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Federal Election 2019

Started by Nik, October 21, 2019, 10:17:39 PM

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hockeyfan1

The rise of the Bkoc Quebecois:  the how and the why:

For the first time in recent history, according to Scotiabank, Quebec's economy will lead the country in GDP growth this year.

There are construction cranes not just in Montreal, but across the province. Mid-sized cities — like Trois-Rivières, Sherbrooke and Drummondville — are growing and adapting to the opportunities of a high-tech economy.

Along their main streets, help-wanted signs can be spotted in just about every other storefront window.

This is a relatively new experience in a province where for years a sluggish economy was understood to be the byproduct of continuous referendum uncertainty.

But the long-term prospects of this growth face significant hurdles thanks to an aging population that is leaving the workforce in droves.

Economists, business lobbies and mayors are pleading for more workers, for immigrants. But these pleas confront more deeply embedded concerns: Will they speak French? Will they adopt our values?

The perception among many Quebecers — especially those older and living outside of Montreal — is that the Trudeau government was deaf to these concerns.

As have similar anxieties elsewhere in the world, in Quebec they have been channeled into nationalism. That is what the Bloc is offering voters.


Story:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/why-bloc-qu-b-cois-141134493.html

Bender

I'm kind of ok with a minority government. I don't know why so many political analysts are calling so much doom and gloom here. We've always been a fairly divided country and whether we throw it behind one party or multiple parties to me is kind of missing the mark. You can win a majority government with 38.5% of the popular vote - that doesn't make me think the country is any less divided, and if we had proportional representation we'd see political divides more accurately I think. The system really skews your view of the actual opinions of voters imo.
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Nik

Quote from: Bender on October 22, 2019, 08:51:16 AM
I'm kind of ok with a minority government. I don't know why so many political analysts are calling so much doom and gloom here. We've always been a fairly divided country and whether we throw it behind one party or multiple parties to me is kind of missing the mark. You can win a majority government with 38.5% of the popular vote - that doesn't make me think the country is any less divided, and if we had proportional representation we'd see political divides more accurately I think. The system really skews your view of the actual opinions of voters imo.

I think it's less about it being a minority government and more about the regional divisions. The re-emergence of the Bloc and the Conservatives dominating in certain provinces to an extent like this is going to make governing difficult.

That said, I think what we saw last night is a pretty good sign that if the Conservatives ever want to form another government they have to do better at appealing to people who care about more than pipelines. If they can come back with a more moderate, 21st century sort of approach it will be a real positive for our Democracy.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Nik


One thing I really don't get though is why there's all this focus on the Leaders when it really seems to me like was an election about policy. Admittedly, at a point where the Conservatives probably wanted to distance themselves from Trump/Ford-esque conservatism being led by a guy with an American passport who fudged his resume didn't help but I still think what sunk them is their lack of a clear message.

Obviously there was a massive problem for the Conservatives in that the traditional measurements of the economy that they like to use(Stock Market, GDP, Unemployment Rate) are actually doing very well right now so they couldn't really paint Trudeau as having wrecked the economy. They tried to make a big deal about deficit spending but in a country where most people have mortgages and student loans, it's pretty tough to tell people that spending money you don't have adds up to fiscal irresponsibility.

So what were they left with? Vague pledges to lower taxes and cut spending, mainly. Now, I understand that modern Conservative economic theory relies on the pillars of Lower Taxes and Less Spending but even then they muddled on messages. When the NDP and Liberals say they'll cut my phone bill, I get that. Every Conservative ad I saw seemed to talk about various tax credits and assorted esoterica within the tax code which may very well have lowered some people's end of year tab but honestly, I didn't even know if any of it would have applied to me as I don't do my own taxes.

Then there's the spending. I know conservatives like to paint themselves as the grown-ups making tough choices and being honest with people vs. progressives and their fanciful promises but that didn't come through at all either. We saw it Ontario where Ford ran on cutting unspecified "waste" but when elected all of a sudden "waste" meant higher class sizes in schools and less money for disabled people. I think most voters understand that if you're going to cut taxes while caring about the deficit it means spending cuts and those spending cuts have to come from somewhere. I get that actually detailing what money you're cutting isn't popular but, well, if you're going to run on fiscal conservatism you need to be upfront about it.

Again, this is an issue where Progressives, even if you disagree with them, have a much clearer message. Deficit Spending? Acceptable. How are you going to finance new Pharma or Dental Care programs? Higher taxes on Businesses and the Wealthy.

Throw in a lack of actual measurable policy on an issue like Climate Change, which is a major and growing concern for Canadians, and I just don't even know what this election was for for the Conservatives. 
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Bates

Quote from: hockeyfan1 on October 22, 2019, 08:07:14 AM
The rise of the Bkoc Quebecois:  the how and the why:

For the first time in recent history, according to Scotiabank, Quebec's economy will lead the country in GDP growth this year.

