The Core

[Bender]

A better first-take postmortem is by Drain over at MLHS:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/05/13/how-the-2023-leafs-were-defeated-and-what-comes-next/

Note that he appropriately isn't too dogmatic about what should happen. 

From my perspective the Leafs did the bare minimum they needed to do this playoff: got out of R1.  Is it good enough?  No, but it is a step forward.  Is it good enough to save Dubas's job?  Read Drain on that.

I wonder how we would all feel if, as everyone expected, Boston had beaten Florida, and then went on to beat us 4-1 in R2.  Would you have been surprised?  I wouldn't have.  Boston looked invincible going into the postseason.   (I'm not too happy right now, but I bet I am happier than every Bruin fan on the face of the earth.)

This R2 really stings because the Leafs should have won it, period.  That doesn't mean that I think they had a pass to the SCF.  Both Carolina and NJ had better records than us.

I think all we wanted really was the round to end competitively in at least a 4-2 fashion. I think if we lose in 7 you don't get the same kind of off-season change we're probably going to see after losing in 5.

[hobarth]

A better first-take postmortem is by Drain over at MLHS:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/05/13/how-the-2023-leafs-were-defeated-and-what-comes-next/

Note that he appropriately isn't too dogmatic about what should happen. 

From my perspective the Leafs did the bare minimum they needed to do this playoff: got out of R1.  Is it good enough?  No, but it is a step forward.  Is it good enough to save Dubas's job?  Read Drain on that.

I wonder how we would all feel if, as everyone expected, Boston had beaten Florida, and then went on to beat us 4-1 in R2.  Would you have been surprised?  I wouldn't have.  Boston looked invincible going into the postseason.   (I'm not too happy right now, but I bet I am happier than every Bruin fan on the face of the earth.)

This R2 really stings because the Leafs should have won it, period.  That doesn't mean that I think they had a pass to the SCF.  Both Carolina and NJ had better records than us.

I think all we wanted really was the round to end competitively in at least a 4-2 fashion. I think if we lose in 7 you don't get the same kind of off-season change we're probably going to see after losing in 5.

Beyond that, I felt and I think most Leaf fans feel that TO was outplayed by TB, games of being outshot 2 to one by TB who were playing with Hedman in and out of the lineup really says that TO's lineup is flawed and needs a serious retool. Too much money being spent on too few being the first and most obvious problem and that core is soon going to be looking for more money. If we could see the level of commitment from Marner as we saw from his last contract negotiation, I'm sure TO would have done better in past playoffs.

I wanted Boston to win their 1st series and TO to beat them in the next. 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

When you pelt a goalie with 53 shots, 90% of the time you win that game, I really think we're witnessing something special from Bobrovsky, and Samsonov did let in weak ones in game one and two, as mentioned above we got out goalied plain and simple, hopefully Woll grows into the goalie we need. That being said I also agree that some of the core needs to go.

[hobarth]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs, every year, unlikely I'd say, too many peripheral players, not enough quality shots off of rebounds or from the slot. I've felt especially in this playoff that the quality of TO's offense was poor, Matthews constantly taking distance shots and never going to the net wasn't working like it has against Anaheim and Detroit during the regular season, TO's core can't/won't adapt year after year so TO gets goalied out of the playoffs.

I know we do occasionally see Matthews parked in front of the opposition's net, what we needed from him and others was for him to carry the puck to the opposition's net using his size to impose his will, I question his will, his character.

[azzurri63]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs, every year, unlikely I'd say, too many peripheral players, not enough quality shots off of rebounds or from the slot. I've felt especially in this playoff that the quality of TO's offense was poor, Matthews constantly taking distance shots and never going to the net wasn't working like it has against Anaheim and Detroit during the regular season, TO's core can't/won't adapt year after year so TO gets goalied out of the playoffs.

I know we do occasionally see Matthews parked in front of the opposition's net, what we needed from him and others was for him to carry the puck to the opposition's net using his size to impose his will, I question his will, his character.

