Kyle Dubas: Keep or Move?

[Bill_Berg_is_less_sad]

The more time that passes, the more I'm cool with running the core back. Dubas has to get rid of that Murray contract though. 

[Rob]

The more time that passes, the more I'm cool with running the core back. Dubas has to get rid of that Murray contract though. 

He can be bought out on the cheap. 

$687,500 this year cap hit to the Leafs and $2m cap hit next year. 

[Bill_Berg_is_less_sad]

The more time that passes, the more I'm cool with running the core back. Dubas has to get rid of that Murray contract though. 

He can be bought out on the cheap. 

$687,500 this year cap hit to the Leafs and $2m cap hit next year. 

You mean 2 mill to 2024-2025? That is the tight cap year. 2025-2026 Tavares will be off the books.

[cw]

If I'm Dubas, I would want to know where Matthews is headed before committing long term.
As well, if I'm Dubas, I am looking around because I know the wick in Toronto is considerably shorter.
If I'm Dubas, it is not a certainty that I would want to stay on.

[mr grieves]

Simple for me:

Kyle, who are you trading?

If he has a clear answer to change the roster I do everything to bring him back.  The person who has a solution to the roster design is the guy who should get the job 

My questions:
What's your plan to get Matthews to re-sign?
Who's the coach that can push whatever buttons these guys need pushed to perform in May?

I think Marner should be traded before the NMC/NTC kicks in, so long as it doesn't complicate re-signing Matthews.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

Simple for me:

Kyle, who are you trading?

If he has a clear answer to change the roster I do everything to bring him back.  The person who has a solution to the roster design is the guy who should get the job 

My questions:
What's your plan to get Matthews to re-sign?
Who's the coach that can push whatever buttons these guys need pushed to perform in May?

I think Marner should be traded before the NMC/NTC kicks in, so long as it doesn't complicate re-signing Matthews.

I can endorse all this.

[Bullfrog]

Why would we trade Marner though? He's a bonafide elite superstar.

As much as I love him -- and I LOVE him -- Willy's the first to go for sure.

[gunnar36]

I don't think anyone is taking Tavares for two more years at $11m per unless the Leaf retains salary or give up more assets.  I don't really think Tavares is a problem but a move to the wing would probably do him good.

Tavares at 32 is still a point per game player.  He's the ultimate professional and someone you want around the team. He just scored a massive goal for this team, a goal that put them into the second round.  Something Matthews, Marner or Nylander couldn't do. 

So pajamas or not, Tavares did nothing wrong to warrant having the captaincy taken away, or to be asked to waive his NMC. 

It's possible that a lower budget team with plenty of cap space (Buffalo? Arizona?) would have mild interest in Tavares. After Leafs payout his bonus July 1 this year, they would only be on the hook to pay him just under 9 million total for 2 years worth of service, probably decent value if they can absorb the 11 million cap hit.

Now getting Tavares to waive his NTC to go to a low budget team that is probably not going to even make playoffs would be a tough sell.

[bustaheims]

If I'm Dubas, I would want to know where Matthews is headed before committing long term.
As well, if I'm Dubas, I am looking around because I know the wick in Toronto is considerably shorter.
If I'm Dubas, it is not a certainty that I would want to stay on.

I can definitely see him feeling like he needs to finish what he started, especially since it wouldn't be hard for him to convince himself they're not that far from getting there (and, with a few shrewd moves/tweaks, maybe they can).

Is he the right guy to get it done? I don't know. There's certainly been a number of instances of teams needing a new perspective to get them over the hump, and part of me wonders if that's the case here. Dubas might be a little too close to things to be able to get the clear view that's needed.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

Dubas might be a little too close to things to be able to get the clear view that's needed.

Good point,  Writing off sunken costs and starting down a new path is probably one of the hardest things any manager in any organization can do.

[Bender]

If I'm Dubas, I would want to know where Matthews is headed before committing long term.
As well, if I'm Dubas, I am looking around because I know the wick in Toronto is considerably shorter.
If I'm Dubas, it is not a certainty that I would want to stay on.

I can definitely see him feeling like he needs to finish what he started, especially since it wouldn't be hard for him to convince himself they're not that far from getting there (and, with a few shrewd moves/tweaks, maybe they can).

