Author Topic: 2018 Offseason Review  (Read 1566 times)

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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 03:14:49 PM »
Johnsson accepted his QO, could be a smart move by him to bet on having a big year and cashing in next summer.

Cap hit of $787.5k

Online herman

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 03:34:11 PM »

Willy's probably under half of that remaining space. Banked cap room towards the deadline would allow us to swing for some premium options if we so choose, or take on a heavy 1 year cap dump (Spezza 1 yr 7.5M?) for a good future asset.

Online Coco-puffs

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2018, 03:39:11 PM »

Willy's probably under half of that remaining space. Banked cap room towards the deadline would allow us to swing for some premium options if we so choose, or take on a heavy 1 year cap dump (Spezza 1 yr 7.5M?) for a good future asset.

We are not in a position to take on cap dumps.  I wish people would stop suggesting it.  It pushes us into bonus overages and that will be a problem next year.


Online herman

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2018, 03:49:25 PM »
We are not in a position to take on cap dumps.  I wish people would stop suggesting it.  It pushes us into bonus overages and that will be a problem next year.

I dunno man, that's a lot of room. Taking a mid-season cap dump (that expires at the end of this year) for an extra asset while leaving bonus cushion room is not impossible. Let's say Dallas is pretty close at the beginning of January and has a bead on a younger centre (e.g. Duchene) but wants to clear some today space. I'll take the remainder of Spezza's deal + fancy pick or prospect. Cap room gets banked over the course of the season.

Offline Frycer14

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2018, 04:09:12 PM »

I appreciate that Leafs fans have no real reason to not be thrilled with this off-season in light of the big move so to get that out of the way: Hooray for Tavares! He's big and good and handsome and so on.

But that said...wow. It's Tavares and a bunch of pieces who could charitably be called depth. I recognize that the cap issues mean that we shouldn't have expected much more but it does make you wonder what this team would look like if Tavares had grown up a Red Wings fan.

I can't help but agree. Unless Dubas was the difference between Tavares signing here and not, I'd call the offseason fall slightly to the side of underwhelming, to this point.

Online Coco-puffs

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2018, 04:30:47 PM »
We are not in a position to take on cap dumps.  I wish people would stop suggesting it.  It pushes us into bonus overages and that will be a problem next year.

I dunno man, that's a lot of room. Taking a mid-season cap dump (that expires at the end of this year) for an extra asset while leaving bonus cushion room is not impossible. Let's say Dallas is pretty close at the beginning of January and has a bead on a younger centre (e.g. Duchene) but wants to clear some today space. I'll take the remainder of Spezza's deal + fancy pick or prospect. Cap room gets banked over the course of the season.

Also, the 14.8 Million Jeffler indicated in his tweet is with a 19-man roster (11F, 6D, 2G).  Nylander getting signed only takes you to 20.  So add between 2 and 2.5 million to fill out the rest of the roster spots (ie, 1-2 F and 1-2 D).  Leaves 5.3 Million in space (3.7 of which we should leave available for bonuses)

By the deadline, yes, you could probably fit Spezza's contract in but by that time the Stars will probably have enough room to absorb a big contract as well since they won't be right up against the cap all year either.  (They have 8.3M in space with two RFA's who won't command a lot left to sign, plus roster filler.)  They won't need to dump Spezza at that time and certainly won't pay us in assets to take him then.

There are probably other examples you could find though, so sure... but wouldn't you rather use the extra cap space we've built up over the course of the season to ADD a d-man at the deadline instead of a cap dump???
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 04:32:23 PM by Coco-puffs »

Online herman

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2018, 04:42:46 PM »
Also, the 14.8 Million Jeffler indicated in his tweet is with a 19-man roster (11F, 6D, 2G).  Nylander getting signed only takes you to 20.  So add between 2 and 2.5 million to fill out the rest of the roster spots (ie, 1-2 F and 1-2 D).  Leaves 5.3 Million in space (3.7 of which we should leave available for bonuses)

Ah, I wasn't account for filling out the full roster there. Thanks!

Online Guilt Trip

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2018, 04:44:21 PM »

I appreciate that Leafs fans have no real reason to not be thrilled with this off-season in light of the big move so to get that out of the way: Hooray for Tavares! He's big and good and handsome and so on.

But that said...wow. It's Tavares and a bunch of pieces who could charitably be called depth. I recognize that the cap issues mean that we shouldn't have expected much more but it does make you wonder what this team would look like if Tavares had grown up a Red Wings fan.

I can't help but agree. Unless Dubas was the difference between Tavares signing here and not, I'd call the offseason fall slightly to the side of underwhelming, to this point.
Really? If he didn't sign here it would be underwhelming but HE DID!! I bet 30 other teams wished they'd had such a crappy off season and especially the 5 that were in on JT.

Online princedpw

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2018, 05:35:38 PM »
If we were taking a cognitive behavioral therapy class here, Id suggest that some of us were showing signs of discounting the positive.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2018, 06:57:52 PM »

I really don't think there's any disconnect between being happy the Leafs signed Tavares and looking at the other areas the team still needs to address.

Likewise, when for so long we've been sold this rebuild as part of a big, overarching plan it's fair to wonder about such a big part of it being something that was largely unexpected and almost entirely outside of their control(while still acknowledging the good job they did to convince him to sign here).
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Offline Frycer14

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2018, 07:37:01 PM »
If we were taking a cognitive behavioral therapy class here, Id suggest that some of us were showing signs of discounting the positive.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm still in disbelief that Tavares is a leaf. I'm over the moon, like everyone else here.... already bought a shirt.