That's why you unfortunately ship him off. I am completely dumbfounded by some on here who say get on him and get an extension. I just cringe at the amount of money they will probably give him. Personally I don't think a raise is even warranted. They haven't proved a single thing in the playoffs and were paid handsomely yet we'll probably stay with the same core and screwup our cap even more. We've been unable to bring in a bonafide goalie or D man because of our cap. Make some changes and if not I guarantee you guys will be talking about the same disappointment next year. It aint working. How much more do we have to see to figure that out.

[Significantly Insignificant]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs, every year, unlikely I'd say, too many peripheral players, not enough quality shots off of rebounds or from the slot. I've felt especially in this playoff that the quality of TO's offense was poor, Matthews constantly taking distance shots and never going to the net wasn't working like it has against Anaheim and Detroit during the regular season, TO's core can't/won't adapt year after year so TO gets goalied out of the playoffs.

I know we do occasionally see Matthews parked in front of the opposition's net, what we needed from him and others was for him to carry the puck to the opposition's net using his size to impose his will, I question his will, his character.

That's why you unfortunately ship him off. I am completely dumbfounded by some on here who say get on him and get an extension. I just cringe at the amount of money they will probably give him. Personally I don't think a raise is even warranted. They haven't proved a single thing in the playoffs and were paid handsomely yet we'll probably stay with the same core and screwup our cap even more. We've been unable to bring in a bonafide goalie or D man because of our cap. Make some changes and if not I guarantee you guys will be talking about the same disappointment next year. It aint working. How much more do we have to see to figure that out.

So just because the Leafs trade Matthews, that doesn't necessarily guarantee the following:
a) That the Leafs will make the playoffs again
b) That they will perform better in the playoffs.

Which team is going to trade assets for Matthews?  If he is as horrible a player as you say, do you think the Leafs are going to fool other teams into giving them this amazing hockey player who will guarantee playoff wins for the Leafs in exchange for Matthews who doesn't do anything for a team wins at all?  How exactly are the Leafs selling that trade?

Right now the Leafs make the playoffs.  They have made it each year that Matthews has been on the team.  Are you going to be happy to going back to not making the playoffs at all?  Just because something changes does not guarantee that the change will be positive for the Leafs, so it is possible that once you trade Matthews, all of sudden the Leafs stop making the playoffs altogether.  There are two possible ways that trading Matthews could go, and in all your talk, all you ever focus on is this hypothetical better scenario where the Leafs win the cup just by trading out Matthews. What if that doesn't happen?

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

Matthews has a couple of Rockets, a Calder, and a Hart.  He's grown into a good defensive player.  No, he hasn't taken the team on his shoulders and led us to Gloryland.  Yet.  But he is an elite talent.  You don't walk away from that.

[azzurri63]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs, every year, unlikely I'd say, too many peripheral players, not enough quality shots off of rebounds or from the slot. I've felt especially in this playoff that the quality of TO's offense was poor, Matthews constantly taking distance shots and never going to the net wasn't working like it has against Anaheim and Detroit during the regular season, TO's core can't/won't adapt year after year so TO gets goalied out of the playoffs.

I know we do occasionally see Matthews parked in front of the opposition's net, what we needed from him and others was for him to carry the puck to the opposition's net using his size to impose his will, I question his will, his character.

That's why you unfortunately ship him off. I am completely dumbfounded by some on here who say get on him and get an extension. I just cringe at the amount of money they will probably give him. Personally I don't think a raise is even warranted. They haven't proved a single thing in the playoffs and were paid handsomely yet we'll probably stay with the same core and screwup our cap even more. We've been unable to bring in a bonafide goalie or D man because of our cap. Make some changes and if not I guarantee you guys will be talking about the same disappointment next year. It aint working. How much more do we have to see to figure that out.

So just because the Leafs trade Matthews, that doesn't necessarily guarantee the following:
a) That the Leafs will make the playoffs again
b) That they will perform better in the playoffs.

