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2023 Blue Jays thread

Started by Frank E, March 10, 2023, 10:52:26 AM

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azzurri63

I think management needs to get on Guerrero and Kirk and tell them to get in shape. Athletes nowadays are coddled way too much. Vladdy came into spring training 2 years ago in great shape, weight down and he had a decent season. This year back to his old self.

Arn

This is quite a well written piece for those with an Athletic subscription.

https://theathletic.com/4935886/2023/10/06/mlb-managers-analytics-bad-calls/

Basically saying that analytics have a place but shouldn't be the be all and end all and players and manager should be able to react on "feel" to situations and not be afraid to go with it.

It gives Counsell as an example where he stuck with someone when the analytics probably suggested taking them out. And they lost. But makes the point that the players have more trust in that system and that trust between players and management builds a better atmosphere and culture.

Some of the quotes from Jays players certainly suggest a lack of belief and trust in management (and particularly the Berrios decision) and I wonder if that has had some kind of underlying effect over the course of the year and might explain why they never looked to be as loose and having as much fun as prior years.
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Joe

That's interesting and all, and as much as I thought pulling Berrios was asinine, this is not the reason they lost the game.

IJustLurkHere

Quote from: Andy on October 05, 2023, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Arn on October 05, 2023, 08:17:39 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on October 05, 2023, 05:30:56 AMNote: John Schneider's decision to pull Berrios in the bottom of the 4th is an absolute headscratcher.

Everything I'm reading seems to suggest this was a pre-planned move agreed with the wider management group based on data.

Now, I'm all for using data to help. But you know, I was watching the game and could see how Berios looked as well...

Yea, I mean I always cringe when I hear the term "Analytics" negatively thrown around and mocked by people who don't understand that it's basically just the idea of looking at more, in-depth information. You should always want to have more than less information. It's the interpretation and utilization of that information that's the problem. If the data says that the more a pitcher goes through a lineup the more susceptible he becomes, that is good information to have and you can act on it accordingly. It absolutely never means take out a pitcher who is dialed in and mowing through batters after 47 pitchers because its the 2nd time facing a lefthanded batter.

Interesting how this has become a narrative. Honestly... Berrios wasn't pitching THAT well. He'd struck out the side the inning before, but that was 8, 9, 1. Boosted his Ks to look good. He'd given up a hit every inning, including to Correa who was on deck when they made the change. He'd just walked the leadoff man.

Don't love the change, but I get giving the ball to Kikuchi in the situation.

L K

Quote from: IJustLurkHere on October 07, 2023, 09:05:51 PM
Quote from: Andy on October 05, 2023, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Arn on October 05, 2023, 08:17:39 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on October 05, 2023, 05:30:56 AMNote: John Schneider's decision to pull Berrios in the bottom of the 4th is an absolute headscratcher.

Everything I'm reading seems to suggest this was a pre-planned move agreed with the wider management group based on data.

Now, I'm all for using data to help. But you know, I was watching the game and could see how Berios looked as well...

Yea, I mean I always cringe when I hear the term "Analytics" negatively thrown around and mocked by people who don't understand that it's basically just the idea of looking at more, in-depth information. You should always want to have more than less information. It's the interpretation and utilization of that information that's the problem. If the data says that the more a pitcher goes through a lineup the more susceptible he becomes, that is good information to have and you can act on it accordingly. It absolutely never means take out a pitcher who is dialed in and mowing through batters after 47 pitchers because its the 2nd time facing a lefthanded batter.

Interesting how this has become a narrative. Honestly... Berrios wasn't pitching THAT well. He'd struck out the side the inning before, but that was 8, 9, 1. Boosted his Ks to look good. He'd given up a hit every inning, including to Correa who was on deck when they made the change. He'd just walked the leadoff man.

Don't love the change, but I get giving the ball to Kikuchi in the situation.

Kikuchi in September pitched to a 5.02 ERA and 1.465 WHIP.  He wasn't pitching well down the stretch.  I think Kikuchi should have been one of the last guys out of the pen in a tight game.

Bender

Quote from: IJustLurkHere on October 07, 2023, 09:05:51 PM
Quote from: Andy on October 05, 2023, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Arn on October 05, 2023, 08:17:39 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on October 05, 2023, 05:30:56 AMNote: John Schneider's decision to pull Berrios in the bottom of the 4th is an absolute headscratcher.

Everything I'm reading seems to suggest this was a pre-planned move agreed with the wider management group based on data.

Now, I'm all for using data to help. But you know, I was watching the game and could see how Berios looked as well...

Yea, I mean I always cringe when I hear the term "Analytics" negatively thrown around and mocked by people who don't understand that it's basically just the idea of looking at more, in-depth information. You should always want to have more than less information. It's the interpretation and utilization of that information that's the problem. If the data says that the more a pitcher goes through a lineup the more susceptible he becomes, that is good information to have and you can act on it accordingly. It absolutely never means take out a pitcher who is dialed in and mowing through batters after 47 pitchers because its the 2nd time facing a lefthanded batter.

Interesting how this has become a narrative. Honestly... Berrios wasn't pitching THAT well. He'd struck out the side the inning before, but that was 8, 9, 1. Boosted his Ks to look good. He'd given up a hit every inning, including to Correa who was on deck when they made the change. He'd just walked the leadoff man.

Don't love the change, but I get giving the ball to Kikuchi in the situation.

