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Auston Matthews

Started by disco, October 12, 2016, 10:02:16 PM

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Nik

#1590
Quote from: Zee on February 08, 2023, 09:54:43 AMIt would be the worst possible outcome if he walks for nothing.  We're talking about a calder winner, 2 time Rocket Richard winner and Hart and Lindsay winner just walking out the door.  I don't agree that they couldn't get a huge package in a trade for him this July.  We've never seen a player of Matthews abilities traded in their prime, he would return multiple first round picks not just one.

We literally saw Wayne Gretzky traded in his prime.

Also it seems reasonably relevant to point out that you suggested that the Leafs trade Matthews not if he says he won't sign with them at all but that they should trade him just if he doesn't sign an extension literally the first day he's eligible to. That's akin to selling your house for five bucks because you're worried you may lose it for nothing.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Zee

Quote from: Nik on February 08, 2023, 10:22:41 AM
Quote from: Zee on February 08, 2023, 09:54:43 AMIt would be the worst possible outcome if he walks for nothing.  We're talking about a calder winner, 2 time Rocket Richard winner and Hart and Lindsay winner just walking out the door.  I don't agree that they couldn't get a huge package in a trade for him this July.  We've never seen a player of Matthews abilities traded in their prime, he would return multiple first round picks not just one.

We literally saw Wayne Gretzky traded in his prime.

Also it seems reasonably relevant to point out that you suggested that the Leafs trade Matthews not if he says he won't sign with them at all but that they should trade him just if he doesn't sign an extension literally the first day he's eligible to. That's akin to selling your house for five bucks because you're worried you may lose it for nothing.

Different circumstance with Gretzky as the owner needed money, Matthews is a bit younger than Gretzky when he was dealt.

The situation I'm referring to here is the Leafs get bounced again the first round.  Dubas and possibly Shanahan are both ousted and a new regime comes in talking about re-evaluating everything.  At that point Matthews might make it clear he's not willing to re-sign and will go to free agency, you have to explore trading him at that point.  Teams in the west like LA, Anaheim and even Arizona would have the cap space and young assets to part with for him, and they would all be willing to take a big swing to get their teams relevant again.  You would get Matthews for next season and also the opportunity to sign him for 8 more years. That's worth a lot.

Nik

Quote from: Zee on February 08, 2023, 10:28:13 AMThe situation I'm referring to here is the Leafs get bounced again the first round.  Dubas and possibly Shanahan are both ousted and a new regime comes in talking about re-evaluating everything.  At that point Matthews might make it clear he's not willing to re-sign and will go to free agency, you have to explore trading him at that point.

I mean, absolutely none of that was in your comment or any of the ones prior to it. Just, and I quote, "If he doesn't extend come July 1st you have to trade him."

But, sure, like I said if he makes it 100% clear he's not re-signing you explore trading him. But even then the reality is that all you're likely to do the next few years is trying to package together what you can to try and replace him so as long as they've got a shot at re-signing him they should stay in that picture.

Quote from: Zee on February 08, 2023, 10:28:13 AMTeams in the west like LA, Anaheim and even Arizona would have the cap space and young assets to part with for him, and they would all be willing to take a big swing to get their teams relevant again.  You would get Matthews for next season and also the opportunity to sign him for 8 more years. That's worth a lot.

As I always used to say back in the day, any time your trade idea revolves around another team doing something stupid you're probably proposing a trade we're not likely to see. I think you'd agree that if the situation was reversed, you'd think the Leafs trading a major package of picks and prospects, that is to say a major part of the team's future, for a guy you may or may not be able to sign to an extension was a pretty bad decision on their part. Fact is we've heard a lot of "Team X in a non-traditional market may be willing to wildly overpay for a player to be 'relevant" before but those teams are run by competent people for the most part and they know that the only real way for them to be relevant is to build a winning team. Trading for Matthews only to see him leave and lose a major chunk of their prospect base/draft capital is a bad decision any way you slice it.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Zee

Quote from: Nik on February 08, 2023, 10:50:05 AMAs I always used to say back in the day, any time your trade idea revolves around another team doing something stupid you're probably proposing a trade we're not likely to see. I think you'd agree that if the situation was reversed, you'd think the Leafs trading a major package of picks and prospects, that is to say a major part of the team's future, for a guy you may or may not be able to sign to an extension was a pretty bad decision on their part. Fact is we've heard a lot of "Team X in a non-traditional market may be willing to wildly overpay for a player to be 'relevant" before but those teams are run by competent people for the most part and they know that the only real way for them to be relevant is to build a winning team. Trading for Matthews only to see him leave and lose a major chunk of their prospect base/draft capital is a bad decision any way you slice it.

