2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1220345773923217409?s=20

Muzzin is close, conditioning stint with the Marlies so I'd expect him to be ready to go after the All Star break

[WAYNEINIONA]

That's the first good news we've had in a while.

[CarltonTheBear]

I guess he didn't have any bye week plans.

[CarltonTheBear]

The Marlies are in Cleveland this weekend. They play Friday at 7pm and Saturday at 1pm. Then off for a week. So I'm guessing Muzz plays just one of those and unless there's a setback will be good to go Monday against the Preds.

[Highlander]

Good news on the Muzz, we need him back 6 games ago.

[Zee]

I guess he didn't have any bye week plans.

I think technically the Leafs 5 day break was Sunday-Thursday so he still gets his 5 days off.  He may play Saturday.

[.]

I just checked out the standings. The Leafs are in serious trouble trying to make back ground on teams like Carolina and Florida with an already poor defence pretty much decimated...  Reilly was having a bad year, but despite that he was probably still their best overall defenceman. Muzzin isn't going to be at full speed for weeks.

If I was a leafs fan, I'd hope that by the trade deadline, if they aren't in a playoff position, at the very least they trade Barrie to recoup a first round pick. For them to miss and have given up all of those picks is a disaster; I wonder if pride won't get in the way of cutting bait.

[sickbeast]

I just checked out the standings. The Leafs are in serious trouble trying to make back ground on teams like Carolina and Florida with an already poor defence pretty much decimated...  Reilly was having a bad year, but despite that he was probably still their best overall defenceman. Muzzin isn't going to be at full speed for weeks.

If I was a leafs fan, I'd hope that by the trade deadline, if they aren't in a playoff position, at the very least they trade Barrie to recoup a first round pick. For them to miss and have given up all of those picks is a disaster; I wonder if pride won't get in the way of cutting bait.

The team is in an interesting position this season and I don't envy Dubas in terms of the decisions he's going to have to make.  What he does at the deadline is going to have lasting consequences.  With more cap space opening up next season, the Leafs are in a good position to sell off some assets at this year's deadline, and then go for it next season.  The injury to Reilly is especially brutal.  I'm quite wary about pulling off some type of blockbuster trades and going for it this year.  It's too risky IMO.  The team has been too inconsistent and their defence is especially weak with their two top defenders out injured right now.

Realistically the Leafs need at least some type of backup goalie and at least a couple of good to great defensemen to have a chance.  I just don't see Dubas being able to pull that off.

I guess the third option is to do nothing and just roll with what they've got.

Like I said, tough choices and I'm glad I'm not in the position of having to do it.  What happens at this year's deadline could cost Dubas his job.

[bustaheims]

I just checked out the standings. The Leafs are in serious trouble trying to make back ground on teams like Carolina and Florida with an already poor defence pretty much decimated...  Reilly was having a bad year, but despite that he was probably still their best overall defenceman. Muzzin isn't going to be at full speed for weeks.

If I was a leafs fan, I'd hope that by the trade deadline, if they aren't in a playoff position, at the very least they trade Barrie to recoup a first round pick. For them to miss and have given up all of those picks is a disaster; I wonder if pride won't get in the way of cutting bait.

The next couple weeks will be very important to the team. If they go on a run and reclaim a playoff spot, then maybe they look to add (the cap complicates things, but, teams find ways). Obviously, if they continue to struggle, they'll be in a position where they should sell - anything more than a 5 or so point gap between them and a playoff spot is a big enough gap that they should, at the very least, move out the guys they don't expect to be back next season.

If they tread water, it becomes much more difficult to judge. They'll still be in striking range of a playoff spot - close enough that they shouldn't be throwing in the towel, but far enough back that the odds would be against them. In that situation, you still move a couple guys out - guys who being moved will be low impact on the roster, but would still bring in a few late round picks (think Ceci, Spezza, etc.) - but, outside of that, you're probably looking at making "hockey trades," which are harder to come by at the deadline.

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1220722006641053698

Ooh ooh I know!

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1220722006641053698

Ooh ooh I know!

I'm so tired of hearing how bad the Leafs are defensively. We're on a PDO cold streak with Freddy literally being average or below average all year long. We live and die by Freddie and we need him on his game or we're pooched.

[Nik]

I don't know if you can completely separate "Freddie hasn't been his usual self" from the Leafs not being super good defensively but I'd agree that right now the Leafs are just firmly establishing that outscoring mediocre goaltending isn't a sustainable gameplan.

[bustaheims]

I don't know if you can completely separate "Freddie hasn't been his usual self" from the Leafs not being super good defensively but I'd agree that right now the Leafs are just firmly establishing that outscoring mediocre goaltending isn't a sustainable gameplan.

Yeah. This is not an either/or situation. It's a both/and. Andersen hasn't been as good as he has been in the past, which is concerning, but his stretch of weaker play has really just meant the Leafs are paying for their defensive issues more. They give up a lot of high danger scoring chances (8th most in the league, per Natural Stat Trick), and, with Freddie not playing at as high a level as we've become accustomed to, more of them are finding their way into the net.

[Frank E]

I don't know if you can completely separate "Freddie hasn't been his usual self" from the Leafs not being super good defensively but I'd agree that right now the Leafs are just firmly establishing that outscoring mediocre goaltending isn't a sustainable gameplan.

Yeah. This is not an either/or situation. It's a both/and. Andersen hasn't been as good as he has been in the past, which is concerning, but his stretch of weaker play has really just meant the Leafs are paying for their defensive issues more. They give up a lot of high danger scoring chances (8th most in the league, per Natural Stat Trick), and, with Freddie not playing at as high a level as we've become accustomed to, more of them are finding their way into the net.

So, if we can agree their "outscoring the problem" isn't likely sustainable if the goal is a Cup, then what do they do?

I look at the roster construction, and there are only 30 or so games left, and they're not looking like a team that is on the cusp of being able to play a shut-down hockey game.

Do they embrace what they are and just put the foot to the floor on offense, or does Keefe downshift at this point of the season?

[Bender]

I don't know if you can completely separate "Freddie hasn't been his usual self" from the Leafs not being super good defensively but I'd agree that right now the Leafs are just firmly establishing that outscoring mediocre goaltending isn't a sustainable gameplan.

Yeah. This is not an either/or situation. It's a both/and. Andersen hasn't been as good as he has been in the past, which is concerning, but his stretch of weaker play has really just meant the Leafs are paying for their defensive issues more. They give up a lot of high danger scoring chances (8th most in the league, per Natural Stat Trick), and, with Freddie not playing at as high a level as we've become accustomed to, more of them are finding their way into the net.

We've been hovering around that number for a few years now though. 11th and 12th in the most previous years. Freddie's expected goals is underwater at this point. I went to the Devils game and the Blackhawks game and while the team didn't look like defensive stalwarts, they didn't look horrendous either. There've been times where Freddie's come up big like a few times in OT when we really blew coverage, but I can recall two goals from the Devils game off the top of my head that I place most blame on Freddie and at least 2 or 3 against the Blackhawks. This is a recording. The Leafs being not great defensively isn't new to this year or new to Keefe taking over (to some extent I feel like this narrative is media driven that Babcock was playing a more clamp down style which is just false).

What was Freddy's expected save percentage in prior years? Without looking I'd bet it was at least positive.