Armchair GM Thread 2022-2023

[herman]

KEEP
Matthews - Easy decision
Marner - Last year, I'd say his 11M could be split between 2 top-6 wingers, but he is still more valuable to this team than on the market, especially if he can be paired with Tavares to upgrade that line once again.
Nylander - incredible value for the cap hit, still has clear room for improvement; can carry a lower line or add every offensive element to a top line; PP wizard in every conceivable role.
Tavares - NMC; he's a sunk cost, so the key here is to bolster his weakness (skating speed) so we can leverage his strengths more consistently (puck control, shooting, space making)
Bunting - Easy decision
Kampf - Palatable contract for a steadying presence and reliable toolkit
Kase - injury concerns will keep him very affordable; gotta keep him with his Czechmate
Engvall - he started to show more snarl; let's practice that for the full season because he has the build and speed to tilt his minutes


Rielly - Similar to Tavares, there are some very rare strengths to Rielly's game, but we need to mitigate his weakness (rush defense)
Brodie - Speaking of mitigating weaknesses on D, this guy
Sandin - Still rounding out his game; can crush 3rd pair min, but can he tread water or truly swim with top-4 min?
Liljegren - he looks more and more like Luigi with every passing day, and as the second guy on a top-4 pair, he is doing just fine. Experience will help with anticipation and speed up decision making that way.
Giordano - If he can take a cheapo deal, we can easily make 3 top-4 pairs and extend the longevity of
Muzzin - still so solid in his play, even if his hips, knees, and back are not quite holding up. Take it easy on him in the regular season and save him for the playoffs.


TOSS
- Mikheyev (UFA) is going to price himself out of our roster; I like what he does (PK, zoom zoom) but the tenacity on the puck hardly ever translates to scoring for himself or his linemates in a sustainable way
- Kerfoot (1 year, 3.5M) is also a valuable member of the team as a utility player, but we could easily use this cap hit for 3 Marlies grads to get similar production.
- Clifford - I don't see it; make room for Marlies


MAYBE
Campbell - $ or $$$$?
Mrazek - what's on the market? I think he'd be a serviceable backup 1/B still, just rotten injury luck this past year
Holl - I like him fine, but if there's an improvement to be made, his handedness, TOI, and cap hit has market value
Spezza - as an assistant coach; his voice of experience is valuable, moreso than his diminishing on-ice contributions; if we have the cap room and he doesn't mind sitting half the season, then sign him as usual.
Simmonds - ditto

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

If they can bring back Giordano I'd move on from Brodie and Muzzin.  Both are declining IMO.  It's a gamble but I think Sandin and Liljegren are top 4 guys.

I agree with Mikheyev.  Like his game but, like Kapi, it never quite delivers the scoring you want.  He didn't do anything in the playoffs.  For partly that reason we lost the Bottom 6 matchup, and ultimately the series.

Also on a side note Bunting didn't do any better than the maligned Hyman.  That was disappointing.

[CarltonTheBear]

If they can bring back Giordano I'd move on from Brodie and Muzzin.  Both are declining IMO.  It's a gamble but I think Sandin and Liljegren are top 4 guys.

If we're bringing Giordano back then at that point, in a bit of a twist, we'll just have too much money invested into our defence and someone will have to go to put some money into a middle-6 forward and/or goaltending. Muzzin is the more logical choice for me since I think he'll have a tougher decline than Brodie (who I don't really think has shown much of that IMO) and at the same time he'll probably have more value to another team because of his style of play.

[CarltonTheBear]

Also on a side note Bunting didn't do any better than the maligned Hyman.  That was disappointing.

3 straight years where a supposed-to-be linemate of M&M went into the playoffs injured, right (Hyman -> Foligno+Hyman - > Bunting).

[Guilt Trip]

Also on a side note Bunting didn't do any better than the maligned Hyman.  That was disappointing.

3 straight years where a supposed-to-be linemate of M&M went into the playoffs injured, right (Hyman -> Foligno+Hyman - > Bunting).

Clearly Bunting was hurt but he still produced more then Hyman. No complaints from me.

[Frank E]

If they can bring back Giordano I'd move on from Brodie and Muzzin.  Both are declining IMO.  It's a gamble but I think Sandin and Liljegren are top 4 guys.

