Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

[Frank E]

MLHS up with an "all-in" article.  Pretty convincing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/23/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-2023-trade-deadline/

Look, I'm a proponent adding a big piece given they accrued some space and the East is a dogfight...but I don't think too many articles get read which suggest that the Leafs stand pat, cross their fingers, and hope for the best.

Not doing anything of substance and just adding Knies is a lot of pressure to put on the kid, but maybe it's what's best for the team's averaged out chances over the next couple of seasons?

Is there even a middle ground though that is defensible at a press conference Dubas takes after a first round exit?

[Nik]

MLHS up with an "all-in" article.  Pretty convincing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/23/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-2023-trade-deadline/

I think the comparison to the Avs actually sort of highlights where I'm coming from. Last year, in their pursuit of a cup, the Avs dealt away effectively their entire draft. They did that, in part, because they didn't need a significant talent injection into their farm system. I really think it's important people understand just how stark the contrast is. In the four years prior to last years draft the Avs had these top 100 picks in the draft:

4, 16, 16, 25, 28, 47, 61, 63, 64, 75, 78, 92, 94

By contrast if the Leafs trade away their top picks in this year's draft over the last four years the Leafs top 100 picks are:

15, 38, 53, 57, 59, 64, 84, 95

And, while of course through no fault of the team's, that 15th overall pick is effectively not in the system(Get well soon Rodion!). So right now the top Leafs pick of the last four years would be the 6th highest pick in Colorado's four year pre-cup run in addition to having only barely more than half as many top 100 picks as the Avs had in that time. The gulf between the Leafs and Tampa in similar spans isn't quite as wide but it's there as well.

This isn't a "The Leafs shouldn't spend" position. This is a "At some point the Leafs have to stop spending" position. 

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

MLHS up with an "all-in" article.  Pretty convincing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/23/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-2023-trade-deadline/

I think the comparison to the Avs actually sort of highlights where I'm coming from. Last year, in their pursuit of a cup, the Avs dealt away effectively their entire draft. They did that, in part, because they didn't need a significant talent injection into their farm system. I really think it's important people understand just how stark the contrast is. In the four years prior to last years draft the Avs had these top 100 picks in the draft:

4, 16, 16, 25, 28, 47, 61, 63, 64, 75, 78, 92, 94

By contrast if the Leafs trade away their top picks in this year's draft over the last four years the Leafs top 100 picks are:

15, 38, 53, 57, 59, 64, 84, 95

And, while of course through no fault of the team's, that 15th overall pick is effectively not in the system(Get well soon Rodion!). So right now the top Leafs pick of the last four years would be the 6th highest pick in Colorado's four year pre-cup run in addition to having only barely more than half as many top 100 picks as the Avs had in that time. The gulf between the Leafs and Tampa in similar spans isn't quite as wide but it's there as well.

This isn't a "The Leafs shouldn't spend" position. This is a "At some point the Leafs have to stop spending" position. 

Pretty convincing.

[Arn]

So what can we do to get Karlsson then?

[Significantly Insignificant]

So what can we do to get Karlsson then?

The Leafs could just buy the Sharks organization.

[L K]

Agreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.

[Guilt Trip]

Agreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.

Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

[herman]

https://twitter.com/leafsnews/status/1618774428988440576

[Bender]

Agreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.

Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

Seems expensive for Kerfoot like production, no?

[Guilt Trip]

Agreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.

Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

Seems expensive for Kerfoot like production, no?

I think he's just coming into his own. Including this season, Crouse has scored 36 goals... Kerfoot has 20. Crouse may get 30 this season. 

[Bill33]

Agreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.

Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

Seems expensive for Kerfoot like production, no?

I think he's just coming into his own. Including this season, Crouse has scored 36 goals... Kerfoot has 20. Crouse may get 30 this season. 

Beware the good players on bad teams, imo. Also, Kerfoot is playing bottom six a lot, making comparisons tough.

[RedLeaf]

I think the Leafs greatest need for a playoff run is a few more 'punishing' players. I'd say at least 1 more up front and 1 more on the back end.

They're on a collision course with Tampa and then (hopefully) Boston. They need a little more edge to their team for those matchups.

Maybe Knies is the answer up front. Hard to say without seeing at least a sneak peak. If they believe he can fit that need then I'd bet Dubas goes for a D-man with a little bite that can essentially replace Muzzin. Should be interesting to watch as we approach the deadline .

[Dappleganger]

Anyone interested in the Leafs acquiring Lawson Crouse, I'd suggest taking a look at Scott Laughton from Philadelphia. Laughton is signed for another 3 years at $3m per.

[Highlander]

I think the Leafs greatest need for a playoff run is a few more 'punishing' players. I'd say at least 1 more up front and 1 more on the back end.

They're on a collision course with Tampa and then (hopefully) Boston. They need a little more edge to their team for those matchups.

Maybe Knies is the answer up front. Hard to say without seeing at least a sneak peak. If they believe he can fit that need then I'd bet Dubas goes for a D-man with a little bite that can essentially replace Muzzin. Should be interesting to watch as we approach the deadline .

I saw Knies in a recent game and was not impressed, however if its possible throw him on the fire and see if he can cut it, if not off to the Marlies for a while to learn the systems.

[Guilt Trip]

Anyone interested in the Leafs acquiring Lawson Crouse, I'd suggest taking a Look at Scott Laughton from Philadelphia. Laughton is signed for another 3 years at $3m per.

Would like Crouse with retention. Laughton is interesting because he's having a career year this season but previously had never scored more then 12 goals. Don't know if I see him as a 2LW.