Which team is going to trade assets for Matthews?  If he is as horrible a player as you say, do you think the Leafs are going to fool other teams into giving them this amazing hockey player who will guarantee playoff wins for the Leafs in exchange for Matthews who doesn't do anything for a team wins at all?  How exactly are the Leafs selling that trade?

Right now the Leafs make the playoffs.  They have made it each year that Matthews has been on the team.  Are you going to be happy to going back to not making the playoffs at all?  Just because something changes does not guarantee that the change will be positive for the Leafs, so it is possible that once you trade Matthews, all of sudden the Leafs stop making the playoffs altogether.  There are two possible ways that trading Matthews could go, and in all your talk, all you ever focus on is this hypothetical better scenario where the Leafs win the cup just by trading out Matthews. What if that doesn't happen?

Who says he's a horrible player. Where have I actually stated that. My beef and it has been ever since we paid him and Marner top dollar before proving anything. If you look and I've stated this before at other teams with less talent going further than us. If they trade him is it 100% guaranteed they will miss the playoffs? Nobody can answer that. Will they be worse off? Who know all depends on the return. My biggest issue with the two stars is they don't perform well in the playoffs or under pressure. Is that going to change? Who knows. My question is how long do you keep going with it until enough is enough? Trading a star not only helps us maybe fill in some holes but it may help us cap wise. Team was in cap hell and if we resign him to an even bigger contract along with Nylander we'll be there again until Tavares comes off the books. The core and heavy contracts for the 4 of them in my opinion hasn't worked so maybe a change in philosophy is needed. That's why I say somebody needs to go. You'd be surprised with a well rounded team with some grit and heart how far they can go. Talent isn't the only thing that wins you a cup.

[AtomicMapleLeaf]

The Oil should trade McJesus and that German guy, because they lost.

[Nik]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs

I like how you say this like it's some crazy fan theory and not what we've all seen happen plain as day.

Since Matthews/Marner/Nylander have been on this team the Leafs have played in seven Best of 7 series'. In every single one, all seven, the goalie they faced was a Vezina winner.

[hobarth]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs

I like how you say this like it's some crazy fan theory and not what we've all seen happen plain as day.

Since Matthews/Marner/Nylander have been on this team the Leafs have played in seven Best of 7 series'. In every single one, all seven, the goalie they faced was a Vezina winner.

So you agree or rather accept the popular this goalied theory.

Let's look back in time and see Chicago's first Cup in the 2000s was earned with some guy named Niemala(I'm too lazy to look up his name, Pitts won 2 Cups with Murray goaltending, there were Vezina trophy winners those seasons yet they didn't goalie their opposition to ultimately win the Cup, TO thru 7 years gets goalied out of the playoffs, amazing coincidence, don't you think?

The weak will succumb, the strong will overcome. What we're seeing from this TO team during the regular season isn't something new, the Sittler teams were very good, the Quinn teams were also strong. Hang onto these losers for longer and the 56 year drought will be extended many more years, realize that they are losers and use them to rebuild could be a faster and better way to win the Cup.

Get rid of this core and TO will probably not make the playoffs, the major benefit of this, TO will not be goalied out of the playoffs for an 8th straight year, ha.

I didn't mind anything Dubie did for his first years, giving AM & MM those big contracts wasn't out of line for their talent, signing JT made tons of more sense than the nonsensical signing of Marleau, 2 great centers, a great winger and another exceptional winger was a good starting point, covid ruined that.

We've all seen where teams want to protect the youth from the losing culture of a bad team, I think AM, MM and WN have been exposed to bad culture in TO, heads needed to roll because of the constant poor playoff showings, Dubie keeping his job and not finding better ways to improve the Leafs seems a systemic acceptance of losing, he should've been fired last year and he definitely needs to go now along with Keefe and especially Shanny.

[Nik]

Let's look back in time and see Chicago's first Cup in the 2000s was earned with some guy named Niemala(I'm too lazy to look up his name, Pitts won 2 Cups with Murray goaltending, there were Vezina trophy winners those seasons yet they didn't goalie their opposition to ultimately win the Cup, TO thru 7 years gets goalied out of the playoffs, amazing coincidence, don't you think?

