ECF: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

[bustaheims]

https://twitter.com/minormidgetgthl/status/1661569262350213124
Every series is a bit different and hockey is very probabilistic, but after three straight instances of the exact same thing happening... I think this guy has a fair point. The teams that beat us get warmed up against us, still have the legs, rhythm, and confidence to go on to the Finals. So where I would once take solace in losing to a great team...

Except that it completely ignores the circumstances of the next series, how the games went, etc. Florida didn't roll over Carolina - they won 4 tightly contested games that could have easily gone the other way. They weren't any less beat up or rested that the Canes, they just converted on their chances and had their 2 time Vezina trophy winning goalie play arguably the best stretch of his career.

Tampa and the Leafs went toe-to-toe in a tough, physically demanding 7 game series. They then took on an inexperienced Florida team and, as two time defending champs, used the momentum they had from winning a hard fought series to impose their will.

Montreal took on a team that had swept the previous round. They were the less rested team. And, it's not like Edmonton was physically punishing for the Jets. This was also a series with two really mediocre teams going head-to-head, and the one that had less time to sit and get rusty took momentum and won.

Is it odd that the 3 most recent teams to beat the Leafs swept their next round? Sure. Is it an indication of anything? Not on it's own, no, and not when you really look at the series the Leafs' lost and the series that followed.

[princedpw]

https://twitter.com/minormidgetgthl/status/1661569262350213124
Every series is a bit different and hockey is very probabilistic, but after three straight instances of the exact same thing happening... I think this guy has a fair point. The teams that beat us get warmed up against us, still have the legs, rhythm, and confidence to go on to the Finals. So where I would once take solace in losing to a great team...

Pinning the blame for a series sweep on a team from the previous round is absurd.

Let's turn to Occam's razor for a more plausible explanation —- the teams that beat the Leafs were playing really well and the evidence is that they swept the next round (and in one case, beat the best in the history of hockey in the prior round).

[CarltonTheBear]

You can be the most structured team in all of hockey (which by most accounts the Canes were), none of it matters if you run into a hot goalie.

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/minormidgetgthl/status/1661569262350213124
Every series is a bit different and hockey is very probabilistic, but after three straight instances of the exact same thing happening... I think this guy has a fair point. The teams that beat us get warmed up against us, still have the legs, rhythm, and confidence to go on to the Finals. So where I would once take solace in losing to a great team...

I mean my counter to this would be:

Leafs lose to Montreal - win two more series after this to get to the Cup finals
Leafs lose to Tampa - win two more series after this to get to the Cup finals
Leafs lose to Florida - win next series to get to the Cup finals

So while the Leafs aren't punishing teams they are also losing to teams that continue to advance deep beyond the Leafs series.

My counter to that is the Leafs never looked dominant enough in 7yrs to go on a long run (I'd argue even after the trade deadline they didn't seem exactly right), pretty much ever compared to every other team that's made the finals in those years. One way or another all those teams did. The Panthers are a bit of an anomaly but their approach is a bit like Columbus: ride the hot goalie and counter punch to hell, and definitely seemed primed once they knocked off the best regular season team of all time. 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

It will be interesting to see a the Panthers lose their edge(game) waiting for the other series to end.