2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Arn]

I'd give him a 10 year contract now.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I'd give him a 10 year contract now.

Likewise, the jobs his until he doesn't want it anymore.

He'd be unemployed for a few days at most if he left the Leafs, there are multiple teams that would fire their current GM just to hire Dubas.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

I have to say, I'm pretty baffled by all this unconditional love for Dubas.  You make it sound like he's irreplaceable.  That's just silly.

Are you satisfied with an endless number of R1 exits?  If you're OK with that, then sure, give him (of anyone) an open-ended job.  (Don't think this would fly in business school, though).

If you're not OK with that, then the argument reduces to how many chances are you willing to give him?  I say this should be his last, and I further think there's nothing unreasonable in saying that.

[Guilt Trip]

I have to say, I'm pretty baffled by all this unconditional love for Dubas.  You make it sound like he's irreplaceable.  That's just silly.

Are you satisfied with an endless number of R1 exits?  If you're OK with that, then sure, give him (of anyone) an open-ended job.  (Don't think this would fly in business school, though).

If you're not OK with that, then the argument reduces to how many chances are you willing to give him?  I say this should be his last, and I further think there's nothing unreasonable in saying that.

The losses are on the players, not the GM. This is one of the best Leads teams I've ever had they pleasure of watching.

[Arn]

I have to say, I'm pretty baffled by all this unconditional love for Dubas.  You make it sound like he's irreplaceable.  That's just silly.

Are you satisfied with an endless number of R1 exits?  If you're OK with that, then sure, give him (of anyone) an open-ended job.  (Don't think this would fly in business school, though).

If you're not OK with that, then the argument reduces to how many chances are you willing to give him?  I say this should be his last, and I further think there's nothing unreasonable in saying that.

Because I think, overall, Dubas is doing his job of putting the team in a position to win. And it's proving that with the records they're putting up over an extended body of work in the regular season. They're also extremely fun to watch.

When it comes to playoff success I still think he's put them in the position to win. Obviously I'm not satisfied with losing, but I am satisfied with the process and progress.

They just haven't yet won a first round for various reasons. These reasons some might want to call excuses. But I think there's validity in most of them. I feel like Dubas has allowed himself to evolve and the team has been getting better in those situations pretty much year on year. Last year was literally a bounce away from beting the 2 time back to back champions. They put themselves in a place to win - from the GM down to the players. Tearing it all up isn't going to change that.

Imagine if this year it's the Lightning and it's 3 games each. And Matthews and Nylander and Murray are out injured for game 7. And there's a missed call that leads to the game winning goal in OT of game 7 for the Lightning. How do you pin that on Dubas? Are you still not giving him a new contract for not getting past the first round? Are you ready to tear it all down and start again?

Sometimes you don't know what you have til it's gone and sometimes change for the sake of change is the wrong path.

[herman]

I have to say, I'm pretty baffled by all this unconditional love for Dubas.  You make it sound like he's irreplaceable.  That's just silly.

Are you satisfied with an endless number of R1 exits?  If you're OK with that, then sure, give him (of anyone) an open-ended job.  (Don't think this would fly in business school, though).

If you're not OK with that, then the argument reduces to how many chances are you willing to give him?  I say this should be his last, and I further think there's nothing unreasonable in saying that.

I don't think anyone here is showing unconditional love; they are just reading the situation and circumstances differently.

[herman]

Because I think, overall, Dubas is doing his job of putting the team in a position to win. And it's proving that with the records they're putting up over an extended body of work in the regular season. They're also extremely fun to watch.

When it comes to playoff success I still think he's put them in the position to win. Obviously I'm not satisfied with losing, but I am satisfied with the process and progress.

I think this sums it up succinctly.

[Bill_Berg_is_less_sad]

Ya I just don't pin the R1 losses on Dubas. Also, he's made mistakes, but he's corrected them fairly well and he's only going to get better as a GM.

[Nik]

I'm generally speaking more pro-Dubas than I am anti-Dubas but I think maybe this is something where I think a slightly broader view is needed. I don't think not extending him would necessarily amount to "blaming" him for the playoff exits so much as it is a recognition that where his judgement has typically faltered a bit, in my eyes, has been with looking at the team mid-season and trying to judge how best to position the team to make a deep playoff run. That's been the source of some of his worst moves. Likewise, while it's fair to say that most of these playoff series could have gone the other way with a bit of luck, that's both a positive and negative as they haven't turned in any real stinkers but they also haven't come out and just whooped teams despite having a few series' where they were probably the better team.

But maybe even more than that I think Shanahan will need to look at what the job ahead is going to be and what Dubas' plan to address that. Because while I think there's some merit to the idea that Dubas has done a good job in putting the team in a solid position year after year and, given the randomness of the playoffs, there's not much more to be done I also think that there's probably a point at which repeated first round exits weighs on players and makes the next big challenge, re-signing Mathews et al, more difficult. The next phase of Dubas' job, win in the playoffs or not, will represent a different challenge than what he's faced so far and one where his track record is, I think it's safe to say, pretty middle-ground.