No, it's just a fact. There's nothing particularly unusual about teams with not very good goaltending getting eliminated in the playoffs by teams with better goaltending. It is very frequently the deciding factor between series of relatively equal teams and is usually the main cause of what passes for upsets in the modern NHL. The Sundin-Roberts Leafs were often on the other end of that behind Cujo.

[4EVRLEAFAN]

The prevailing wisdom amongst Leaf fans is that TO gets out goalied every year in the playoffs

I like how you say this like it's some crazy fan theory and not what we've all seen happen plain as day.

Since Matthews/Marner/Nylander have been on this team the Leafs have played in seven Best of 7 series'. In every single one, all seven, the goalie they faced was a Vezina winner.

So you agree or rather accept the popular this goalied theory.

Let's look back in time and see Chicago's first Cup in the 2000s was earned with some guy named Niemala(I'm too lazy to look up his name, Pitts won 2 Cups with Murray goaltending, there were Vezina trophy winners those seasons yet they didn't goalie their opposition to ultimately win the Cup, TO thru 7 years gets goalied out of the playoffs, amazing coincidence, don't you think?

The weak will succumb, the strong will overcome. What we're seeing from this TO team during the regular season isn't something new, the Sittler teams were very good, the Quinn teams were also strong. Hang onto these losers for longer and the 56 year drought will be extended many more years, realize that they are losers and use them to rebuild could be a faster and better way to win the Cup.

Get rid of this core and TO will probably not make the playoffs, the major benefit of this, TO will not be goalied out of the playoffs for an 8th straight year, ha.

I didn't mind anything Dubie did for his first years, giving AM & MM those big contracts wasn't out of line for their talent, signing JT made tons of more sense than the nonsensical signing of Marleau, 2 great centers, a great winger and another exceptional winger was a good starting point, covid ruined that.

We've all seen where teams want to protect the youth from the losing culture of a bad team, I think AM, MM and WN have been exposed to bad culture in TO, heads needed to roll because of the constant poor playoff showings, Dubie keeping his job and not finding better ways to improve the Leafs seems a systemic acceptance of losing, he should've been fired last year and he definitely needs to go now along with Keefe and especially Shanny.

Let's look back in time and see Chicago's first Cup in the 2000s was earned with some guy named Niemala(I'm too lazy to look up his name, Pitts won 2 Cups with Murray goaltending, there were Vezina trophy winners those seasons yet they didn't goalie their opposition to ultimately win the Cup, TO thru 7 years gets goalied out of the playoffs, amazing coincidence, don't you think?

No, it's just a fact. There's nothing particularly unusual about teams with not very good goaltending getting eliminated in the playoffs by teams with better goaltending. It is very frequently the deciding factor between series of relatively equal teams and is usually the main cause of what passes for upsets in the modern NHL. The Sundin-Roberts Leafs were often on the other end of that behind Cujo.

Amazing how many aren't seeing it, I'm just as upset as everyone else but if they can't see what Bobrovsky is doing we can't help them. "IF" and I can't stress that enough as we know he can falter but if he can keep it up we are watching 1993 Roy again and the Panthers will win the Cup.

[cabber24]

I'm talking playoffs, Matthews does what he does every year and normally the excuse is he's playing hurt.

Again TO could only score 2 goals, Matthews zero, superstars show up when it counts, no excuses well maybe occasionally but certainly not consistently like Matthews.

TO isn't going to do well in the playoffs relying on Matthews and he's only signed for one more year, time to move on.

Thank you for the post.  This is very enlightening.  I appreciate getting the perspective of the Leafs from the other side of the bell curve.

These are the same type of posters who then, years later say, "why did they give up on Kessel, see what a force he was in those 2 Cup wins? Why did they give up on Kadri, see what a force he was in that Cup win?". You can't win with these haters. Grass is always greener on the other side

Yup which is why I choose to ignore most of them.

It's also the reason no one's here anymore.

[cabber24]

Unless you can trade any of the core for another team's core defenseman I think you run it back again with a new coach.