The deal could be structured around Matthews agreeing to an extension with the acquiring team beforehand.  Once they know they have him for 9 years, the deal is done.

Nik

#1594
Quote from: Zee on February 08, 2023, 11:06:27 AM
Quote from: Nik on February 08, 2023, 10:50:05 AMAs I always used to say back in the day, any time your trade idea revolves around another team doing something stupid you're probably proposing a trade we're not likely to see. I think you'd agree that if the situation was reversed, you'd think the Leafs trading a major package of picks and prospects, that is to say a major part of the team's future, for a guy you may or may not be able to sign to an extension was a pretty bad decision on their part. Fact is we've heard a lot of "Team X in a non-traditional market may be willing to wildly overpay for a player to be 'relevant" before but those teams are run by competent people for the most part and they know that the only real way for them to be relevant is to build a winning team. Trading for Matthews only to see him leave and lose a major chunk of their prospect base/draft capital is a bad decision any way you slice it.

The deal could be structured around Matthews agreeing to an extension with the acquiring team beforehand.  Once they know they have him for 9 years, the deal is done.

Sure but there are two minor issues with that. First of all nobody has suggested you wouldn't be able to get a good return for Matthews if he's willing to sign an extension. The only person who said anything about the quality of the return for him was me and I said:

Quote from: Nik on February 07, 2023, 05:18:06 PMRealistically there's not going to be a "boatload" of picks and prospects if Matthews isn't interested in signing an extension.

But, ok, either way. Then we get back into the reality of what you're suggesting. If Matthews is a year away from free agency and doesn't want to re-sign with the Leafs then odds are the Leafs options trade-wise aren't just any team who could put together the best trade package for him, it will have to be limited to a team that Matthews wants to sign over basically the rest of the prime years of his career to. Now, in your scenario I'm assuming part of Matthews is refusing to sign with the Leafs because of their inability to succeed in the playoffs so how likely is it that he's going to be willing to sign with a team that's effectively a bottom feeder in the NHL? And, in the case of Phoenix, definitely not a team that will be threatening the cap any time soon.

If Matthews has his heart dead set on leaving then he's not going to be inclined to do the Leafs any great favours on his way out the door. He'll treat being traded like free agency and the Leafs will probably be fairly limited in their trading partners to teams Matthews wants to sign an extension with. That means probably a reasonably decent team which means that, once you add Matthews, probably means that any picks you get are going to be towards the back end of the first round.

So, again, we're back to a decent return but not a world ending one if the Leafs don't land it.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

So, is the season over already?  Are they all somewhere on a beach in Belize?

OldTimeHockey

Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 08, 2023, 09:35:43 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on February 08, 2023, 07:52:38 AM
Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 07, 2023, 06:43:03 PM
Quote from: L K on February 07, 2023, 05:31:16 PM
Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 07, 2023, 04:30:57 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on February 07, 2023, 03:39:52 PMHe'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

I'm saying that even if they weren't in a strong playoff position, Dubas wouldn't trade Matthews. That's the Dubas thing. I'm not complaining about it. Just saying that anyone that wants or expects the Leafs to trade Matthews if he hasn't signed long-term shouldn't get their hopes up. At least not as long as Dubas is GM.

I think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Bill_Berg

#1597
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on February 09, 2023, 07:31:18 AM
Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 08, 2023, 09:35:43 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on February 08, 2023, 07:52:38 AM
Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 07, 2023, 06:43:03 PM
Quote from: L K on February 07, 2023, 05:31:16 PM
Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 07, 2023, 04:30:57 PM
Quote from: CarltonTheBear on February 07, 2023, 03:39:52 PMHe'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

I'm saying that even if they weren't in a strong playoff position, Dubas wouldn't trade Matthews. That's the Dubas thing. I'm not complaining about it. Just saying that anyone that wants or expects the Leafs to trade Matthews if he hasn't signed long-term shouldn't get their hopes up. At least not as long as Dubas is GM.