If we're bringing Giordano back then at that point, in a bit of a twist, we'll just have too much money invested into our defence and someone will have to go to put some money into a middle-6 forward and/or goaltending. Muzzin is the more logical choice for me since I think he'll have a tougher decline than Brodie (who I don't really think has shown much of that IMO) and at the same time he'll probably have more value to another team because of his style of play.

Yeah, I move Muzzin before Brodie.

[bustaheims]

Yeah, I move Muzzin before Brodie.

Yup. In fact, I don't move Brodie until we know we have a clear replacement for the right side of the D. I'd like to see him back with Rielly full time. I'd set the D like this going into next season (barring any major moves, of course):

Rielly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin-Holl

[CarltonTheBear]

Yup. In fact, I don't move Brodie until we know we have a clear replacement for the right side of the D.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Brodie stay here even past his current contract in a slightly reduced role/AAV.

[L K]

Also on a side note Bunting didn't do any better than the maligned Hyman.  That was disappointing.

3 straight years where a supposed-to-be linemate of M&M went into the playoffs injured, right (Hyman -> Foligno+Hyman - > Bunting).

I'm going to give Bunting some slack for his injury. I know the team was handling injuries in a smarter way with the playoffs coming up but the first few games he didn't look to be as effective getting in on the forecheck. 

Yeah I would easily move Muzzin over Brodie.  I think Muzzin is still more important to the team WHEN 100% HEALTHY but that's just not a reliable state for him.  If his playoff performance lets a team acquire him for something I think that's a good sell opportunity to free up cap space/maybe get a lesser asset.

[Zee]

Also on a side note Bunting didn't do any better than the maligned Hyman.  That was disappointing.

3 straight years where a supposed-to-be linemate of M&M went into the playoffs injured, right (Hyman -> Foligno+Hyman - > Bunting).

I'm going to give Bunting some slack for his injury. I know the team was handling injuries in a smarter way with the playoffs coming up but the first few games he didn't look to be as effective getting in on the forecheck. 

Yeah I would easily move Muzzin over Brodie.  I think Muzzin is still more important to the team WHEN 100% HEALTHY but that's just not a reliable state for him.  If his playoff performance lets a team acquire him for something I think that's a good sell opportunity to free up cap space/maybe get a lesser asset.

Agreed.  I think the time to move on from Muzzin is now.  He had a decent playoff so I don't think it's too difficult to trade him given that other GMs covet experience and toughness.  Leafs could use that cap space.

[Bullfrog]

TOSS
- Kerfoot (1 year, 3.5M) is also a valuable member of the team as a utility player, but we could easily use this cap hit for 3 Marlies grads to get similar production.

I'm a bit confused by this one. You are not finding a Marlies grad to score 51 points while also being 3rd on the team in SH TOI for forwards. Robertson's got potential on the scoring side I suppose.

[Zee]

TOSS
- Kerfoot (1 year, 3.5M) is also a valuable member of the team as a utility player, but we could easily use this cap hit for 3 Marlies grads to get similar production.

I'm a bit confused by this one. You are not finding a Marlies grad to score 51 points while also being 3rd on the team in SH TOI for forwards. Robertson's got potential on the scoring side I suppose.

In this day and age you never know.  I see also-rans on Florida breaking through with big years and wonder why can't the Leafs have some guy that nobody expects suddenly break out and score 20 goals? (see Marchment and Verhaeghe)

[herman]

TOSS
- Kerfoot (1 year, 3.5M) is also a valuable member of the team as a utility player, but we could easily use this cap hit for 3 Marlies grads to get similar production.

I'm a bit confused by this one. You are not finding a Marlies grad to score 51 points while also being 3rd on the team in SH TOI for forwards. Robertson's got potential on the scoring side I suppose.

I haven't done the accounting on this, but I suspect a significant proportion of Kerfoot's 5v5 production was while playing top-6 minutes. Your contention with my initial assertion is valid though. Unless those aforementioned Marlies see top-6 minutes and are more Bunting than Ritchie about it, those 50-pts are going to have to come from aggregate changes to the depth, and leveraging the opened cap space towards top-6 reinforcements.

I'm picking Pontus Holmberg to be the internal replacement for Kerfoot's role.

[herman]

https://twitter.com/iihfhockey/status/1526978102122803200

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/iihfhockey/status/1526978102122803200

Wouldn't that be hilarious if he did come back to the Leafs and did well?