The ridiculously premature 2016 draft prospects thread

[Potvin29]

Well I can't remember all of the players who once were ranked that highly at that age, but I don't think those experiences would really stop me taking him with a later pick if he's available.  I know in at least one of those cases (Kabanov) there were a series of decisions made which impacted his career negatively.  But I don't think just because some other players were once ranked highly and flamed out means that every player will.  But basically just think he'd be worth a pick outside of the 1st round.

No, but they're just cautionary tales not to put too much stock in a player's performance when he was 14 or 15 when it comes time to draft. I don't really get the feeling that anything Day has done last season or this season has really warranted him being in the discussion for a top-40 selection.

I thought I had read that his physical tools were all still pretty highly regarded.

[herman]

Just looking through that, I cannot believe how much Sean Day has "fallen" - he was one of the players granted exceptional status to play in the OHL at 15 and his highest ranking is 31 out of those provided. 

Speaking of Day, Gare Joyce did a good feature on him and his situation a few days ago: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/sunday-big-read-chl-shouldnt-have-made-an-exception-for-steelheads-sean-day/

I think I would definitely take a flier on him.

Joyce's description of Day's situation paints a picture of exactly the type of player Shanahan's management team would not want.

I do hope he can turn it around to use the situation as an extrinsic motivator, and not be a Ho Sang about it.

[Potvin29]

Just looking through that, I cannot believe how much Sean Day has "fallen" - he was one of the players granted exceptional status to play in the OHL at 15 and his highest ranking is 31 out of those provided. 

Speaking of Day, Gare Joyce did a good feature on him and his situation a few days ago: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/sunday-big-read-chl-shouldnt-have-made-an-exception-for-steelheads-sean-day/

I think I would definitely take a flier on him.

Joyce's description of Day's situation paints a picture of exactly the type of player Shanahan's management team would not want.

I do hope he can turn it around to use the situation as an extrinsic motivator, and not be a Ho Sang about it.

Whoa, let's keep the insults about Day to a civil level.

[Potvin29]

Man, Matthews looks sooooo good:

[Bender]

Does it matter that it's the Swiss league though? I mean how would Nylander look if he was playing there instead of the SHL?

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[Nik]

Does it matter that it's the Swiss league though? I mean how would Nylander look if he was playing there instead of the SHL?

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I mean, that's the context it should be seen in sure but the comparison would be to the level of play in, say, the OHL or NCAA.

[L K]

He's 17 and has 25 points in 22 games playing against men.  He's tied for 4th in goal scoring and is 14th in points.  He's one of 9 players at PPG or better in the Swiss league.

Is there a big difference between Matthews and Nylander's season last year?  Yeah, a year in age.  It doesn't devalue Nylander's season but what Matthews is doing as a 17 year old is amazing.

Defense would be a bit of an issue, especially in the early going, but if the Leafs were to win the draft lottery the influx of offense that could potentially be Marner + Nylander + Matthews would be absurd.

[Potvin29]

He's 17 and has 25 points in 22 games playing against men.  He's tied for 4th in goal scoring and is 14th in points.  He's one of 9 players at PPG or better in the Swiss league.

Is there a big difference between Matthews and Nylander's season last year?  Yeah, a year in age.  It doesn't devalue Nylander's season but what Matthews is doing as a 17 year old is amazing.

Defense would be a bit of an issue, especially in the early going, but if the Leafs were to win the draft lottery the influx of offense that could potentially be Marner + Nylander + Matthews would be absurd.

Matthews is actually 18.  Turned 18 on September 17, he missed being eligible for last year's draft by only a handful of days.

[Arn]

Does it matter that it's the Swiss league though? I mean how would Nylander look if he was playing there instead of the SHL?

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The top end Swiss league isn't too far off the SHL. For example HC Davos of Switzerland put SHL champions of 2 of the last 3 years Skelleftea out of the European Champions Hockey League competition in a 2 game Quarter Final series.

[caveman]

Watch for Matthews at the World Juniors....that should be a decent yardstick....

[Bender]

He's 17 and has 25 points in 22 games playing against men.  He's tied for 4th in goal scoring and is 14th in points.  He's one of 9 players at PPG or better in the Swiss league.

Is there a big difference between Matthews and Nylander's season last year?  Yeah, a year in age.  It doesn't devalue Nylander's season but what Matthews is doing as a 17 year old is amazing.

Defense would be a bit of an issue, especially in the early going, but if the Leafs were to win the draft lottery the influx of offense that could potentially be Marner + Nylander + Matthews would be absurd.

I don't disagree that he's one of the best prospects out there, I'm just having a hard time quantifying it. I get that he's playing in a men's league, but is it the equivalent of, say, putting up Patrick Kane-like OHL numbers? There obviously isn't an OHLe (like NHLe) but it would be nice haha.

[herman]

A nice primer to some of the projected top prospects: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/12/18/2016-nhl-draft-rankings-december-list/

A comment from the author:

I think it's more like there's a Tavares and a Hedman at the top and then a 4-5 guys that could be the Duchene

[CarltonTheBear]

Another good article/story on Sean Day, this time focusing on some of the off-ice issues that he's faced: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/ohl-steelheads-exceptional-player-sean-day-opens-up-about-life-off-the-ice/

"I remember watching my brother, Scott, play, and ever since then I wanted to be a hockey player," said Day. "He was my role model growing up. He's the reason I wear No. 4."

That simple story took a tragic turn in late October 2014. Scott was driving his pickup truck when it slammed into another vehicle just four miles from his family's home, killing a 62-year-old woman. The 23-year-old was charged by police, who found his blood-alcohol reading was twice the legal limit. Last summer, after pleading no contest, he was sentenced to prison for no less than 57 months and no more than 15 years.

...

His first season as a 15-year-old "exceptional" player in the OHL went reasonably well, and the second started off very well. But then came his brother's arrest. Since, his play has been inconsistent, he's occasionally left the Steelheads to go back home and his draft stock has dropped.

"I think that's what the scouts ... talk about me just not looking engaged. A lot of the time I wasn't," he said. "So, it's been tough. I went home for a little bit of the season and re-gathered my thoughts.

"That's why it's hard with my brother going away. He's the reason I play, and he's the reason I love [hockey], and he doesn't even get to see me play it anymore."

I had no idea about his brother, certainly rooting for him a little more now.

[Potvin29]

I read all the criticisms of him, and then I also read that scouts will watch him and he'll just effortlessly carry the puck up ice through the other team and gain the zone and it's just like....gah.  I'd be terrible at making tough drafting choices.

[Nik]

I had no idea about his brother, certainly rooting for him a little more now.

Not to make this a thing or anything but isn't that kind of a weird reason to root for someone?