Some would argue walking the leadoff player who is probably their best power hitter isn't really a problem though.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Bill_Berg_is_pissed_off

#171
Quote from: Bender on October 08, 2023, 12:58:30 AM
Quote from: IJustLurkHere on October 07, 2023, 09:05:51 PM
Quote from: Andy on October 05, 2023, 10:12:49 AM
Quote from: Arn on October 05, 2023, 08:17:39 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on October 05, 2023, 05:30:56 AMNote: John Schneider's decision to pull Berrios in the bottom of the 4th is an absolute headscratcher.

Everything I'm reading seems to suggest this was a pre-planned move agreed with the wider management group based on data.

Now, I'm all for using data to help. But you know, I was watching the game and could see how Berios looked as well...

Yea, I mean I always cringe when I hear the term "Analytics" negatively thrown around and mocked by people who don't understand that it's basically just the idea of looking at more, in-depth information. You should always want to have more than less information. It's the interpretation and utilization of that information that's the problem. If the data says that the more a pitcher goes through a lineup the more susceptible he becomes, that is good information to have and you can act on it accordingly. It absolutely never means take out a pitcher who is dialed in and mowing through batters after 47 pitchers because its the 2nd time facing a lefthanded batter.

Interesting how this has become a narrative. Honestly... Berrios wasn't pitching THAT well. He'd struck out the side the inning before, but that was 8, 9, 1. Boosted his Ks to look good. He'd given up a hit every inning, including to Correa who was on deck when they made the change. He'd just walked the leadoff man.

Don't love the change, but I get giving the ball to Kikuchi in the situation.

Some would argue walking the leadoff player who is probably their best power hitter isn't really a problem though.

They scored 1 run in 18 innings.  Pitching wasn't the problem.

OldTimeHockey

I don't think anyone is saying that pitching was/is the problem. People are saying that management decisions is the problem. Yes, the focus is on the Berrios pulling but management of the bench was a problem several times this season.

Arn

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on October 08, 2023, 06:47:07 AMI don't think anyone is saying that pitching was/is the problem. People are saying that management decisions is the problem. Yes, the focus is on the Berrios pulling but management of the bench was a problem several times this season.

Correct. And postulating that the management was thus having an impact on the hitting as it was having negative impacts on the psyche of the players.

And from what I watched of the team as I've said they seemed to have lost the "looseness" that characterised the offence. If they are uptight they are likely to hit and run less well.

This specific decision has just kind of been a final tipping point to really kick off the discussion and I think there is potentially something to it.
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

IJustLurkHere

Quote from: Bender on October 08, 2023, 12:58:30 AM
Quote from: IJustLurkHere on October 07, 2023, 09:05:51 PM
Quote from: Andy on October 05, 2023, 10:12:49 AMYea, I mean I always cringe when I hear the term "Analytics" negatively thrown around and mocked by people who don't understand that it's basically just the idea of looking at more, in-depth information. You should always want to have more than less information. It's the interpretation and utilization of that information that's the problem. If the data says that the more a pitcher goes through a lineup the more susceptible he becomes, that is good information to have and you can act on it accordingly. It absolutely never means take out a pitcher who is dialed in and mowing through batters after 47 pitchers because its the 2nd time facing a lefthanded batter.

Interesting how this has become a narrative. Honestly... Berrios wasn't pitching THAT well. He'd struck out the side the inning before, but that was 8, 9, 1. Boosted his Ks to look good. He'd given up a hit every inning, including to Correa who was on deck when they made the change. He'd just walked the leadoff man.

Don't love the change, but I get giving the ball to Kikuchi in the situation.

Some would argue walking the leadoff player who is probably their best power hitter isn't really a problem though.

And that's a valid argument. My point is really only that following the media, you'd think this was a repeat of Blake Snell in the World Series and it isn't. You've got a man on first, nobody out, Kepler and Correa (who already has a hit) coming up and a pregame plan that says you're going to piggyback Kikuchi. I don't necessarily love the plan itself (though I'm entirely willing to believe that the Jays have numbers that say the percentages fall better than way), but if that is the plan, I don't think Berrios was throwing so well that you had to abandon it.

herman

Someone explain why the Jays shouldn't throw open the vault doors at Rogers for Shohei Otani

Because I can only see upside (and my renewed interest in the Jays).
#27

Arn

I've read that they're a "sleeper" in terms of getting him, but they should absolutely be all in. Even if he can't pitch next season his bat immediately takes the team up a notch.
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

herman

#177
Quote from: Arn on November 29, 2023, 12:54:36 PMI've read that they're a "sleeper" in terms of getting him, but they should absolutely be all in. Even if he can't pitch next season his bat immediately takes the team up a notch.

Yep; we still have a rotation this coming season which takes pressure off him.
It sounds like the Jays (and Cubs) are the only ones still in it against the LA teams.
#27

Arn

Also now being strongly linked with Soto.

Can't see them managing to pull both signings off, but imagine they did 😦
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

L K

Quote from: Arn on December 01, 2023, 05:45:16 PMAlso now being strongly linked with Soto.

Can't see them managing to pull both signings off, but imagine they did 😦

As a rental only player I'm less interested in Soto.  He's going to cost a lot but as a Boras client you get absolutely no guarantee of him staying.  I don't want to see them trading a prospect like Tiedemann.

Obviously he's a phenomenal player and he easily would be our best offensive player but I don't love the idea of depleting our prospect pool when we don't have either of Bichette or Guerrero locked up for the future.