I think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Well not many, but he hasn't traded any because they won't sign either I believe, and it's probably a many GM thing. Take the last playoff year rather than dump for assets because the play won't sign. The whole self-rental concept. I don't mean to say it's exclusively a Dubas thing, more that to trade Matthews next year because he won't sign will require a different GM. And maybe even a GM that's looking to cause a ruckus on the roster to boot.

Dappleganger

Quote from: OldTimeHockey on February 09, 2023, 07:31:18 AMI think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Definitely should have traded Tyson Barrie at the deadline in 2020. There were rumours the Leafs were shopping him and I'd argue the Leafs would have been a better team without his presence. Whatever asset they could have secured would have been better than letting him walk.

Obviously looking back, hindsight 20/20, yadda yadda...

bustaheims

Quote from: Bill_Berg_is_sad on February 09, 2023, 11:11:11 AMWell not many, but he hasn't traded any because they won't sign either I believe, and it's probably a many GM thing. Take the last playoff year rather than dump for assets because the play won't sign. The whole self-rental concept. I don't mean to say it's exclusively a Dubas thing, more that to trade Matthews next year because he won't sign will require a different GM. And maybe even a GM that's looking to cause a ruckus on the roster to boot.

Teams that are securely in playoff spots and consider themselves to be real Cup contenders typically don't move significant roster pieces out at the deadline. Obviously, there have been the odd exception over the years, but, it's definitely not a Dubas thing. It's a widespread and very understandable thing - GMs of winning teams are better served by success in the playoffs than by accumulating assets. Obviously, the success has eluded the Leafs so far, but they're still very much in that category of team at the moment.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

Quote from: Dappleganger on February 09, 2023, 11:25:15 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on February 09, 2023, 07:31:18 AMI think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Definitely should have traded Tyson Barrie at the deadline in 2020. There were rumours the Leafs were shopping him and I'd argue the Leafs would have been a better team without his presence. Whatever asset they could have secured would have been better than letting him walk.

Obviously looking back, hindsight 20/20, yadda yadda...


And as Nik or somebody has been reminding us, getting nothing for JVR, Bozak, and I think one or two more.

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on February 09, 2023, 01:04:47 PM
Quote from: Dappleganger on February 09, 2023, 11:25:15 AM
Quote from: OldTimeHockey on February 09, 2023, 07:31:18 AMI think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Definitely should have traded Tyson Barrie at the deadline in 2020. There were rumours the Leafs were shopping him and I'd argue the Leafs would have been a better team without his presence. Whatever asset they could have secured would have been better than letting him walk.

Obviously looking back, hindsight 20/20, yadda yadda...


And as Nik or somebody has been reminding us, getting nothing for JVR, Bozak, and I think one or two more.
Those were on Lou..add in Uncle Leo

Significantly Insignificant

#1602
Quote from: Guilt Trip on February 06, 2023, 11:51:15 PMSince Matthews came into the league in 2016 up to around Jan 20th, he's 2nd in GWG, 5 behind McD in 38 less games and 1 ahead of Drai in 43 less games.

Matthews was 64 5v5 goals ahead of Drai,(43 less games), 33 ahead of McD (38 less games), 41 ahead of Ovi (32 less games).

Those are great stats as well.  I used the career stats because I think it points to a consistency in goal scoring that is pretty remarkable.  He started well, and he hasn't really ever fallen off.

One of the things that I have found interesting lately, is the way the narrative around Crosby and Ovechkin has changed.  When the two of them came into the league, they were both touted  as faces of the league, but I always thought that people put Crosby out in front of Ovechkin, mainly due to the cups that Crosby won.  Lately though I feel the narrative has shifted more towards Ovechkin being the better player, and it's probably because he is going to be the greatest goal scorer of all time.  Of course Sid will have great numbers and probably finish in the top 10, maybe top 5, of point getters in the history of the NHL.

Now lets fast forward 10 years, and lets say that Matthews is in striking distance of Ovechkin, with a chance to catch him and McDavid looks like he'll finish around 3rd all time in points, does that change the narrative on the two players?
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan

Guilt Trip

Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on February 09, 2023, 07:49:47 PM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on February 06, 2023, 11:51:15 PMSince Matthews came into the league in 2016 up to around Jan 20th, he's 2nd in GWG, 5 behind McD in 38 less games and 1 ahead of Drai in 43 less games.