But I look at the rest of the list from herman's mail, and can't help but feel if Lou was still sitting in the chair and accomplished the same, there wouldn't be quite the same reaction. The big 3 are still not extended, the Johnsson deal isn't to my liking, at least, although to some folks' point, it might have been the only option, and the defense... well, I was hoping for an addition.

Still time, I know.

Online herman

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2018, 11:10:53 PM »
It's okay to enjoy a windfall. I can't remember where I posted it earlier last season, but I was hoping we'd take a major swing at Tavares, rather than spend assets on maybe picking up up Doughty/Karlsson because I believe overwhelming forward depth supported by mobile defense is the way to go. High scoring defensemen are as cap heavy as 1Cs but not as influential in scoring (even though they play more minutes).

Pretty sure if Lou was in the big chair we'd still be sporting Martin and Komarov in the lineup, at least.

Also, Marincin and Holl are not insubstantial upgrades from Polak and (tired) Hainsey. The plan has always been to build through the draft and maximize development and then make trades with the asset value. The list of players who were scrap heap pick ups that have turned into players of interest continues to balloon. Tavares was successfully wooed on the basis of that plan and the people in place; the good fortune was the self-roshambo the Islanders pulled off.

I don't know that they'll do this, but shifting Gardiner to the top pair (Gardiner-Rielly) is a huge step up for the defense corps, as the bottom four is easily rounded out with some combination of Dermott, Marincin, Rosen, Hainsey, Holl, Carrick, Zaitsev, Ozhiganov.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 11:38:42 PM by herman »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2018, 12:08:51 AM »
Also, Marincin and Holl are not insubstantial upgrades from Polak and (tired) Hainsey. The plan has always been to build through the draft and maximize development and then make trades with the asset value. The list of players who were scrap heap pick ups that have turned into players of interest continues to balloon. Tavares was successfully wooed on the basis of that plan and the people in place; the good fortune was the self-roshambo the Islanders pulled off.

Most of what I read seemed to think that Tavares was won over on the basis of playing with the elite talent the Leafs drafted in the top 10, not the trash heap AHL depth that has yet to yield anything resembling a significant NHL contributor.

But kudos on trying to sell Jake Gardiner as being a significant upgrade on Jake Gardiner.
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Online Bullfrog

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #28 on: July 14, 2018, 08:16:15 AM »
I'm with Nik on this one. I think herman has a bit too rosy of an outlook on our AHL players.

I'm not as down on Zaitsev as most are, but that's a pretty terrible bottom four defense if Gardiner-Rielly are the top pair.

I really don't understand the love for Holl. Sure he's been very good on the Marlies, but he's only played two NHL games and will be almost 27 years old when the season starts (26.75 years). And Marincin; I've been pulling for him, but he's similar to Holl, in that he's 26 years old and if he hasn't made it by now, chances are slim. I still think he can be a consistent NHLer, but he's a bottom pairing guy.

We really don't know what we're getting in Ozhiganov. Free agents like Rosen, Borgman, and Zaitsev even tend to be massively over-hyped.

Online herman

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2018, 09:29:19 AM »
Most of what I read seemed to think that Tavares was won over on the basis of playing with the elite talent the Leafs drafted in the top 10, not the trash heap AHL depth that has yet to yield anything resembling a significant NHL contributor.

I get what you're saying here with the NHL track records being short/non-existent/replacement level; I think in a Cap system, the path to success is to pick up a defenseman on the cheap (draft, import free-agency, trade throw-in) before they start to establish a record and build them up to the point they have value. Obviously a top 10- pick helps a lot, but top 10 defensemen picks are not nearly as strong an indicator of talent as it is for forwards.

I'm not as down on Zaitsev as most are, but that's a pretty terrible bottom four defense if Gardiner-Rielly are the top pair.

I really don't understand the love for Holl. Sure he's been very good on the Marlies, but he's only played two NHL games and will be almost 27 years old when the season starts (26.75 years). And Marincin; I've been pulling for him, but he's similar to Holl, in that he's 26 years old and if he hasn't made it by now, chances are slim. I still think he can be a consistent NHLer, but he's a bottom pairing guy.

We really don't know what we're getting in Ozhiganov. Free agents like Rosen, Borgman, and Zaitsev even tend to be massively over-hyped.

Time and opportunity and the right development path are the keys to turning longshots into layups. Ellis and Eckholm were both 2009 picks (1st, 4th) and they both took about 5-6 years to establish themselves. What we have now that we didn't have before are a burgeoning pool of prospects and options that are on the cusp (1-2 years) of landing full time. Even if they don't, they're league-minimum cap hits rounding out the bottom of our lineup with already 2-3 years of familiarity with our system. Maybe a couple of them turn into core players (Dermott, Liljegren).

There's a marked difference in players like Marincin, Rosen, Dermott, Holl, and even Liljegren once they've had Marlie time. Seeing as how the program just started 4 years ago, there is a harvest coming.

I haven't dug into the numbers too thoroughly yet, but regarding age-curves and primes, I think there are different peaks and durations of peak performance for every player, and to apply a general template to all of them is overlooking opportunity. Top flight picks do peak and sustain it pretty much for all of their 20s, but that is so, so rare. The art is in identifying the player profiles that can be developed to their peaks and timing the system to have a constant flow of peaking players land with the big team, and contract them for your projected length of peak performance.

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Re: 2018 Offseason Review
« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2018, 09:29:19 AM »