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Tkachuk traded to FLA for Huberdeau+

Started by CarltonTheBear, July 22, 2022, 11:17:27 PM

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Nik

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 22, 2022, 11:20:02 PM
Quote from: Joe on July 22, 2022, 11:19:19 PM
Why would Florida do this?

Some GMs do crazy things when they get swept in the playoffs.

You also wonder how much of it had to do with getting swept by Tampa Bay specifically. With their problems financially, to put together the team they did and then get absolutely blown out of the water by their rivals seems like the kind of thing that would prompt this kind of over-reaction where bringing back the same team just wouldn't be seen as an option. Between this and going with Maurice over Brunette, it sure seems like that playoff loss flipped some sort of switch.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

herman

#16
This is interesting. Calgary has options to pivot if their season does not meet expectations and they can recoup add more 1sts.

Florida adds some much needed star power, but at a pretty steep cost to their secondary depth. Their defense is very vulnerable now but they're capped out. Tkachuk is also due to regress to his mean (sans Gaudreau) so he might pumpkin out for a bit.

I can't see this as anything other than a win for the Leafs.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

wnc096

Quote from: Peter D. on July 23, 2022, 12:03:11 AM
I'd take Huberdeau alone over Tkachuk. And they get all those extra goodies in the loot bag. Absolutely love it for Calgary. Wow.

Double wow because these types of hockey moves are hardly ever seen these days.

I dunno...it'll cost you close to 10M to resign Huberdeau on the wrong side of 30.  I'd take Tkachuk

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Nik on July 23, 2022, 12:11:11 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 22, 2022, 11:20:02 PM
Some GMs do crazy things when they get swept in the playoffs.

You also wonder how much of it had to do with getting swept by Tampa Bay specifically. With their problems financially, to put together the team they did and then get absolutely blown out of the water by their rivals seems like the kind of thing that would prompt this kind of over-reaction where bringing back the same team just wouldn't be seen as an option. Between this and going with Maurice over Brunette, it sure seems like that playoff loss flipped some sort of switch.

I know there were some, probably unwarranted, grumblings about Weegar's play in the playoffs this year. Wouldn't be surprised if that played a role in his departure.

bustaheims

Short term, this is a huge win for Calgary.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Joe

Since March of this year, Florida has traded:

2023 1st round pick
2024 1st round pick
2025 1st round pick
2024 4th round pick
2023 3rd round pick
Tippet
Similanic
Huberdeau
Weegar
Schwindt

And have this to show for it

Tkachuk
Connor Bunnaman
2024 5th round pick
2025 4th round pick

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Joe on July 23, 2022, 09:36:01 AM
Since March of this year, Florida has traded:

2023 1st round pick
2024 1st round pick
2025 1st round pick
2024 4th round pick
2023 3rd round pick
Tippet
Similanic
Huberdeau
Weegar
Schwindt

And have this to show for it

Tkachuk
Connor Bunnaman
2024 5th round pick
2025 4th round pick
But Dubas is the only idiot GM in the league.

princedpw

Quote from: Nik on July 22, 2022, 11:28:31 PM
Quote from: Joe on July 22, 2022, 11:19:19 PM
Am I wrong in thinking that this is an insanely lopsided trade in Calgary's favour?

Why would Florida do this?

Maybe I'm crazy but I kind of see it the opposite way. In exchange for a 25 year old coming off a great season that they signed to a pretty reasonable 8 year extension, Florida gave up two pending UFA's who are both due substantial raises(Huberdeau's next deal, in particular, might be 10+ million a year starting in his age 30 season), a mid tier prospect and a pick that figures to be pretty low in the 1st round.

This only looks good for Calgary if you re-sign Huberdeau/Weegar and that costs...what? 15 million a season? More?

Contrast that with Florida where they get Tkachuk, who may already be better than Huberdeau, and have 5.5 million to replace Weegar who they reportedly wanted to move anyway.

From Calgary's perspective, they traded a pending UFA (X) who announced to the world he definitely wouldn't sign with them (reducing their trade leverage or at least not improving it) for 2 pending UFAs (Y, Z) who may sign with them, as well as a 1st rounder and a prospect. 

Now, they have options: they can try to sign Y, Z or they can try to turn around and trade them.  If they want to turn around and trade them, I'd expect they could get at least as much for them as I was expecting they'd get for X a week ago. 

If they want to just play out the season with Y, Z, I think Huberdeau alone is better than Tkachuk (though Tkachuk is much younger - I'd rather have Tkachuk for the next 8 years than Huberdeau).  Tkachuk looks a little overrated to me — he wasn't a ppg player before lining up next to gaudreau.