Is he the right guy to get it done? I don't know. There's certainly been a number of instances of teams needing a new perspective to get them over the hump, and part of me wonders if that's the case here. Dubas might be a little too close to things to be able to get the clear view that's needed.

If he stays he has to get cutthroat. He can't be chummy with the guys and if they ask for an unreasonable number and are unwilling to budge you sign and trade. This team can't have their stars eating that much of the cap, they just can't. It hasn't worked and it won't work, there just isn't enough depth. If any of them want anywhere near McDavid or Mackinnon money you have to walk. I love Auston but he's just not in that tier and the cap has barely moved. I'd 100% rather have Pastrnaks new contract than Marners old contract, so fat chance there's any outplaying of either of their next contracts. I'd only keep him because I think some stability at the top is important for future decision making which has to happen soon and if the Leafs decide they have to pivot and maybe reload in a year or two then so be it. We saw this with St. Louis and the like. If everyone at the top is gone you kind of wonder what incentive there is for a player to stay given the uncertainty.

Not against keeping him, but he has to recognize now that playoff hockey is a different beast and the team needs to somehow find a way to better insulate themselves against poor performances or injury through wave after wave of depth. Carolina has it, the Kraken have it, Vegas has it (except for goaltending).

[Bender]

Dubas might be a little too close to things to be able to get the clear view that's needed.

Good point,  Writing off sunken costs and starting down a new path is probably one of the hardest things any manager in any organization can do.

He has written off sunk costs before, I'm just surprised how many each GM made over the years that necessitated us moving off first or second round picks to fix mistakes. We also can't let players constantly walk to free agency. Would've been nice to get off of Kerfoot while we had the chance.

[cw]

If I'm Dubas, I would want to know where Matthews is headed before committing long term.
As well, if I'm Dubas, I am looking around because I know the wick in Toronto is considerably shorter.
If I'm Dubas, it is not a certainty that I would want to stay on.

I can definitely see him feeling like he needs to finish what he started, especially since it wouldn't be hard for him to convince himself they're not that far from getting there (and, with a few shrewd moves/tweaks, maybe they can).

I think his reactions in the suite above the rink during the games showed how into it he was - how much he cared about the outcome.
I can't imagine there would not be an element of that in his thinking.
And a pride element of wanting to finish what he started - surrounded by a bunch of people he hired.
In round one, his job was on the line so some might argue that was part of it.
His job is still on the line ...
But I suspect his emotions during the games were more than that.

Is he the right guy to get it done? I don't know.

I'm not sure either.

In my mind, there is little question that some of the playoff struggles and where he finds himself today is on him. In his early years as GM, he seemed to be heavier into the analytics that overvalued skill and undervalued size & grit. A couple of spankings in the playoffs underscored that and he's been playing catchup in that regard with his roster ever since. Part of the failure to score in these recent playoffs was not due to a lack of skill - it arguably related to a lack of guys to win the puck battles along the boards and score the dirty goals in their top 6.

There's certainly been a number of instances of teams needing a new perspective to get them over the hump, and part of me wonders if that's the case here. Dubas might be a little too close to things to be able to get the clear view that's needed.

Maybe.

If Dubas goes, Keefe probably isn't far behind because the new GM often wants his own coach.

Matthews is going to be tough to keep because the prospect cupboard is pretty bare. Nylander could be tougher to keep for the same reason but there might be something also left over from his holdout.

There is a fair chance they may only have one year left with Matthews and Nylander. So the new GM & coach might have to get acquainted with what they have, turn it around and pull it off within a year?
That leads me to maybe give Dubas more time or you could derail their last shot with this core.

Put yourself in Dubas' shoes. MLSE didn't lock him up last summer so he knows they were not bubbling with confidence in him. If he knows Matthews & Nylander are going to depart, what does his job security look like if they fall short next spring? The torches and pitchforks will be out.

Scotty Bowman was a great coach. But he helped himself a lot by looking at when to move on and the situation he was moving on to. If I were in Dubas' shoes, I'd be looking around at what all my options are. That was part of the risk MLSE took when they did not extend him. I'll bet there are rosier situations for Dubas's career elsewhere that might not be there when he's probably fired a year or two from now.

[Arn]

. I'll bet there are rosier situations for Dubas's career elsewhere that might not be there when he's probably fired a year or two from now.

The Penguins job is bound to be quite attractive, I'd imagine.

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1658083556600446978

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!