Quick links:  Login  |  Sign up  |  Site Rules  |  Support TMLfans

The trade deadline and the ostensibly perplexing Phaneuf issue

Started by x.jr.benchwarmer, January 24, 2016, 10:34:34 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

x.jr.benchwarmer

With the trade deadline at the end of February, and with the usual names being thrown out  (Polak, Bernier, and Winnick),  perhaps this might be the best time for the Leafs to try to maximize their captain's trade value.

Say what you will about his mobility, puck movement, lack of scoring, penchant for penalties,  idiotic contract,    etc. etc.  etc.  there seems to be  a consensus that he is playing better than he has in some time  (maybe as many as 4 years) :).  And with Lou L.  picked as the guru of the Leafs, it may be the case that it might be a good time to try to get the most value in terms of picks, etc. for Dion.   In addition,  a trade  (even if some salary would have to be taken back)  might open up the Leafs for a potential signing of free agents in the next couple of years  (might it even be Stamkos?).

Hopefully, there might be some interest out there for Phaneuf, and if so, hopefully Lou is in a position to maximize his trade potential.

But then again, I might just be dreaming a bit. :)

Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

I'm not against trading anybody on the roster except Rielly, and that certainly includes Phaneuf.  On the face of it, it might not seem like anybody would be interested in a 2/3 30+ defenseman making the money Dion does and whose offense has diminished.  But then again, GMs under pressure to win are always looking for defensemen at the deadline.  His value will never be higher going forward, of that I'm pretty sure.

Still, having said all that, I'd be surprised to see him traded.

Nik


What can the Leafs do to maximize his or anyone elses trade value? Isn't a player's trade value decided by other teams?
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

losveratos

Quote from: Nik the Trik on January 25, 2016, 01:19:31 AM

What can the Leafs do to maximize his or anyone elses trade value? Isn't a player's trade value decided by other teams?

For a goalie, attempt to inflate the stats by starting them against the weakest competition possible and playing on the front half of a back to back. For defensemen, put them up against weaker competition to inflate their +/- and possibly point totals. Give them more power play and penalty killing time to keep the TOI high but the goals for and against not counted as strictly during penalty killing. And for forwards.... not sure. Perhaps give them your best assist making line mates but theres more importance to chemistry there.

Not saying any team would do any of these things or that the end result would be a huge difference. But if you had everyone from the coach to the GM on board with the idea you could upgrade a few returned prospects or turn some 4th round pick returns into 3rd rounders. Things like that. But it might not be easy to hide.

Just a couple ideas to answer your question there.

Nik

Quote from: losveratos on January 25, 2016, 01:36:14 AM
For a goalie, attempt to inflate the stats by starting them against the weakest competition possible and playing on the front half of a back to back. For defensemen, put them up against weaker competition to inflate their +/- and possibly point totals. Give them more power play and penalty killing time to keep the TOI high but the goals for and against not counted as strictly during penalty killing. And for forwards.... not sure. Perhaps give them your best assist making line mates but theres more importance to chemistry there.

I suppose it seems to me that most of those things would be counter-productive given that other teams would see what you were doing. It's not like PP ice time leading to defensemen scoring points or the effect of linemates on a forward's scoring are secrets.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

losveratos

Quote from: Nik the Trik on January 25, 2016, 01:42:11 AM
Quote from: losveratos on January 25, 2016, 01:36:14 AM
For a goalie, attempt to inflate the stats by starting them against the weakest competition possible and playing on the front half of a back to back. For defensemen, put them up against weaker competition to inflate their +/- and possibly point totals. Give them more power play and penalty killing time to keep the TOI high but the goals for and against not counted as strictly during penalty killing. And for forwards.... not sure. Perhaps give them your best assist making line mates but theres more importance to chemistry there.

I suppose it seems to me that most of those things would be counter-productive given that other teams would see what you were doing. It's not like PP ice time leading to defensemen scoring points or the effect of linemates on a forward's scoring are secrets.

It's true. This was entirely off the top of my head and not very well thought out. But NHL teams are filled with people who are solely responsible for improving the club in any way they can. I could imagine more subtle ways of manipulating stats and such that could increase the value of a player. I refuse to believe it hasn't been done and I also refuse to believe it's not on their minds if an opportunity arises.

Now... how successful is it? How often does it happen? No idea. I'd like to believe that they're good enough at doing it that some random poster on the internet (me) can't see it very clearly.

Nik

Quote from: losveratos on January 25, 2016, 01:48:04 AM
Now... how successful is it? How often does it happen? No idea. I'd like to believe that they're good enough at doing it that some random poster on the internet (me) can't see it very clearly.

In this hypothetical though, they're not trying to fool you or me, they're trying to hoodwink another NHL team into believing a player is more valuable than he is. Like you say, both teams are staffed with people whose jobs it is to improve the team. So it's not about manipulating the stats so it's undetectable to dopes like me, it's about fooling pro scouts/stats guys who'll be working just as hard to accurately gauge a player's value as the other team is to mask it.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

losveratos

Quote from: Nik the Trik on January 25, 2016, 02:13:59 AM
Quote from: losveratos on January 25, 2016, 01:48:04 AM
Now... how successful is it? How often does it happen? No idea. I'd like to believe that they're good enough at doing it that some random poster on the internet (me) can't see it very clearly.

