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2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Started by herman, May 31, 2023, 09:04:55 AM

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Dappleganger

#210
Leafs needed a top six forward, bottom 6 forward (who can play) and a defenseman who isn't the worst defenseman in the league (defensively) and I'd say they struck out on 3 accounts.

Pretty dismal showing. No positives to be gleaned so far with Treliving, just puzzling moves. It can get better, let's hope so.

Klingberg could work out but Ryan Reaves til 39 years of age? How was that possible?

Edit: According to Treliving, Reaves was brought in to be "vibes coordinator". Good grief.
 

cw

Quote from: Bender on July 02, 2023, 08:35:44 AM
Quote from: cw on July 01, 2023, 10:39:27 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 01, 2023, 07:18:23 PM
Quote from: RedLeaf on July 01, 2023, 06:38:25 PMUpdate:

Out (so far)
O'Reilly
Bunting
Schenn
Acciari
Holl
Gustafsson
Kerfoot

In (so far)
Reaves
Klingberg

So not a good day for Treliving

Other than O'Reilly, Acciari, and Schenn, I don't think too many people are upset about the guys leaving - and, considering the contracts they got, I'm not sure we should be so upset about any of them. Honestly, there's only a handful of deals signed today I can look at and say "I wish the Leafs got that deal." Most of the contracts signed today are ones I'm happy the Leafs avoided.

While I wouldn't qualify today as a good day, it's nowhere as bad as some are making it out to be.

Definitely not a good day.

It was not a deep UFA group so over bidding was bound to be worse. Laws of supply & demand.

Maybe to that end, he overpaid to hang on to Kampf when it started to look like O'Reilly et al were jumping ship.

Treliving acknowledges we need bottom six scoring. Kerfoot, O'Reilly, maybe Bunting or Acciari are arguably in that group - they're gone and not replaced.

Like him or not, Holl drew the most PK minutes on D per his retained coach. Gone, not replaced.

Holl provided some size around the crease and Schenn certainly helped physically on the back end. Gone, not replaced.

Now, I acknowledge that we're only on day one of free agency. More can and will happen. But this is a concern for example:

If Domi or Bertuzzi are currently weighing offers from different teams ... "Hey, what is with all these guys bailing on the Leafs? What will we be getting ourselves into? Are Matthews & Nylander behind them? In the next 12 months nearly all the top talent on the Leafs are UFAs ...."

The answers to date are Reaves and Klingberg who are not getting rave press reviews:
https://theathletic.com/4659175/2023/07/01/ryan-reaves-brad-treliving-maple-leafs/

We're in the peak contending years for this core group. Next spring might be their best shot. They are not off to a good start. From that, after day one of free agency, it is now going to be a greater challenge to produce a better roster than 2022-23.

I do not think it is unfair to observe that. I do not see anyone offering them a mulligan.

I don't think it's all players bailing from the Leafs. ROR and Acciari are probably the only ones who decided to leave. The ROR comments give me cause for concern but to think that's Trelivings fault is ignoring who built this team.

The rest of them are players I wouldn't have kept, especially at the contracts they received. Bunting, Holl, Kerfoot were almost guaranteed not to come back and part of that is literally the cap. There was no world in which we could've brought back this full roster even if we wanted to, which I definitely don't. And there's 0 point in comparing July 1 roster and a post deadline roster.

I think there is merit to comparing the rosters because the exercise is to compress as much NHL talent on to the the roster each season to compete - go as deep as they can in the playoffs. We see teams like TBay erode as their talent earns larger contracts from their performance with the team than the growth of the cap causing them to dump talent they don't want to. The ostrich routine of keeping your head in that sand won't work. Teams run out of assets to mortgage to remain competitive. We're seeing it this year with our Leafs. 4th best win% team is being pulled apart by contract demands - just like Tampa and many others have been.

They're in a precarious place now. Any one of Matthews, Marner and/or Nylander could say "I'm not going to hang around - you guys are largely tapped out with the prospect pipeline down to a trickle and cap space so tight you couldn't re-sign a bunch of the club. Gotta head for greener pastures for a shot at winning"

That may be why they didn't sign much of note yesterday. Maybe why so many bailed.
I was hoping for another couple of seasons where they could take a shot.
I'm starting to wonder if that is possible now.
They had a bunch of dough and no one good to spend it on.

Who cares about years three and four of a deal right now? The cap window for a competitive roster is closing. I would have paid O'Reilly's ransom because he gives you a 3rd scoring line, leadership and checking. I would have paid most of Schenn's ransom hoping for a small home town discount because he's the best partner Rielly has had, he provides some enforcement, leadership and is a physical stay-at-home dman on the right side- something they need. Both guys proved they fit with this group. They have a year or two left in them making those around them better.

CarltonTheBear

My hopes for day 2, and beyond:

1) 2nd line winger type. There's still a few of those available. Bertuzzi and Domi top the list, with Bertuzzi likely getting the bigger and longer contract. I'd be ok with Domi on a Bunting-like deal (3x$4.5mil). Maybe even add another year to get the cap hit down a little, 2 years to get it down a lottle. Other options are Tatar, Tarasenko, Kane, Yamamoto. All of those guys certainly come with some warts (lack of playoff success, fit, injury concerns, low ceiling).