Ultimately though I'm not super-convinced it would be a catastrophe either way. I think Dubas is a smart guy and does a relatively good job but if he were replaced I'm not overly worried that Shanahan would go out and get Brian Burke 2.0 either.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

All of your comments are good and Arn and Nik, thanks for taking the time to go in depth.

I just think at the end of the day this team is way too good to keep losing in the first round, especially when they have had the chance to close out teams on home ice.  Is that Dubas's fault?  Not entirely, of course.  Could somebody else have done better?  Who knows, but one glaring fault that hasn't been corrected is that the team's glaring faults haven't been corrected in the playoffs (PP failures, sticking with line combos too long).  That's on the coaches more than anyone, but it's a management issue and Dubas is responsible.

Sooner or later, somebody needs to held accountable for what, I hope you'll all agree, is a woeful record in the playoffs (regardless of their effort or "luck").  Sooner or later, to be considered successful you have to go deep.  My line remains the same: R1W or bust for Dubas (which would, of course, apply to the coaching staff too, in all likelihood).

[Arn]

but one glaring fault that hasn't been corrected is that the team's glaring faults haven't been corrected in the playoffs (PP failures, sticking with line combos too long).  That's on the coaches more than anyone, but it's a management issue and Dubas is responsible.


Sooner or later, somebody needs to held accountable for what, I hope you'll all agree, is a woeful record in the playoffs (regardless of their effort or "luck").  Sooner or later, to be considered successful you have to go deep.  My line remains the same: R1W or bust for Dubas (which would, of course, apply to the coaching staff too, in all likelihood).

This is an interesting point that I hadn't really considered. Dubas came in and had Babcock who wasn't "his" coach. Eventually, and probably about the right time, he moved Babcock out and got his own coach in Keefe.

I'd agree that a lot of the issues have been around usage of players - being too reliant on Marner/Matthews last year then not having them had reps with mothers so unable to change.

Keefe, of course, is learning on the job and is probably a couple of years behind Dubas in terms of experience and evolution. Perhaps Dubas needs to be a little more hands on in directing him. Is that possibly a "failing". I dunno.

I wonder if this year could be the last chance for Keefe, and then Dubas gets another chance to change coach before the buck ultimately moves on up to Dubas? As you say the team is too good to lose in the first round. Dubas has built that team. Keefe, the coaches and players are responsible for the execution so I think they're expendable before Dubas.


I fully get where you're coming from with your opinion and I don't think it's a wildly out there position to take in any way, despite not agreeing.

[Significantly Insignificant]

I'd agree that a lot of the issues have been around usage of players - being too reliant on Marner/Matthews last year then not having them had reps with mothers so unable to change.

So then this year Marner and Matthews are getting reps with mothers?  I really want you to go in depth into this. 

[Bill33]

Likewise, while it's fair to say that most of these playoff series could have gone the other way with a bit of luck, that's both a positive and negative as they haven't turned in any real stinkers

I think the MTL series definitely qualifies as a "stinker", up there for the worst in franchise history. If there was was going to be any senior management housecleaning, I think the result of that series would have been a fair pretext.

But certainly the regular season and Tampa series was redeeming - the leafs were a top team through the season, and barely got beaten by another top team. These things happen. The series was a coin flip, and it'll be a coin flip again this year the way things are shaping up.

I think one thing that gets overlooked is how well Dubas has managed the cap situation since the big 4 got their deals. When they were signed, it was done with the understanding that the cap would go up, and those deals would allow for more roster flexibility. No one could have predicted the flat cap era, and I'm hard pressed to think of any team in the league that was more impacted than toronto - but Dubas made it work, and still continues to this season. I think he deserves a lot of credit in that regard. 

I'd be happy if they extended him at any point, but it would appear that it won't happen without some form of playoff success, else it would have happened already, I'm guessing.

[Nik]

I think the MTL series definitely qualifies as a "stinker", up there for the worst in franchise history. If there was was going to be any senior management housecleaning, I think the result of that series would have been a fair pretext.

Obviously the results there were disappointing but I don't really agree. When I say a stinker I mean going out and getting their butts kicked and losing in 4 or 5 games. A series where they dominated play for most of it and came very close to winning in 5 games doesn't qualify.

I think one thing that gets overlooked is how well Dubas has managed the cap situation since the big 4 got their deals. When they were signed, it was done with the understanding that the cap would go up, and those deals would allow for more roster flexibility. No one could have predicted the flat cap era, and I'm hard pressed to think of any team in the league that was more impacted than toronto - but Dubas made it work, and still continues to this season. I think he deserves a lot of credit in that regard.   

I don't agree here either. One, it was always risky to sign Tavares without knowing what the cap would do going forward. Predicting non-stop major growth probably wasn't realistic. Moreover the Leafs issues were exacerbated by the reality, and I've defended Dubas as much as anyone on this front, that the best you could credibly say about any of the Nylander-Matthews-Marner deals is that they were roughly fair market rates.

The cap situation may have been well managed but it was still very much a situation of Dubas' making. And I think the charitable thing to say about the Tavares signing is that it's a move that hasn't yet yielded the desired results.

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1615084266840285184

Robertson done for the season.

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/1615061968284684290

The 2 week mark would be this upcoming Saturday.