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2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Started by herman, June 10, 2021, 08:22:17 AM

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Heroic Shrimp

Supersize my Freedom Fries


bustaheims

Gonna cycle through a bunch of the fringe types over the next little bit, I imagine.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Guilt Trip

Quote from: bustaheims on December 12, 2021, 02:26:23 PM
Gonna cycle through a bunch of the fringe types over the next little bit, I imagine.
Until Dermott gets back at least..Dahlstrom looks good on the Marlies. Stay at home guy. Glad to see Seney up

louisstamos

Sounds like the game Thursday vs the Flames is going to be postponed...

Joe

How can these guys still want to go to China for the olympics?

Significantly Insignificant

Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on December 12, 2021, 09:45:52 AM
https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1469706919216570373

Both Andersen and Reimer in the top 10, behind Campbell.

So is this chart good or bad?  Does it not mean that Campbell is playing way above his head and that he might not be able to sustain it?
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

WAYNEINIONA

Quote from: louisstamos on December 13, 2021, 10:05:57 AM
Sounds like the game Thursday vs the Flames is going to be postponed...
Six players have been placed on Covid protocol.

Heroic Shrimp

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on December 13, 2021, 11:11:35 AM
Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on December 12, 2021, 09:45:52 AM
https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1469706919216570373

Both Andersen and Reimer in the top 10, behind Campbell.

So is this chart good or bad?  Does it not mean that Campbell is playing way above his head and that he might not be able to sustain it?
No, it's good. Or rather, it's a reflection of how well he's played so far this year. The better goalies are going to save way more goals than average or "expected", which is what this reflects about how he's performed so far.
Supersize my Freedom Fries

Significantly Insignificant

Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on December 13, 2021, 01:44:42 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on December 13, 2021, 11:11:35 AM
Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on December 12, 2021, 09:45:52 AM
https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1469706919216570373

Both Andersen and Reimer in the top 10, behind Campbell.

So is this chart good or bad?  Does it not mean that Campbell is playing way above his head and that he might not be able to sustain it?
No, it's good. Or rather, it's a reflection of how well he's played so far this year. The better goalies are going to save way more goals than average or "expected", which is what this reflects about how he's performed so far.

I'm probably arguing semantics here, but if he is making more saves than expected, doesn't that mean one of two things:
1.  He is playing over his head and making saves that he shouldn't.  Wouldn't that point to luck at some point, like PDO?
2.  If expected doesn't point to what is expected of him as a goalie, then would it not point to the Leafs defense being bad, and that he has to make more saves than what is expected?
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

herman

#1120
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on December 13, 2021, 02:37:17 PM

Quote from: Heroic Shrimp on December 13, 2021, 01:44:42 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on December 13, 2021, 11:11:35 AM
So is this chart good or bad?  Does it not mean that Campbell is playing way above his head and that he might not be able to sustain it?
No, it's good. Or rather, it's a reflection of how well he's played so far this year. The better goalies are going to save way more goals than average or "expected", which is what this reflects about how he's performed so far.
I'm probably arguing semantics here, but if he is making more saves than expected, doesn't that mean one of two things:
1.  He is playing over his head and making saves that he shouldn't.  Wouldn't that point to luck at some point, like PDO?
2.  If expected doesn't point to what is expected of him as a goalie, then would it not point to the Leafs defense being bad, and that he has to make more saves than what is expected?

There's descriptive results and predictive metrics. This one is, as Heroic Shrimp explained very well, the descriptive result, a couple steps more complex than a W-L record or Sv%. A high GSAx correlates strongly to Sv% and Ws though.

If you want a predictive measure, you'd have to compare this to his historical GSAx, but it will be a high variance estimate given his rather small sample playing on this team. Vasilevskiy is often near the top of these charts, for example. If his current year numbers are out of whack with his past performance, there's a significant element of luck involved (or playing through injury, etc.).

Goalie evaluation requires a good deal more input to develop a foundation of context to anchor results reliably. Public models will struggle with this because there just isn't enough data available in the NHL scoresheets for things like rebound control, screened shots, tipped shots, rush chances, and how all of those figures are skewed by the team playing in front of the goalie.

The term Expected here refers to an NHL average shooter vs NHL average goaltender (sampling all the shots from that spot in previous data and seeing how often it went in).
#27 #TeamFasstholes


bustaheims

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

L K


Guilt Trip