Matthews was 64 5v5 goals ahead of Drai,(43 less games), 33 ahead of McD (38 less games), 41 ahead of Ovi (32 less games).

Those are great stats as well.  I used the career stats because I think it points to a consistency in goal scoring that is pretty remarkable.  He started well, and he hasn't really ever fallen off.

One of the things that I have found interesting lately, is the way the narrative around Crosby and Ovechkin has changed.  When the two of them came into the league, they were both touted  as faces of the league, but I always thought that people put Crosby out in front of Ovechkin, mainly due to the cups that Crosby won.  Lately though I feel the narrative has shifted more towards Ovechkin being the better player, and it's probably because he is going to be the greatest goal scorer of all time.  Of course Sid will have great numbers and probably finish in the top 10, maybe top 5, of point getters in the history of the NHL.

Now lets fast forward 10 years, and lets say that Matthews is in striking distance of Ovechkin, with a chance to catch him and McDavid looks like he'll finish around 3rd all time in points, does that change the narrative on the two players?
Disagree. Crosby was and still is ahead because he's just a better player. Nothing to do with cups for me. Despite playing 168 games less Crosby is 4pts ahead of Ovi. That's almost 2 seasons. Sid for me and it isn't close.

As for Matthews and McDavid. It probably  wont change because McD is so dominant on the offensive side of things so if he can keep this up...

Significantly Insignificant

Quote from: Guilt Trip on February 09, 2023, 09:09:32 PM
Quote from: Significantly Insignificant on February 09, 2023, 07:49:47 PM
Quote from: Guilt Trip on February 06, 2023, 11:51:15 PMSince Matthews came into the league in 2016 up to around Jan 20th, he's 2nd in GWG, 5 behind McD in 38 less games and 1 ahead of Drai in 43 less games.

Matthews was 64 5v5 goals ahead of Drai,(43 less games), 33 ahead of McD (38 less games), 41 ahead of Ovi (32 less games).

Those are great stats as well.  I used the career stats because I think it points to a consistency in goal scoring that is pretty remarkable.  He started well, and he hasn't really ever fallen off.

One of the things that I have found interesting lately, is the way the narrative around Crosby and Ovechkin has changed.  When the two of them came into the league, they were both touted  as faces of the league, but I always thought that people put Crosby out in front of Ovechkin, mainly due to the cups that Crosby won.  Lately though I feel the narrative has shifted more towards Ovechkin being the better player, and it's probably because he is going to be the greatest goal scorer of all time.  Of course Sid will have great numbers and probably finish in the top 10, maybe top 5, of point getters in the history of the NHL.

Now lets fast forward 10 years, and lets say that Matthews is in striking distance of Ovechkin, with a chance to catch him and McDavid looks like he'll finish around 3rd all time in points, does that change the narrative on the two players?
Disagree. Crosby was and still is ahead because he's just a better player. Nothing to do with cups for me. Despite playing 168 games less Crosby is 4pts ahead of Ovi. That's almost 2 seasons. Sid for me and it isn't close.

As for Matthews and McDavid. It probably  wont change because McD is so dominant on the offensive side of things so if he can keep this up...

That's fair,  I wasn't saying who was actually better in my mind.  I was talking more about the general narrative, which at the end of a career usually starts to revolve around what records you have accomplished, and in Crosby's case, it is harder for him to break records around points due to the crazy seasons that Gretzky put up, but Ovechkin has a very real possibility to become the leading goal scorer of all time.  He may become the first player to score 900 goals in a career, and while that might not move the needle for you, for the media, they want something to talk about, so they are going to talk about the guy that is close to scoring 900 goals, over the guy that will probably settle into the top 5 in scoring.  The more a player is talked about, the more they have to build up this player which moves the needle on how that player is perceived, rightly or wrongly.

For me, an interesting case is Jagr.  What would the narrative have been if he had gotten to 2000 points, and became only the second player ever to achieve that?  I think he would have been talked about more than he was, even though as it stands today he is the second leading point getter of all time.

I can see a scenario where if McDavid is chasing 2000 points at the end of the career, that is the main storyline that the NHL wants to run with when it comes to a Matthews-McDavid comparison, but if he isn't close, and Matthews is poised to eclipse 900 goals, I think that Matthews becomes the bigger headline.
"We can't change what's done, we can only move on." - Arthur Morgan