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2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Round 1/Qualifier - Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets

Started by disco, July 24, 2020, 08:16:18 PM

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disco

( 8 ) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. ( 9 ) Columbus Blue Jackets (Best-of-Five)
Series tied 2-2

Sunday, Aug. 2: Blue Jackets @ Maple Leafs: Leafs 0 - Jackets 2
Tuesday, Aug. 4: Blue Jackets @ Maple Leafs: Leafs 3 - Jackets 0
Thursday, Aug. 6: Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets: Leafs 3 - Jackets 4 (O/T)
Friday, Aug. 7: Maple Leafs @ Blue Jackets: Leafs 4 - Jackets 3 (O/T)

Sunday, Aug. 9: Blue Jackets @ Maple Leafs, 8pm | NBCSN, NHL.TV, SN, TVAS, FS-O


Projected Rosters:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Nylander-Tavares-Mikheyev
Robertson-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Clifford-Engvall-Spezza
Gauthier

Rielly-Ceci
Dermott-Holl
Marincin-Barrie
Sandin

Andersen
Campbell


Columbus Blue Jackets:

Foligno-Dubois-Bjorkstrand
Nyquist-Jenner-Atkinson
Texier-Wennberg-Bemstrom
Robinson-Nash-Foudy

Werenski-Jones
Gavrikov-Savard
Murray-Kukan
Harrington-Nutivaara

Korpisalo
Merzlikins


Season Series (1-1):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8wMUF4AQvU


Predicting skill, jump and special teams win the day, with team D still being very rusty for most.
Leafs in three.

Bullfrog

Columbus has a very good first line and outstanding top line. But they don't have a single forward of the caliber of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander.

Jones is amazing, but he can't be out there every shift.

CarltonTheBear

If said this before, but I just feel like it'll be a lot easier for a team to reach their maximum offensive potential in such a bizarre environment like this than it will be for a team to reach their maximum defensive potential. If Columbus' goalies can somehow maintain their Jennings-type numbers from the regular season then of course they'll still have a shot. But if those numbers falter in any way the Leafs should have a pretty big advantage.

bustaheims

Quote from: Bullfrog on July 28, 2020, 09:24:49 AM
Columbus has a very good first line and outstanding top line. But they don't have a single forward of the caliber of Tavares, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander.

Jones is amazing, but he can't be out there every shift.

Agreed. They're not a particularly intimidating team offensively. Defensively, however, they can be absolutely smothering when they want to - they'll still allow shots, but they're pretty good at limiting high danger chances.

However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Bender

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 28, 2020, 09:40:20 AM
If said this before, but I just feel like it'll be a lot easier for a team to reach their maximum offensive potential in such a bizarre environment like this than it will be for a team to reach their maximum defensive potential. If Columbus' goalies can somehow maintain their Jennings-type numbers from the regular season then of course they'll still have a shot. But if those numbers falter in any way the Leafs should have a pretty big advantage.

I feel like Merzlikins had a really abnormal run in the middle of this year. He posted 5 shutouts in less than a month. I totally believe he's a good goalie but I also think regression there. I also don't think Columbus is such a stingy defensive team that both Korpisalo & Merzlikins' SV% Above expected being negative is really true.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: bustaheims on July 28, 2020, 10:03:05 AM
However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.

Fun note too in October of this season Columbus had the 5th highest GA/GP rate in the league. Higher than Toronto!

Frank E

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 28, 2020, 10:22:26 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 28, 2020, 10:03:05 AM
However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.

Fun note too in October of this season Columbus had the 5th highest GA/GP rate in the league. Higher than Toronto!

You must be bored to have looked up something so specific...

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Frank E on July 28, 2020, 10:42:36 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on July 28, 2020, 10:22:26 AM
Quote from: bustaheims on July 28, 2020, 10:03:05 AM
However, to expand on what CtB says, early in the season, we typically see teams more organized on the offensive side of things than the defensive side. Considering the long layoff, I suspect this round will play out quite similarly to how games in October would - at least for the first couple games - and that's an advantage for the Leafs.

Fun note too in October of this season Columbus had the 5th highest GA/GP rate in the league. Higher than Toronto!

You must be bored to have looked up something so specific...

Man just wait to see what I'm about to post in a few minutes.

CarltonTheBear

The top 10 teams this season in GA/GP vs. how many goals per game the Leafs scored on them:

BOS   2.39   2.67
DAL   2.52   3.50
ARI   2.61   3.00
CBJ   2.61   3.50
STL   2.68   3.50
COL   2.71   3.00
PHI   2.77   2.33
TB   2.77   3.00
NYI   2.79   3.50
WPG   2.83   4.50

I'm not trying to pass this off as some kind of groundbreaking statistical analysis (obviously there's a big sample size warning for each team) but I think it somewhat shows that Toronto generally didn't have a problem producing offence even against the best defensive teams in the league this season.

herman

#27 #TeamFasstholes



bustaheims

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan


Zee