In this hypothetical though, they're not trying to fool you or me, they're trying to hoodwink another NHL team into believing a player is more valuable than he is. Like you say, both teams are staffed with people whose jobs it is to improve the team. So it's not about manipulating the stats so it's undetectable to dopes like me, it's about fooling pro scouts/stats guys who'll be working just as hard to accurately gauge a player's value as the other team is to mask it.

I agree with that and I think that's why some front offices are better than others at getting the right players at the right time for the right prices and other aren't. These little games they play (hypothetically) are what separates the good from the greats. Or maybe it doesn't.

I choose to live in the reality of back room meetings trying to figure out how to squeeze the most out of every prospect and sneakily finding prospects on another team that they aren't watching closely enough to see that they've taken a step up. Then trying to acquire them of course.

It's also entirely possible that reality is much less interesting... but I reject that reality and substitute my own ^_^

hobarth

Quote from: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 24, 2016, 11:14:28 PM
I'm not against trading anybody on the roster except Rielly, and that certainly includes Phaneuf.  On the face of it, it might not seem like anybody would be interested in a 2/3 30+ defenseman making the money Dion does and whose offense has diminished.  But then again, GMs under pressure to win are always looking for defensemen at the deadline.  His value will never be higher going forward, of that I'm pretty sure.

Still, having said all that, I'd be surprised to see him traded.

Seabrook just signed for 6.875 mil and he's also 30 years old and I would call him Chicago's #2. I don't think anyone complains that Seabrook got signed for so much yet he's actually receiving more $s than their #1 d-man, Duncan Keith. Some other strange things that are noticeable if you check out their careers, Phanny outscored Seabrook until he was traded to TO, Ohanny also had a superior +/- rating until he played for TO.

We all know how good Seabrook is but I wonder if the shoe would be on the other foot if Seabrook was playing for TO and Phanny for Chicago?

Nik


Not that it particularly matters but Phaneuf, in his five years in Calgary, was a +19. Seabrook, in his first five years with the Hawks, was a +55.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

hobarth

Better team, better team mates, there's all kinds of factors that could explain why Seabrook is considered better than Phanny but most of factors can be rationalized by where they play. I think the comparison is apples(superior players) justifiably, one apple got to play with other apples and the other played with lemons.

Nik

Quote from: hobarth on February 03, 2016, 12:18:41 PM
Better team, better team mates, there's all kinds of factors that could explain why Seabrook is considered better than Phanny but most of factors can be rationalized by where they play. I think the comparison is apples(superior players) justifiably, one apple got to play with other apples and the other played with lemons.

Again, I think +/- is meaningless. I was just pointing out that Phaneuf's wasn't "superior" to Seabrook's when he was in Calgary as you'd said.
I wish to hell I'd never said "Winning isn't everything it's the only thing". What I believe is, if you go out on a football field, or any endeavour in life, and you leave every fibre of what you have on the field, then you've won.
- Vince Lombardi

Highlander

I would trade him for six walk/don't walk signs and some old crosswalk markers that didn't tell you when he light will change.
"In the beginners mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few"
                                           Sunryn Suzuki

x.jr.benchwarmer

Quote from: Highlander on February 03, 2016, 06:34:18 PM
I would trade him for six walk/don't walk signs and some old crosswalk markers that didn't tell you when he light will change.

That is certainly one interesting perspective on his trade value....

I find it interesting that he is viewed by some, I surmise,  as a power play stalwart yet he hasn't had a power play goal this year, and last had one in February last year.  And this is playing virtually every Leaf power play (or perhaps close to 95%)  during that period.  So if Toronto could trade him, and get any draft pick that might help, even minimally, somewhere down the line, I would suggest that the Leafs should seriously consider it.

In addition to everything else, if Dion's salary is somehow off the books, over the next 4 to 5 years, this might make the Leafs have more cap space to sign Stamkos, if that would ever happen, but more importantly, in a couple of years to sign a very fine UFA,  or even Bishop to help cure any goaltending issues in the future.

But of course we can conjecture all we want about his trade value, and talent, etc.  There has to be a willing partner to trade with, and I can't see any team wanting him, unfortunately...

LuncheonMeat

I think the best case scenario for the Leafs is Phaneuf plays well the rest of the year and they try to move him in the off-season. I think he becomes a must-move player if the Leafs are able/choose to sign Stamkos. They'll need his cap dollars, and probably the C off the front of his shirt. They'll likely do better in a Phaneuf trade once there are more teams that can take on his contract, especially if they're willing to retain some of it.
"How many people from Ontario play in the National Hockey League? Once we make it safe, they're coming home. Mark my words, they'll be coming."
~ Mike Bacock, in an open letter to Steven Stamkos Drew Doughty John Tavares