Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

[bustaheims]

So... Lafreniere

As a 1st overall...not good. Not going to be worth the ask.

He is a depressed asset. I don't think it will cost that much.

Also:
https://twitter.com/StLouisBlues/status/1609927515451101187
That's going to put a spanner into their deadline plans (and maybe ours)

Should both be back by mid to late February. As long as they get into a couple games, they'll go for full value.

[herman]

https://twitter.com/brockotten/status/1611804244121714689
The Dubas Signal

[Dappleganger]

Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + '23 1st for Kane + Toews (50% retained)

Who says no?

Chicago flips Kerfoot to Colorado for a 3rd.
 

[bustaheims]

Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + '23 1st for Kane + Toews (50% retained)

Who says no?

Chicago flips Kerfoot to Colorado for a 3rd.
 

The Leafs. And the salary cap.

[Dappleganger]

Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + '23 1st for Kane + Toews (50% retained)

Who says no?

Chicago flips Kerfoot to Colorado for a 3rd.
 

The Leafs. And the salary cap.

Salary cap will be close with Muzzin's LTIR space but I don't know how exactly that calculates. :)

[Guilt Trip]

Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + '23 1st for Kane + Toews (50% retained)

Who says no?

Chicago flips Kerfoot to Colorado for a 3rd.
 

You're giving up a potential top 4 D and top 6 winger for rentals that aren't really having good years. Hard pass from me.

[Guilt Trip]

Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + '23 1st for Kane + Toews (50% retained)

Who says no?

Chicago flips Kerfoot to Colorado for a 3rd.
 

The Leafs. And the salary cap.

Salary cap will be close with Muzzin's LTIR space but I don't know how exactly that calculates. :)

Salary cap isn't close. We'd be over by almost 2M with a 20 man roster. You would also have to put one of our D (Timmins, Benn) on waivers and no one is clearing. You'd have to do a dbl retention with at least one, or both Toews/Kane to get close Muzz's cap hit.

[Dappleganger]

Sandin + Robertson + Kerfoot + '23 1st for Kane + Toews (50% retained)

Who says no?

Chicago flips Kerfoot to Colorado for a 3rd.
 

The Leafs. And the salary cap.

Salary cap will be close with Muzzin's LTIR space but I don't know how exactly that calculates. :)

Salary cap isn't close. We'd be over by almost 2M with a 20 man roster. You would also have to put one of our D (Timmins, Benn) on waivers and no one is clearing. You'd have to do a dbl retention with at least one, or both Toews/Kane to get close Muzz's cap hit.

Ok, do a double retention on Toews.

My only point is the Leafs could find a way to make the numbers work.

Lose Engvall or Holl and free up more cap space.


Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Toews - Nylander
ZAR - Kampf - Holmberg

Rielly - Brodie
Benn - Liljegren
Gio - Timmins

[bustaheims]

Still giving up too big a chunk of the future for rentals. Kane is a nice piece, but the Leafs need help on LW not RW. Toews would be a good add, but there are cheaper alternatives that would slot in nicely at 3C.

Also, as I've said before, teams that win the Cup are typically not the teams that make these big swings at the deadline. There's too many moving pieces required to integrate big minute guys into the lineup. The Leafs' focus should be on added role players, depth pieces, etc. If they need to make that big swing, it's already too late.

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm at a point where if Nick Robertson got us a really good top-6 winger or a solid 2nd line centre I'd likely be willing to part with him to get it done (off the top of my head players like Tarasenko, Bertuzzi, Toews, Kuzmenko maybe).

Would I add our 1st rounder in order to get into the upper tier of rentals like Kane/Horvat/ROR? I guess that depends on where we're when it comes to trade time. If our goaltenders continue to be all over the place or worse then I'm not sure I take the chance. If they're reliable or better then I could be tempted to go for it.

so Robertson for Toews? Maybe. Robertson+1st+Kerfoot/3rd for Kane? Tempting. Adding Sandin to the mix to get both is where it gets dicey. I'm not even completely opposed to moving him, but it'd have to be for a really good player that we get 2 playoff runs out of.

