Playoffs Round 1: Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (A3)

[herman]

https://twitter.com/cmhockey66/status/1650897835422892037

[yuzisee]

If the Leafs look to advanced stats to help with this decision, there are two ways to view performance:

(a) ZAR is struggling slightly more than Lafferty against the TB forecheck: 5v5 xG% across 4 games so far shows the team is hemmed in most frequently when ZAR is on the ice


or, (b) maybe we say the 4th line only needs to win a faceoff, pass the puck to a defender, and then make room for a line change. Here 5v5 xG% of the next 5 seconds after a player leaves the ice shows ZAR is completely ineffective at this against TB's structures so far and Lafferty is actually doing quite well. Being able to successfully hand off the puck to a Matthews line, or ROR line, or Tavares line is critical in a series like this.


(On an unrelated positive note, it looks like Knies is very smart at choosing the right moments to leave the ice)

[Bill33]

No offense, but drawing any sort of inference about a 4th liner's effectiveness on a relatively low minute 4 game sample regarding what happens immediately after they get off the ice seems incredibly shaky.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

Cooper's line is that Vasilevskiy isn't making mistakes and nobody stops any of the tips last night.  Fair enough.  He's putting the onus on the defense allowing the Leafs to be in Vasi's kitchen too much.

It's been a weird series.  Two blowouts and two improbable comebacks.

[Arn]

I don't think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don't need any further encouragement.

We'll need him later in the series or the later rounds.

[Guilt Trip]

I don't think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don't need any further encouragement.

We'll need him later in the series or the later rounds.

So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.

[Arn]

I don't think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don't need any further encouragement.

We'll need him later in the series or the later rounds.

So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.

I'm torn on both sides of the argument tbh.

But I genuinely don't trust the officials to call stuff against him.

I feel like playing him could over shadow the game and change how the leafs end up playing also if they end up having to compensate in the silly stuff rather than focus on playing.

[Significantly Insignificant]

My fear is that if the Leafs don't win this in 5, they are going to lose it in 7.

[Guilt Trip]

I don't think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don't need any further encouragement.

We'll need him later in the series or the later rounds.

So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.

I'm torn on both sides of the argument tbh.

But I genuinely don't trust the officials to call stuff against him.

I feel like playing him could over shadow the game and change how the leafs end up playing also if they end up having to compensate in the silly stuff rather than focus on playing.

I don't think T Bay gets into the silly stuff because it really hasn't worked for them. They need to play a smothering game and have no time to worry about Bunting with the season on the line.
Tough call though for Keefe.

[herman]

https://twitter.com/goalie_school/status/1650991465206513670

[Dappleganger]

Take out Lafferty and ZAR and replace them with Bunting and Simmonds. Give Bunting some back up so he doesn't have to be the tough guy.

Give Gio and Holl a game off and insert Liljegren and Gustafsson (Swede connection).

Go with some fresh legs. Get some jump in their game.

Leafs have some depth, they should use it.

[Kaberle15]

Take out Lafferty and ZAR and replace them with Bunting and Simmonds. Give Bunting some back up so he doesn't have to be the tough guy.

Give Gio and Holl a game off and insert Liljegren and Gustafsson (Swede connection).

Go with some fresh legs. Get some jump in their game.

Leafs have some depth, they should use it.

Not a good idea to change 4 of 18 skaters, including 2 Ds.

As for Bunting, I can see good arguments for him to be in or out of the line-up.

TBH, is a good thing to have those kind of "problems"

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jhanhky/status/1651039127566008321

[L K]

I don't think I bring Bunting back in yet.

I think putting him back in straight away gives Tampa a focal point to fire them up and they don't need any further encouragement.

We'll need him later in the series or the later rounds.

So we're scared of how TBay will react or get extra motivation? They won't need it on Thursday. And if they want to focus on Bunting, good, go ahead. I'm still on the fence but only because they've won 3 in a row but shouldn't we be playing our best? Play like we're down 3-1, play to win. Bunting is a lot better then Lafferty and ZAR so putting Kerfoot down on the 4th line and Bunting with ROR.
I seriously hope when he does go back in they chase him all over the ice and punch him every chance they get and get penalized for it. He just needs to not engage in that stuff.

I'm leaning more toward playing him in a sheltered role.  Third or 4th line and not in the top 6.  He's still a back to back 20 goal scorer and has 3 points in 7GP last playoffs.

The Leafs stole two wins playing 1-2 periods of good hockey along with a few other brief spurts.  If Tampa wants to chase Bunting around the ice in an elimination game so be it.  I'd probably take ZAR out of the lineup over Lafferty but I don't think either guy has really done enough to stay in the lineup 

[IJustLurkHere]

On another topic, the position the Leafs find themselves in has made the Keep/Fire Dubas question rather simple.  If they blow this series, there's no way they can keep him.  If they don't, there's almost no way they can fire him.  I hedge that last remark a bit ... I guess if they got absolutely blown out in R2 they might can him.

Can you expand on this for me please? I am struggling to understand what action Dubas can take which would impact the series. Inputs vs. outputs, Dubas has - for better or worse - finished his work. He's now little more than a high profile fan.