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Horvat to NYI

Started by bustaheims, January 30, 2023, 05:49:03 PM

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Nik

Quote from: bustaheims on January 30, 2023, 09:30:26 PMTiming plays into it for me. If this deal happened late on deadline day, then at least you could feel as though they explored every possible avenue and found this was the best deal they could get. But, thus far away from the deadline? Feels like they jumped the gun. They didn't have to make this deal for a few weeks, and even if the Islanders weren't willing to wait, I have to imagine another team would have happily put forth a similar offer in deadline day.

I suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi


Zee

If the Islanders continue to flounder and aren't in a playoff spot by the deadline, any chance Lou does a shrewd move and trades Horvat for more than he gave up?

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Zee on January 31, 2023, 08:26:23 AMIf the Islanders continue to flounder and aren't in a playoff spot by the deadline, any chance Lou does a shrewd move and trades Horvat for more than he gave up?

Flipping him at a $2mil cap hit for a bigger return would be pretty shrewd, so I doubt it happens.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: herman on January 31, 2023, 02:03:59 AM-___-

Since that statement's just made up anyway he should have said it's like they got 6 first rounders in return.

bustaheims

Quote from: Nik on January 31, 2023, 01:06:12 AMI suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.

I guess that's fair - though, I also wonder how much Horvat changes things there now that his shooting percentage has started to regress a little and with the teams ahead of them in the Tankathon being so awful. Waiting probably doesn't change much in regards to the return or their lottery odds, but it would have improved the optics.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Nik

Quote from: bustaheims on January 31, 2023, 11:29:24 AM
Quote from: Nik on January 31, 2023, 01:06:12 AMI suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.

I guess that's fair - though, I also wonder how much Horvat changes things there now that his shooting percentage has started to regress a little and with the teams ahead of them in the Tankathon being so awful. Waiting probably doesn't change much in regards to the return or their lottery odds, but it would have improved the optics.

But that's the double edged sword. Trading Horvat doesn't just remove him from the lineup it also demoralizes the guys left behind. Well, it would provided there was much in the way of morale left in the Canucks dressing room.

Still, it's a solid adherence to the tanking principle.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Bill_Berg

Quote from: Nik on January 31, 2023, 12:29:39 PM
Quote from: bustaheims on January 31, 2023, 11:29:24 AM
Quote from: Nik on January 31, 2023, 01:06:12 AMI suppose to some extent the calculation then becomes: what's the benefit in holding on to see if you possibly get a better return a few weeks from now vs. doing everything you can to maximize your chances in the Bedard sweepstakes.

I guess that's fair - though, I also wonder how much Horvat changes things there now that his shooting percentage has started to regress a little and with the teams ahead of them in the Tankathon being so awful. Waiting probably doesn't change much in regards to the return or their lottery odds, but it would have improved the optics.

But that's the double edged sword. Trading Horvat doesn't just remove him from the lineup it also demoralizes the guys left behind. Well, it would provided there was much in the way of morale left in the Canucks dressing room.

Still, it's a solid adherence to the tanking principle.

NHL teams never tank!

bustaheims

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

CarltonTheBear

Honestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.

Nik

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on January 31, 2023, 02:33:52 PMHonestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.

Yeah. Especially trades that aren't just about draft picks. Like I understand why a team being offered a 3rd might shop it around to see if they can get something objectively better like a 2nd but when it involves multiple prospects then shopping it around would involve trying to weigh differing scouts opinions on what could be very different packages and if you've got an offer on the table you already like(and have potentially already scouted) opening it up to other teams in the hopes they might offer prospects you marginally like more seems not all that important.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

iwas11in67

I'm not too familiar with Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty. What would the Leaf equivalent be?

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: iwas11in67 on January 31, 2023, 04:15:30 PMI'm not too familiar with Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty. What would the Leaf equivalent be?

Leafs don't really have a comparable for Beauvillier. He's a 25-year old former 28th overall pick who's kinda gone up and down in his career as a middle-6 winger. At this point it's arguable that he's not even really earning his $4.15mil AAV. He's almost an older and more expensive version of Kapanen when the Leafs dealt him away.

Raty was picked 52nd overall in 2021 but many thought he'd go in the 1st round. His progression as a prospect seems to be going fine but the ceiling there isn't exactly high. Some potential as a 2nd line guy but more realistically he's a 3C if all goes well. So probably Roni Hirvonen-ish (picked 59th overall '20) with less pre-draft hype.

bustaheims

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on January 31, 2023, 02:33:52 PMHonestly I do feel like that's kind of how deals generally go down. I think the idea that GM's go back and forth with multiple teams "shopping" deals and saying stuff like "this is what Team A is offering can you beat that" doesn't really happen.

For smaller deals, absolutely, but for larger deals where they're negotiating with multiple teams (which, from the sounds of things, they were), I have to believe teams typically give the other suitors an opportunity to up their offer if they're close in value to the one they like. Unless the Nucks were really targeting Raty, I don't see any reason they wouldn't have gone to the other teams to say "we're close with another team, this is what they're offering (without naming names). What's your best offer?" If they're in serious negotiations with teams, they should have already done their scouting work. It's not like they'd be starting from scratch.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: bustaheims on January 31, 2023, 05:01:19 PMFor smaller deals, absolutely, but for larger deals where they're negotiating with multiple teams (which, from the sounds of things, they were), I have to believe teams typically give the other suitors an opportunity to up their offer if they're close in value to the one they like. Unless the Nucks were really targeting Raty, I don't see any reason they wouldn't have gone to the other teams to say "we're close with another team, this is what they're offering (without naming names). What's your best offer?" If they're in serious negotiations with teams, they should have already done their scouting work. It's not like they'd be starting from scratch.

See I still think it's the other way around. For smaller deals that usually come about through the course of a few texts or e-mails it's easier to bounce offers around multiple deals until someone offers a high enough or multiple draft picks for a GM to pull the trigger.

But big deals like this happen a lot more organically and over multiple days or weeks or even months. If yesterday at the beginning of one of the many, many talks the two had regarding this deal Allvin set this return as his price and after 60 minutes of back and forth Lou eventually decided to meet his demand Allvin can't then just turn around and go "sweet can I put you on hold for 30 minutes while I face time Boston's GM". I'd imagine everyone around the league would agree that that kinda goes against the GM bro-code.

So if a GM out there is upset and thought that he could have beat this offer, instead of leaking that information he should have been more aggressive in his pursuit and not think he could sit on his best offer until 10 minutes prior to the deadline.