[RedLeaf]

I'm just gonna throw this out there for ridicule.

But what about a deadline deal with the SJS.. Morgan Rielly for Erik Karlsson?

[Guilt Trip]

I'm just gonna throw this out there for ridicule.

But what about a deadline deal with the SJS.. Morgan Rielly for Erik Karlsson?

EK65 is 33 in May and has 4 more years at 11.5M. Unless SJ is eating 4M of that contract, it's a huge pass. Since going to the Sharks he's only played close to a full season during the covid year. Missing on average close to 30 games per in the others up to this season, there are some huge flags. Both also have NMC so they'd have to agree.

[Peter D.]

I'm at a point where if Nick Robertson got us a really good top-6 winger or a solid 2nd line centre I'd likely be willing to part with him to get it done (off the top of my head players like Tarasenko, Bertuzzi, Toews, Kuzmenko maybe).

Would I add our 1st rounder in order to get into the upper tier of rentals like Kane/Horvat/ROR? I guess that depends on where we're when it comes to trade time. If our goaltenders continue to be all over the place or worse then I'm not sure I take the chance. If they're reliable or better then I could be tempted to go for it.

so Robertson for Toews? Maybe. Robertson+1st+Kerfoot/3rd for Kane? Tempting. Adding Sandin to the mix to get both is where it gets dicey. I'm not even completely opposed to moving him, but it'd have to be for a really good player that we get 2 playoff runs out of.

Does Robertson have that much value these days to get a piece like that?  Not sure an oft-injured, depreciated, albeit young, asset, will hold that much value.

Robertson for Toews seems like a reasonable deal, however.  Toews is nothing like what he was.  And personally, I absolutely loathe him, so I don't want to see him as a Leaf.  But it does seem like a deal that'd make sense for both sides.

[CarltonTheBear]

Does Robertson have that much value these days to get a piece like that?  Not sure an oft-injured, depreciated, albeit young, asset, will hold that much value.

Robertson for Toews seems like a reasonable deal, however.  Toews is nothing like what he was.  And personally, I absolutely loathe him, so I don't want to see him as a Leaf.  But it does seem like a deal that'd make sense for both sides.

Well in my defence I wrote that when it looked like he'd be back playing within a few weeks. His season ending injury pretty much kills his trade value for the time being.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

MLHS has an article on Leafs' rumored interest in CBJ defenseman Gavrikov:

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/22/report-maple-leafs-interested-in-columbus-defenseman-vladislav-gavrikov/

and their gameday for last night's game has this:

10.   Elliotte Friedman linked Vladislav Gavrikov to the Leafs (and Oilers) at the second intermission of HNIC. It's a move that makes some sense to me provided there are some assurances around a contract extension, and reportedly, Jarmko Kekäläinen is permitting interested teams to talk about a contract with Gavrikov.

If you're projecting out the Leafs' defense for the next 18 months, Jake Muzzin seems unlikely to return at this point, although we're nearing the time when we are supposed to receive a more concrete update on his status (expected sometime in February). Justin Holl is currently a pending UFA. TJ Brodie will be 33 next season and playing the final year of his contract. Mark Giordano will be 40 and playing in the final year of his.

It makes sense to me that the Leafs are proactively exploring the market for a prime-aged defenseman (Gavrikov is 27) who can handle tough minutes inside the top four.  If they could add one to aid with the 2023 playoff run in the process, it would certainly better set them up to take on opposition with the star power and depth of Boston and Tampa.

At $2.8 million, Gavrikov is not too difficult to fit under the cap, especially if the Leafs could convince Columbus to hold onto a little bit of money for the rest of the season. I also don't necessarily see it as an either-or thing with a defenseman versus a forward. Muzzin (presumably) remaining on LTIR gives the Leafs some space, and they should be creative with retention. They have 12 picks in the next two drafts — including both first-rounders — as well as some coveted prospects.

Thoughts?  Sounds intriguing to me and I think Dubas will burn a 1st to try to get the team past R1.