3) 3rd line centre. Domi has some history playing centre but I don't think he's good enough to move Tavares out of his spot which I know a lot of people did want to see. That doesn't seem likely with the options available so instead just focusing on a 3C to keep Kampf on the 4th line. Evan Rodrigues is probably the top candidate at this point. Pius Suter could be a solid fit as well. He's very much a plan-D option, but if healthy Toews at 3C wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

3) Defence trade? I don't see another signing for a legit NHL defender at this point. If we're changing up the D it will likely come via trade. Maybe Brodie gets moved out if there's a top-4 option Treliving can pick up with a long-term future with the Leafs. Or maybe Timmins gets moved out for a bottom pair guy with more of a defensive/physical skill set.

With a Murray buyout and a Samsonov re-signing ($3.5mil) there's about $7.4mil to make those deals happen. Hypothetically that could fit Domi at $4.5mil and Rodrigues at $2.9mil. Bertuzzi would come in higher than Domi but I'd imagine Suter would come in lower than Rodrigues to make that combo fit too. Who knows what Toews is looking for.


princedpw

The stars aligned perfectly when Matthews was drafted - the luckiest moment of my lifetime Leafs-wise and I was born in the early 70s!  Next season, the leafs rookies broke records. 7 years later, for whatever reason, there's one playoff win to their names and it could be over. 

At this point, I'd say the odds of the leafs winning a cup, or maybe even making it to the finals, in my lifetime look pretty weak.

bustaheims

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2023, 10:11:02 AMScratch Rodrigues off the list:
https://twitter.com/thefourthperiod/status/1675522160113209344

That's a good deal. Maybe a year longer than I would have gone for, but cap it about right.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Peter D.

I'm actually okay with how things have panned out so far.  The Reeves signing I don't care for, but Klingberg is fine on a one-year deal.

Outside of Bunting, there's no one who I'm sad to see go.  O'Reilly would have been fine to re-sign, but not at that term.  Schenn, Holl, Kerfoot, Acciari...meh.  Mostly glad they're not coming back.

Would it have been nice to have signed Duchene to that value deal?  Absolutely.  But we don't know if the Leafs were even a plan for him.

I'll reserve judgement of how things are rounded out before crucifying Treliving.  I want more, but it's also good to see him not going nuts for fluff like some other deals.  Still waiting for him to do something bold.

RedLeaf

Quote from: Dappleganger on July 02, 2023, 09:33:28 AMLeafs needed a top six forward, bottom 6 forward (who can play) and a defenseman who isn't the worst defenseman in the league (defensively) and I'd say they struck out on 3 accounts.

Pretty dismal showing. No positives to be gleaned so far with Treliving, just puzzling moves. It can get better, let's hope so.

Klingberg could work out but Ryan Reaves til 39 years of age? How was that possible?

Edit: According to Treliving, Reaves was brought in to be "vibes coordinator". Good grief.
 

You just know Dubas would have somehow already gotten us a prized forward or defenseman by now too. 
"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.." --Isaac Asimov.

L K


Bender

#219
Quote from: RedLeaf on July 02, 2023, 03:44:35 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on July 02, 2023, 09:33:28 AMLeafs needed a top six forward, bottom 6 forward (who can play) and a defenseman who isn't the worst defenseman in the league (defensively) and I'd say they struck out on 3 accounts.

Pretty dismal showing. No positives to be gleaned so far with Treliving, just puzzling moves. It can get better, let's hope so.

Klingberg could work out but Ryan Reaves til 39 years of age? How was that possible?

Edit: According to Treliving, Reaves was brought in to be "vibes coordinator". Good grief.
 

You just know Dubas would have somehow already gotten us a prized forward or defenseman by now too. 

This is so nonsensical I don't even know where to begin. So far Dubas' signings in Pitt were all depth and he tied himself to a bad Jarry contract.

*edit: Do people forget last year's opening lineup 2nd line winger was Denis freaking Malgin? The guy Mason Marchment was traded for?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

CarltonTheBear

https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1675614671678627848

Seems unlikely, but this could still be possible depending on cap hits for Domi and Samsonov if the Leafs deal Timmins and run a 20-man roster only. Which of course they have lots of experience doing.

Bender

Also, what's the deal with everyone comparing Klingberg to Gustafsson? I have a hard time believing they aren't both valued properly, or is Klingberg relying on prior Stars recognition?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

CarltonTheBear

#222
Quote from: Bender on July 02, 2023, 04:33:00 PMAlso, what's the deal with everyone comparing Klingberg to Gustafsson? I have a hard time believing they aren't both valued properly, or is Klingberg relying on prior Stars recognition?

Gustafsson has pretty much always been a bottom pair guy who can absolutely take advantage of the right situations, like when he ate up PP time on Chicago (Kane) and Washington (Ovi). Klingberg's struggled the last season, maybe last 2 seasons, but prior to that he was a pretty legitimate top-4 defenceman. Maybe even top-3 guy at his peak.

Deebo

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2023, 04:31:46 PMhttps://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1675614671678627848

Seems unlikely, but this could still be possible depending on cap hits for Domi and Samsonov if the Leafs deal Timmins and run a 20-man roster only. Which of course they have lots of experience doing.

Unless they find a way to ship Murray out.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Deebo on July 02, 2023, 04:42:35 PMUnless they find a way to ship Murray out.

Nope, that's including moving Murray already. As things stand right now he needs to be traded or bought out just to get room for Samsonov to sign.