There are construction cranes not just in Montreal, but across the province. Mid-sized cities — like Trois-Rivières, Sherbrooke and Drummondville — are growing and adapting to the opportunities of a high-tech economy.

Along their main streets, help-wanted signs can be spotted in just about every other storefront window.

This is a relatively new experience in a province where for years a sluggish economy was understood to be the byproduct of continuous referendum uncertainty.

But the long-term prospects of this growth face significant hurdles thanks to an aging population that is leaving the workforce in droves.

Economists, business lobbies and mayors are pleading for more workers, for immigrants. But these pleas confront more deeply embedded concerns: Will they speak French? Will they adopt our values?

The perception among many Quebecers — especially those older and living outside of Montreal — is that the Trudeau government was deaf to these concerns.

As have similar anxieties elsewhere in the world, in Quebec they have been channeled into nationalism. That is what the Bloc is offering voters.


Story:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/why-bloc-qu-b-cois-141134493.html

Quebec leads the Country in GDP growth, has a balanced budget, and receives the majority of Equalization money. Not hard to see how the Country is so divided?

Bender

Quote from: Nik Bethune on October 22, 2019, 10:02:37 AM

One thing I really don't get though is why there's all this focus on the Leaders when it really seems to me like was an election about policy. Admittedly, at a point where the Conservatives probably wanted to distance themselves from Trump/Ford-esque conservatism being led by a guy with an American passport who fudged his resume didn't help but I still think what sunk them is their lack of a clear message.

Obviously there was a massive problem for the Conservatives in that the traditional measurements of the economy that they like to use(Stock Market, GDP, Unemployment Rate) are actually doing very well right now so they couldn't really paint Trudeau as having wrecked the economy. They tried to make a big deal about deficit spending but in a country where most people have mortgages and student loans, it's pretty tough to tell people that spending money you don't have adds up to fiscal irresponsibility.

So what were they left with? Vague pledges to lower taxes and cut spending, mainly. Now, I understand that modern Conservative economic theory relies on the pillars of Lower Taxes and Less Spending but even then they muddled on messages. When the NDP and Liberals say they'll cut my phone bill, I get that. Every Conservative ad I saw seemed to talk about various tax credits and assorted esoterica within the tax code which may very well have lowered some people's end of year tab but honestly, I didn't even know if any of it would have applied to me as I don't do my own taxes.

Then there's the spending. I know conservatives like to paint themselves as the grown-ups making tough choices and being honest with people vs. progressives and their fanciful promises but that didn't come through at all either. We saw it Ontario where Ford ran on cutting unspecified "waste" but when elected all of a sudden "waste" meant higher class sizes in schools and less money for disabled people. I think most voters understand that if you're going to cut taxes while caring about the deficit it means spending cuts and those spending cuts have to come from somewhere. I get that actually detailing what money you're cutting isn't popular but, well, if you're going to run on fiscal conservatism you need to be upfront about it.

Again, this is an issue where Progressives, even if you disagree with them, have a much clearer message. Deficit Spending? Acceptable. How are you going to finance new Pharma or Dental Care programs? Higher taxes on Businesses and the Wealthy.

Throw in a lack of actual measurable policy on an issue like Climate Change, which is a major and growing concern for Canadians, and I just don't even know what this election was for for the Conservatives.

Well, I mean Toronto was always going to be a hard area for the cons to make inroads considering what we're seeing with the provincial government also. Where else would the Cons have made gains potentially? Atlantic Canada? Seems hard to see how the cons had a true path to victory here, but that's exacerbated by what you mention above. How long can cons act like it's the 50s and completely ignore climate science? How effective is MONEY IN YOUR POCKET sloganeering really? Cons have generally not done a very good job of managing the deficit in general either as far as I remember.

I think it's hard for most people who aren't really pro small government, less social services to back this type of conservatism. I think you can be conservative, pro business, anti-deficit but pro pharmacare and climate action. I mean the start of the pro-environmentalist movement could arguably have started as a conservative movement. Isn't that sort of the basis of the word?

Edit: I'm a bit young to really know the term, but weren't there Red Tories in the past?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Nik

Quote from: Bender on October 22, 2019, 10:39:33 AM
Well, I mean Toronto was always going to be a hard area for the cons to make inroads considering what we're seeing with the provincial government also. Where else would the Cons have made gains potentially? Atlantic Canada? Seems hard to see how the cons had a true path to victory here, but that's exacerbated by what you mention above. How long can cons act like it's the 50s and completely ignore climate science? How effective is MONEY IN YOUR POCKET sloganeering really? Cons have generally not done a very good job of managing the deficit in general either as far as I remember.

