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Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

Started by CarltonTheBear, May 16, 2022, 10:37:25 AM

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Frank E

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 23, 2023, 03:25:06 PMMLHS up with an "all-in" article.  Pretty convincing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/23/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-2023-trade-deadline/

Look, I'm a proponent adding a big piece given they accrued some space and the East is a dogfight...but I don't think too many articles get read which suggest that the Leafs stand pat, cross their fingers, and hope for the best.

Not doing anything of substance and just adding Knies is a lot of pressure to put on the kid, but maybe it's what's best for the team's averaged out chances over the next couple of seasons?

Is there even a middle ground though that is defensible at a press conference Dubas takes after a first round exit?

Nik

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 23, 2023, 03:25:06 PMMLHS up with an "all-in" article.  Pretty convincing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/23/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-2023-trade-deadline/

I think the comparison to the Avs actually sort of highlights where I'm coming from. Last year, in their pursuit of a cup, the Avs dealt away effectively their entire draft. They did that, in part, because they didn't need a significant talent injection into their farm system. I really think it's important people understand just how stark the contrast is. In the four years prior to last years draft the Avs had these top 100 picks in the draft:

4, 16, 16, 25, 28, 47, 61, 63, 64, 75, 78, 92, 94

By contrast if the Leafs trade away their top picks in this year's draft over the last four years the Leafs top 100 picks are:

15, 38, 53, 57, 59, 64, 84, 95

And, while of course through no fault of the team's, that 15th overall pick is effectively not in the system(Get well soon Rodion!). So right now the top Leafs pick of the last four years would be the 6th highest pick in Colorado's four year pre-cup run in addition to having only barely more than half as many top 100 picks as the Avs had in that time. The gulf between the Leafs and Tampa in similar spans isn't quite as wide but it's there as well.

This isn't a "The Leafs shouldn't spend" position. This is a "At some point the Leafs have to stop spending" position. 
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: Nik on January 23, 2023, 06:37:57 PM
Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 23, 2023, 03:25:06 PMMLHS up with an "all-in" article.  Pretty convincing.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2023/01/23/toronto-maple-leafs-notebook-2023-trade-deadline/

I think the comparison to the Avs actually sort of highlights where I'm coming from. Last year, in their pursuit of a cup, the Avs dealt away effectively their entire draft. They did that, in part, because they didn't need a significant talent injection into their farm system. I really think it's important people understand just how stark the contrast is. In the four years prior to last years draft the Avs had these top 100 picks in the draft:

4, 16, 16, 25, 28, 47, 61, 63, 64, 75, 78, 92, 94

By contrast if the Leafs trade away their top picks in this year's draft over the last four years the Leafs top 100 picks are:

15, 38, 53, 57, 59, 64, 84, 95

And, while of course through no fault of the team's, that 15th overall pick is effectively not in the system(Get well soon Rodion!). So right now the top Leafs pick of the last four years would be the 6th highest pick in Colorado's four year pre-cup run in addition to having only barely more than half as many top 100 picks as the Avs had in that time. The gulf between the Leafs and Tampa in similar spans isn't quite as wide but it's there as well.

This isn't a "The Leafs shouldn't spend" position. This is a "At some point the Leafs have to stop spending" position. 

Pretty convincing.

Arn

So what can we do to get Karlsson then?
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Significantly Insignificant

Quote from: Arn on January 25, 2023, 03:21:29 PMSo what can we do to get Karlsson then?

The Leafs could just buy the Sharks organization.
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

L K

Agreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.

Guilt Trip

Quote from: L K on January 26, 2023, 01:10:17 PMAgreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.
Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

herman

"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

Bender

Quote from: Guilt Trip on January 26, 2023, 02:37:49 PM
Quote from: L K on January 26, 2023, 01:10:17 PMAgreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.
Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

Seems expensive for Kerfoot like production, no?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Bender on January 27, 2023, 04:10:56 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on January 26, 2023, 02:37:49 PM
Quote from: L K on January 26, 2023, 01:10:17 PMAgreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.
Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

Seems expensive for Kerfoot like production, no?
I think he's just coming into his own. Including this season, Crouse has scored 36 goals... Kerfoot has 20. Crouse may get 30 this season. 

Bill33

Quote from: Guilt Trip on January 27, 2023, 11:05:48 AM
Quote from: Bender on January 27, 2023, 04:10:56 AM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on January 26, 2023, 02:37:49 PM
Quote from: L K on January 26, 2023, 01:10:17 PMAgreed on the spending.  We can certainly do it but it needs to be done smartly.  I liked the Giordano trade last year.  It was three of those top 100 draft picks but we got Gio and Blackwell and turned around and signed Gio to an extension.

If we use a 1st round pick package to get Timo Meier we probably can't afford him next year but we could at least recoup assets trading him in the offseason as an RFA.  I'd rather see use acquire Brendan Hagel type players rather than Nick Foligno rentals.

It hasn't helped that most of our deadline deals have kind of stunk.  It hasn't helped that most of these guys haven't really pushed the needle in a forward direction.
Lawson Crouse is the guy I want the Leafs to get. Signed for 4 more years at 4.3 I think he'd be a good fit for the 2nd line.

Seems expensive for Kerfoot like production, no?
I think he's just coming into his own. Including this season, Crouse has scored 36 goals... Kerfoot has 20. Crouse may get 30 this season. 

Beware the good players on bad teams, imo. Also, Kerfoot is playing bottom six a lot, making comparisons tough.