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Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]

Started by Joe, July 11, 2022, 10:21:30 AM

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bustaheims

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:32:33 AM
Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

5 years is way too long of a commitment for Campbell.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Nik

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:32:33 AM
Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?

I think the subtext there is the Leafs aren't particularly enthusiastic about locking their goaltending situation over the next 5 years to Campbell. Murray, whatever else about him, required a shorter commitment and a chance to re-evaluate next year with a potentially better market.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Andy

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:32:33 AM
Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

Murray either equals or bests Campbell in every underlying metric last year. HDSV%, ESSV%, Quality starts, Really Bad Starts, XGSV/60, all while playing on an inferior team behind a much inferior defense. Injury risks abound for both players. I get worrying about the cap hit or health concerns for Murray but I don't get pining for Campbell at 5x5.

Nik

Quote from: bustaheims on July 13, 2022, 11:34:08 AM
5 years is way too long of a commitment for Campbell.

Forget Campbell, how many goalies in the league would you really be enthused about making a 5 year commitment to? It may be the cost of doing business in some cases but I'd like to think that five year deals for goalies will become rarer and rarer unless they've got real solid credentials behind them.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

bustaheims

Quote from: Nik on July 13, 2022, 11:38:05 AM
Forget Campbell, how many goalies in the league would you really be enthused about making a 5 year commitment to? It may be the cost of doing business in some cases but I'd like to think that five year deals for goalies will become rarer and rarer unless they've got real solid credentials behind them.

True. I can probably count the guys I'd be comfortable with that term on one hand.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Bender

Quote from: Nik on July 13, 2022, 11:38:05 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 13, 2022, 11:34:08 AM
5 years is way too long of a commitment for Campbell.

Forget Campbell, how many goalies in the league would you really be enthused about making a 5 year commitment to? It may be the cost of doing business in some cases but I'd like to think that five year deals for goalies will become rarer and rarer unless they've got real solid credentials behind them.

And let's be real here, Campbell was pretty bad last year. I know people were saying he didn't cost us the series but I mean... it was still sub .900 goaltending in the playoffs. There's a lack of consistency for a guy over 30. Even a .905 like Murray could've advanced us.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Joe

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:32:33 AM
Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

Obviously yes. But 5x5 for Campbell is nuts. If I can see that then actual hockey professionals running the team can certainly see that.

Nik

Quote from: Bender on July 13, 2022, 11:40:41 AM
And let's be real here, Campbell was pretty bad last year. I know people were saying he didn't cost us the series but I mean... it was still sub .900 goaltending in the playoffs. There's a lack of consistency for a guy over 30. Even a .905 like Murray could've advanced us.

I feel like just based on what we've seen on him I'd have preferred Campbell/Samsonov to Murray/Samsonov if Campbell had come on a deal very similar to Murray(maybe 3/15 would be the max there) but the extent to which I'd feel on surer footing with the team's goaltending is pretty minimal. It's the difference between being "Well, I'm pretty sure that the team's goaltending won't be catastrophically awful next year" to where I am now which is genuinely having no idea how good they'll be in net. You could legitimately tell me they'll be top 5 next year in net or bottom 5 and neither would shock me.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

gunnar36

Quote from: bustaheims on July 13, 2022, 11:34:08 AM
Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:32:33 AM
Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

5 years is way too long of a commitment for Campbell.

Yeah i guess that makes sense if you truly dont believe in your goalie to make that commitment.  Campbell will be in his prime for most of that contract, it is a risk for sure but could pay off for Oilers.

Bender

Quote from: Nik on July 13, 2022, 11:46:37 AM
Quote from: Bender on July 13, 2022, 11:40:41 AM
And let's be real here, Campbell was pretty bad last year. I know people were saying he didn't cost us the series but I mean... it was still sub .900 goaltending in the playoffs. There's a lack of consistency for a guy over 30. Even a .905 like Murray could've advanced us.

I feel like just based on what we've seen on him I'd have preferred Campbell/Samsonov to Murray/Samsonov if Campbell had come on a deal very similar to Murray(maybe 3/15 would be the max there) but the extent to which I'd feel on surer footing with the team's goaltending is pretty minimal. It's the difference between being "Well, I'm pretty sure that the team's goaltending won't be catastrophically awful next year" to where I am now which is genuinely having no idea how good they'll be in net. You could legitimately tell me they'll be top 5 next year in net or bottom 5 and neither would shock me.

That's true, but I think my point is people are freaking out that we got Murray for almost the same cost as Jack and that Murray isn't good and Jack hasn't been that bad. Last year he did the team nearly no favours at all, so it's kind of a crapshoot. I'd take Jack back for 2yrs but not at 5, and if he's somewhat interchangeable with Murray who carries only a 2yr commitment (and is younger) then who cares.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

bustaheims

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:52:08 AM
Yeah i guess that makes sense if you truly dont believe in your goalie to make that commitment.  Campbell will be in his prime for most of that contract, it is a risk for sure but could pay off for Oilers.

He's already 30. He'll be in his prime for the first couple years, maybe - and, if his performance this past season is indicative of his prime, he's not going to live up to that deal.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Nik

Quote from: gunnar36 on July 13, 2022, 11:52:08 AM
Campbell will be in his prime for most of that contract, it is a risk for sure but could pay off for Oilers.

The Oilers have enough firepower that even getting mid-range goaltending could see them have some serious success. The Leafs aren't really there.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Peter D.

I think we really need to temper the "Murray has two Cups to his name" narrative.  That was 5+ years ago.  It means squat now, save for the fact that we know what his potential can be.

Cam Ward won a Cup and Stanley Cup in the same way Murray did, and he put up nothing more than an average career after that when he was expected to be the next big thing in net.

I'm simply hopeful that his issues from last season and the ones prior are behind him and that he can provide at least some competent goaltending, all the while remaining healthy.

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Peter D. on July 13, 2022, 01:05:39 PM
I think we really need to temper the "Murray has two Cups to his name" narrative.

I only scanned things really quickly but not including this one I could only find 4 posts in these 10 pages that even reference Murray having won a Cup (and 2 of them were from you). I don't think that's a narrative that's all that large.

Nik

Quote from: Peter D. on July 13, 2022, 01:05:39 PMIt means squat now, save for the fact that we know what his potential can be.

I don't know that I've seen anyone reference those cups to mean anything other than that. It may seem like not much but this is a fanbase that seems pretty convinced that a lot of why the team hasn't succeeded in the playoffs is because some guys on the team simply do not have the mental make-up to succeed when the pressure is on. That you're bringing in a goalie who has conclusively proven otherwise seems relevant to that even if, as again I don't think I've seen anyone claim, it means much about how he'll hold up next year.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi