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Armchair GM Thread 2020-2021

Started by CarltonTheBear, April 07, 2020, 11:25:26 AM

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herman

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2020, 01:27:02 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

That's a yup.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

Guilt Trip

Quote from: herman on April 09, 2020, 01:52:52 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2020, 01:27:02 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

That's a yup.
I don't expect him to. Hard to tell what he's really worth stats wise, when you consider who he's played with. I also don't think we'll hear anything about it until he signs, like Matthews did. It'll be very quiet until it's done unlike the Marner fiasco.

Bender

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2020, 01:27:02 PM
I know that we always say "so and so is going to take a hometown discount with us" and it basically never happens and we look like idiots... but I could really see Hyman taking a hometown discount with us.

"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

CarltonTheBear

Considering how overdue I am for a haircut the resemblance there is actually pretty striking.

princedpw

Obviously, the world has vastly more important things to worry about, but it is too bad the Matthews/Marner contract came up immediately before the pandemic instead of after it ...

OldTimeHockey

Quote from: herman on April 09, 2020, 11:43:56 AM
  • Andersen and Hyman hit UFA 2021: of the 2, you can easily convince me to re-sign and protect Hyman, especially if a Kapanen/Johnsson get moved out
  • Andersen probably doesn't get re-upped here; overpaying 30+ goaltenders is a death sentence in the Cap era (MTL, FLA) even if they're All-Star caliber.

Good post...The only thing I question is the above. I understand your desire not to Montreal this and sign an overhyped, injury prone goalie to a 70 year 700 million dollar contract, but I'm not sure I want to see a poor defensive team with a Jack Campbell/Insert Mediocre starter here tandem and expect to compete.

I'm not even a big Andersen fan but he's going to produce more wins than Campbell and any partner you find for him. Unless there's a guy waiting in the wings relatively soon, or a potential UFA to pick up, i don't see how you go with two borderline starters.

herman

#21
Quote from: herman on April 08, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
https://twitter.com/_marlanderthews/status/1248031815375486977

Pulling this in from the main thread because CJ talk about the pandemic ramifications on the salary cap beyond it staying flat: there's a possibility for a new CBA or salary roll back (a la post-04/05).

Dubas has insinuated this possibility as well (obliquely), that some UFAs then might make different decisions coming out of this situation than they normally would have looking at a long term pay day: i.e. short term to ride out the changed salary measures and jump to a new contract sooner. I don't think a top flight player will take a Spezza year, but they might accommodate their team of choice's cap situation more readily for just a spell.

Too early to say anything definitive but it will have some bearing on how the Leafs proceed with Andersen. Heck maybe even Tyson Barrie.
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

.

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on April 09, 2020, 09:06:03 PM
I'm not even a big Andersen fan but he's going to produce more wins than Campbell and any partner you find for him. Unless there's a guy waiting in the wings relatively soon, or a potential UFA to pick up, i don't see how you go with two borderline starters.

I'd love to see Andersen extended for at least enough time to get some goaltending depth in the system, but another team(s) surely can and will be able to offer more than the leafs can match.

Personally, I find goaltending a difficult position to judge. I don't think that GAA and SV% are particularly good metrics in isolation, and the optics of giving up goals or big saves in tight games tends to cloud judgement. I tend to think Andersen is an elite goalie, playing in front of a very poor defensive team for the majority of his tenure.

herman

"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

Highlander

As Dorothy said "Theres no place like home"............especially in these days.
"In the beginners mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few"
                                           Sunryn Suzuki

herman

Let's say it's July 13, the Leafs have no cap space to land any big RD fish, even after trading out a 3ishM winger for picks and parts.

Is Cody Ceci a no-brainer to bring back on a 1-yr 700k to 1M deal for a third pair-PK role?

I'd be a yes. Is this situation likely to play out... maybe!
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

Nik


I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

herman

Quote from: Nik Bethune on April 15, 2020, 12:47:47 PM

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).
"Can't let the poison get to you"
#BeBlessed #scumbag

princedpw

Quote from: herman on April 15, 2020, 12:48:49 PM
Quote from: Nik Bethune on April 15, 2020, 12:47:47 PM

I admit this isn't how I wanted to make the point but I sure hope we can now all agree that a cap system that doesn't really allow for any flexibility in case the cap drops is probably a bad idea.

Most chatter (via CJ) regarding the cap is that the league and PA will not allow it to drop, holding flat at worst, but I do agree there should be a mechanism in place (luxury tax).

A luxury tax would be awesome, but the owners will never allow it.

I think the fairest thing to do is to set the cap at roughly what it would have been had there been no pandemic.  If you do that then all of the players will take a salary hit in proportion to their current salary and/or salary that they would have received had there been no pandemic (via the escrow mechanism).

If you set the cap (substantially) lower than that (and there is no buyout mechanism), what will wind up happening is that all of the players who already have contracts will not take (much of) a hit and there will be no money left to pay the free agents.  It doesn't seem reasonable that there be massive discrepancies in pay based solely on whether or not a player has a contract through the next year or is a free agent.

----

More generally, a better way to do player contracts is not to assign players set dollar amounts but rather to assign them cap percentages each year.  Then the money they receive automatically goes up and down with league revenue.  Players (and GMs) wouldn't have to guess at what future caps will be.  Right now, we'll have a huge decrease, but in some future year, when we recover, we'll likely have some massive increase.  It makes more sense to me to avoid the guess work involved in economic forecasting, and simply assign players value relative to the cap (and eachother).

Dappleganger

Can we find out if owners have insurance policies that cover losses due to a pandemic? Also, if the players have this type of coverage as well.