smart back then, I don't see why he would be dumb now. 8 years now doesn't make sense, especially with the cap set to finally rise again and his desire for one more big UFA payout after this one.

Which one nets him more?

5 x 11.634M AAV from 21-26
4 x 13.4M AAV from 26-30
7 x 16M AAV from 30-37 (with a backdive)
+ however many cheapo 1-years picking his contender

vs

5 x 11.634M AAV from 21-26
8 x 15M AAV from 26-34
3 x 8M AAV from 34-37
+ however many cheapo 1-years picking his contender

There's a 20+M drop off in scenario 2 with my admittedly made-up, but reasonable #s. No one will pay him a hefty amount after he signs an 8 year this coming extension, especially not with his injury history.

I think you're undervaluing how much security is valued by players - especially when they have an injury history like Auston's.

With an 8 year deal, he's guaranteed a level of income. With a shorter term, a major injury could crater his future earning potential.

[Nik]

If he was smart back then, I don't see why he would be dumb now. 8 years now doesn't make sense, especially with the cap set to finally rise again and his desire for one more big UFA payout after this one.

Which one nets him more?

5 x 11.634M AAV from 21-26
4 x 13.4M AAV from 26-30
7 x 16M AAV from 30-37 (with a backdive)
+ however many cheapo 1-years picking his contender

vs

5 x 11.634M AAV from 21-26
8 x 15M AAV from 26-34
3 x 8M AAV from 34-37
+ however many cheapo 1-years picking his contender

There's a 20+M drop off in scenario 2 with my admittedly made-up, but reasonable #s. No one will pay him a hefty amount after he signs an 8 year this coming extension, especially not with his injury history.

I mean, for starters, 30-37 is an 8 year deal, not a 7 year deal but more to the point there seems to be a couple issues with how you're figuring things. One, Matthews is a year older than you have him. He's turning 26 before this season begins so his new contract will cover the years 27+ which admittedly on its own doesn't seem like a huge deal but it does factor into this idea that a 31 year old Matthews is going to be signed to a huge money top of market deal for 7-8 years. I love me some Auston Matthews but I have absolutely no idea if he's going to be that sort of player in 4-5 years and I think any agent telling him it's a sure thing that he will be is talking out of his butt. Like Busta says, this is a guy who sure seems to have nagging wrist/back issues so the idea that he's going to get that third deal you're projecting is a pretty big shot in the dark.

I 100% could buy that Matthews might still opt for a shorter deal to maximize his flexibility but if he's doing it because he thinks a gigantic long term deal that will cover the entirety of his 30's is a sure thing, that's the being dumb here.

[herman]

haha, I was pretty sure I'd get the ages wrong, so I made sure it was at least going to be a systematic error.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see him taking a shorter deal. He has big time don't-care-what-everyone-else does energy, and will want to be the top dollar guy; his group has already put it to the media that he's looking for 2 big tickets in his remaining playing career. McDavid is up shortly after Matthews signs this extension.

Nylander and Marner I can see signing 8 though.

[Nik]

What if Matthews re-ups on a two-year deal below market value?

Why would he do that?

Ya, that doesn't make sense. His previous 5-year contract was smart, but at 26 years old, he's taking an 8 year contract.

I think it makes some sense in as much as if he's not 100% sold on coming back to the Leafs he could sign a below-market 2 year deal to really give the current core group one last go-round with a bit more cap flexibility and then, at 29, get to negotiate a big 3rd deal while still on the right side of 30 and potentially after the cap has started to go back up.

Hockey players, as a rule, tend to value security more than that but I could understand some guys being a bit reluctant to sign long term deals before the cap jumps.

[Bullfrog]

There's a 20+M drop off in scenario 2 with my admittedly made-up, but reasonable #s. No one will pay him a hefty amount after he signs an 8 year this coming extension, especially not with his injury history.

Yet in your scenario you have someone paying him $16M for three years that would come after his 8-year contract. So which is it?

8 years x $14M USD. At these kinds of dollars, security starts to become a bigger factor.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

Changing the subject, MLHS has the first of two should-they-stay-or-go UFA analyses up:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/06/17/toronto-maple-leafs-ufas-holl-schenn-acciari-aston-reese-gusafsson/

ZAR = go, but OK if stays
Acciari = stay
Holl = needs a fresh start.  Representative comments: "Holl is a fascinating player in some sense, giving you good production at a very affordable price when he's at his best. But when he's off his game, Holl can look like a donkey on skates, making mind-numbing decisions that make you want to put a hatchet through the television." "Holl is a complementary defenseman who can thrive next to high-end players. But ask him to carry a pair next to a struggling partner and his game completely falls apart. That's what happened in the playoffs this spring when Giordano's game aged years in the span of just a few weeks, causing Holl to enter a free fall. His Game 5 showing against Tampa is one of the single worst games I've seen from an individual Leafs defenseman in the playoffs." [Hidden in here is the sad truth about Gio....]
Gustafsson: let him go
Schenn: stay, but if not OK too

[herman]

There's a 20+M drop off in scenario 2 with my admittedly made-up, but reasonable #s. No one will pay him a hefty amount after he signs an 8 year this coming extension, especially not with his injury history.