If they want to trade the new guys at the deadline, the haul will be huge.

Any way I look at it, Calgary seems much better off than before the trade.  Even if Huberdeau and Weegar both tell Calgary they won't resign, I think Calgary's better off than before they made the trade.

Of course, Florida might be better off too.  They might have lost talent this year but gained it in the following years, assuming they didn't want to (or knew they couldn't) resign the guys they traded.

princedpw

Quote from: Guilt Trip on July 23, 2022, 09:50:56 AM
Quote from: Joe on July 23, 2022, 09:36:01 AM
Since March of this year, Florida has traded:

2023 1st round pick
2024 1st round pick
2025 1st round pick
2024 4th round pick
2023 3rd round pick
Tippet
Similanic
Huberdeau
Weegar
Schwindt

And have this to show for it

Tkachuk
Connor Bunnaman
2024 5th round pick
2025 4th round pick
But Dubas is the only idiot GM in the league.

Yeah, that seems not good.

Nik

Quote from: princedpw on July 23, 2022, 10:11:29 AM
Any way I look at it, Calgary seems much better off than before the trade.  Even if Huberdeau and Weegar both tell Calgary they won't resign, I think Calgary's better off than before they made the trade.

Sure, if your basis for comparison is whether or not Calgary is in a better situation with Huberdeau and Weegar than with Tkachuk saying he definitely won't sign with them then I guess they're better.

That seems like a pretty misguided way to look at it though because just about any asset that will be around past next year would be better than having Tkachuk saying he's definitely leaving. The way to look at it from Calgary's perspective, I'd have thought, would have been by comparing the return they got from Florida to other returns they could have gotten from other teams, not to the prospect of sitting around and watching Tkachuk leave as a UFA.

And did they do ok in that sense? I suppose. We all agree that if they deal Huberdeau and Weegar at the deadline they could probably get solid returns. But given that the first they just got from Florida isn't until 2025, the ultimate return for Tkachuk could be four bottom of the first round picks, some not for a couple of years, which will probably mean very little to the team on the ice for 5-6 years or longer.

And if they re-sign Huberdeau/Weegar? Well, that would be a solid return hockey wise provided you're ok with giving Gaudreau a 7 year/70 million dollar contract or whatever at the age of 30.

So like I said, if you made me choose between Huberdeau and Weegar and actually having to pay them vs. some of the rumoured packages of younger players, prospects and picks that had been kicked about as possible returns for Tkachuk from, say, the Blues or Devils, I think Calgary may have been better off going in a different direction.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

herman

Quote from: herman on July 20, 2022, 03:59:27 PM
Pretty sure he's gone by the end of the month. Over and done with, so Calgary has the offseason to recover and manage expectations and start to integrate any new pieces that come from this move. A sign and trade at this point would probably net the best return (8 years, slightly lower AAV).
https://twitter.com/fan960steinberg/status/1550920142430695425
I did not realize the NHL eschewed this technique prior.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

Heroic Shrimp

If it should happen that neither Huberdeau nor Weegar sign an extension during the course of the season, Calgary has gotta be hoping for either a really good or really bad regular season. After how last season and this offseason have played out, imagine the Flames as a borderline playoff team deciding on whether or not to cash out on their impending UFAs. Certainly they should if that's how the season plays out, but most GMs don't have the guts to follow through.
Supersize my Freedom Fries

Heroic Shrimp

It's pretty crazy that 3 of the 2021-22 top 8 in NHL scoring are changing teams this offseason.

Anyway, for old time's sake:

https://twitter.com/jomboy_/status/1354474193975447557
Supersize my Freedom Fries

Heroic Shrimp

https://twitter.com/daviddwork/status/1550952612874358785

Any time you can trade a player who doesn't want to be there for a much older player on an expiring contract who also doesn't want to be there, you gotta pull the trigger.

Initially, I thought this trade was so lopsided in Calgary's favour, but I honestly don't feel that way anymore. Huberdeau will be 30 at the end of this season. A star 30-year-old looking for a big long contract isn't the greatest asset to have, other than as trade material. In the absence of this trade, Florida almost certainly wouldn't have traded him this year, they certainly wouldn't have traded him at the deadline, and they risked losing him for nothing/being cap-unable to re-sign him at the end of the year. They flipped him, with other assets, for a superstar player 5 years younger signed long term.

If Calgary extends Huberdeau with a big long contract, they probably regret it in a few years. And if they trade him by the deadline (Weegar, too), they're getting more futures, including late 1st round picks. Which is fine, but in the end, they will have traded a current young superstar for a small bucket of moderately valuable assets that may help the team in a handful of years.
Supersize my Freedom Fries