I agree that it's hard to look at what happened last night and really see a clear path to a Conservative majority(or even government) absent the NDP doing much better.

But I guess my point was more wondering if the issue with the Conservatives in Ontario is with Ford specifically and him being uniquely bad at governing or is it about the problem with trying to run on Conservative economic policies when a lot of them are deeply unpopular.

Quote from: Bender on October 22, 2019, 10:39:33 AM
Edit: I'm a bit young to really know the term, but weren't there Red Tories in the past?

Yes, but the story of the Red Tories is a perfect illustration of why the Conservatives have such a hard time in what is a largely progressive country. The Conservatives could nominate reasonably centrist candidates who didn't have baggage concerning their positions around social issues like Gay Marriage or Abortion but those people would alienate the Social Conservatives who make up a fair portion of their base. In the 90's, the Conservatives had three consecutive 5th place finishes because a more socially conservative/more regional grievance based party took a huge chunk of their vote.

So if the Conservatives went with that approach and moderated their message, sure, maybe they'd win some votes in Atlantic Canada or Ontario but would they lose votes to some version of what Bernier is trying to do and re-split the right wing vote? Because that way is just electoral irrelevance.

I just don't think there's an easy work around for the simple reality that every election in this country the Liberals + NDP + Greens are getting 50-55% of the vote and that's trending up, not down.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Nik Bethune on October 22, 2019, 11:02:03 AM
I just don't think there's an easy work around for the simple reality that every election in this country the Liberals + NDP + Greens are getting 50-55% of the vote and that's trending up, not down.

More like 60%, but yeah:

https://twitter.com/DougSaunders/status/1186247965381480448

Nik

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on October 22, 2019, 11:10:17 AM
More like 60%, but yeah:

The three parties I mentioned are 50-55%. Getting up to 60% depends on counting the Bloc as a "Left-Leaning" party which is a stretch even when they're not actively talking about sovereignty.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Nik Bethune on October 22, 2019, 11:15:18 AM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on October 22, 2019, 11:10:17 AM
More like 60%, but yeah:

The three parties I mentioned are 50-55%. Getting up to 60% depends on counting the Bloc as a "Left-Leaning" party which is a stretch even when they're not actively talking about sovereignty.

They seem pretty left-leaning in their current state, no (I mean if you had to say if they were right or left of centre)? I guess there probably were times in that graph where that got a lot more muddy, especially when the sovereignty talk was being pushed harder.

Nik

Quote from: CarltonTheBear on October 22, 2019, 11:32:13 AM
They seem pretty left-leaning in their current state, no (I mean if you had to say if they were right or left of centre)? I guess there probably were times in that graph where that got a lot more muddy, especially when the sovereignty talk was being pushed harder.

Well, I suppose to some extent that depends on where you'd define the centre. If the Liberals are the centre are the Bloc to the left of them? On some things, I suppose. But maybe I'm overemphasizing its importance but their bill 21 seems pretty antithetical to modern progressivism. Especially when the leader of the NDP is a guy who'd have to take his turban off if he wanted to work at Quebec's DMV.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

CarltonTheBear

Quote from: Nik Bethune on October 22, 2019, 11:38:53 AM
Well, I suppose to some extent that depends on where you'd define the centre. If the Liberals are the centre are the Bloc to the left of them? On some things, I suppose. But maybe I'm overemphasizing its importance but their bill 21 seems pretty antithetical to modern progressivism. Especially when the leader of the NDP is a guy who'd have to take his turban off if he wanted to work at Quebec's DMV.

Yeah bill 21 definitely sticks out like a sore thumb. Even the conservatives don't seem to really support it. I'm not sure how to square that with the rest of their platform.

Bullfrog

I've definitely viewed the BQ as being to the left (closer to the NDP than Liberal.) With regard to Bill 21, I think most of their support is "stay the hell out of Quebec politics" than it was actually supporting the legislation.

but to an earlier point, I agree Nik that a clear (and more socially progressive) Conservative party would be good for Canada. I thought, in general, their platform was a mess and really vague. One of the local candidates for their party is socially progressive, so he seemed really uncomfortable in local debates despite being a very strong candidate.

Dappleganger

This article is from 2017: https://ipolitics.ca/2017/05/24/conservatives-may-come-to-regret-ignoring-michael-chong/

The Conservatives missed an opportunity electing Andrew Scheer instead of Michael Chong as their leader. I believe Chong ended up 4th in the voting.

Bullfrog

Can't stand listening to Scheer. He hasn't even returned to Ottawa and all he does is answer every question with "when this government falls, we'll be ready to lead the country." Same answer for every question.