Yet in your scenario you have someone paying him $16M for three years that would come after his 8-year contract. So which is it?

8 years x $14M USD. At these kinds of dollars, security starts to become a bigger factor.

The premise is that 8 years from now, a 16M cap hit is only a moderate amount and they'd still get some good mileage and gate revenue out of it. 16M is only the cap hit at that point too, real dollars in the back half of these contracts are a little easier to move.

[herman]

Changing the subject, MLHS has the first of two should-they-stay-or-go UFA analyses up:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/06/17/toronto-maple-leafs-ufas-holl-schenn-acciari-aston-reese-gusafsson/

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/06/19/toronto-maple-leafs-ufas-oreilly-bunting-kampf-and-kerfoot/
Follow up article (i.e. the gooder ones)

[CarltonTheBear]

[Hidden in here is the sad truth about Gio....]

Keefe not scratching Giordano for a single playoff game this year has to be up there on his list of all-time blunders. Dude was one of the teams worst players in both series'. Holl took all of the heat for that pairs struggles against Tampa but he was arguably just as bad if not worse. It's even more crazy considering how under-utilized Gustafsson was.

I actually wondered if a new GM might have a little more of a ruthless attitude toward Giordano in his final year, but considering Treliving has a relationship with him too that likely won't be the case. I feel like we say this ever year with our vets and it doesn't end up happening because players hate to sit, but the Leafs seriously need to do some hardcore load management with Gio this season.

[L K]

[Hidden in here is the sad truth about Gio....]

Keefe not scratching Giordano for a single playoff game this year has to be up there on his list of all-time blunders. Dude was one of the teams worst players in both series'. Holl took all of the heat for that pairs struggles against Tampa but he was arguably just as bad if not worse. It's even more crazy considering how under-utilized Gustafsson was.

I actually wondered if a new GM might have a little more of a ruthless attitude toward Giordano in his final year, but considering Treliving has a relationship with him too that likely won't be the case. I feel like we say this ever year with our vets and it doesn't end up happening because players hate to sit, but the Leafs seriously need to do some hardcore load management with Gio this season.

It's too bad because for most of the regular season he was really good.  It was pretty clear that his body couldn't keep up with the long season + playoffs and Keefe not giving him more rest was a huge mistake.  He didn't need to sit for weeks at a time, they just needed to not have him playing every back to back.

[CarltonTheBear]

It's too bad because for most of the regular season he was really good.  It was pretty clear that his body couldn't keep up with the long season + playoffs and Keefe not giving him more rest was a huge mistake.  He didn't need to sit for weeks at a time, they just needed to not have him playing every back to back.

Yeah I mean it's weird heading into playoffs Brodie, McCabe, Holl, and Giordano were all actually playing really well while the Rielly-Schenn pair looked like the bigger question mark. We saw the reverse of that in the playoffs.

[archie holdsworth]

I can't say I'm happy with Keefe's apparent return, but I will give Treliving the benefit of the doubt, because who is out there now that would be an obvious upgrade? Treliving may as well keep the fire the coach card in his pocket for now.

Last summer was the time to hire a new coach.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

Changing the subject, MLHS has the first of two should-they-stay-or-go UFA analyses up:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/06/17/toronto-maple-leafs-ufas-holl-schenn-acciari-aston-reese-gusafsson/

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/06/19/toronto-maple-leafs-ufas-oreilly-bunting-kampf-and-kerfoot/
Follow up article (i.e. the gooder ones)

The long and short of it: of the 9 UFAs MLHS analyzed, only one, Acciari, was a want-him-bad.  The rest were no's, mehs, or (ROR's case), yesses if a bargain signing.  In other words, MHLS is plumping for a major roster turnover.  (They would have begun with Keefe.)

[cabber24]

I can't say I'm happy with Keefe's apparent return, but I will give Treliving the benefit of the doubt, because who is out there now that would be an obvious upgrade? Treliving may as well keep the fire the coach card in his pocket for now.

Last summer was the time to hire a new coach.

I interpret it as self-protection as well. He can now essentially fire 2 coaches before people start looking at him.
Anyway, I am still on team run-it-back. I am skeptical they can get better trading any of the core. I would love to be surprised but I doubt I will be. Holl gone will help. Don't dislike the guy but he was definitely over casted. Taking that option away from Keefe makes a Keefe coached team better.