Author Topic: The Matthews Extension  (Read 4070 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online CarltonTheBear

  • Global Moderator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 21529
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2018, 10:17:33 AM »
Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

Online Guru Tugginmypuddah

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 2622
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2018, 10:22:57 AM »
Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I think the last year before the salary cap came in, the Leafs spent almost $70 million on player salaries.  I think they could spend double that today and still be flush with cash. 

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 23429
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2018, 10:26:46 AM »
im puzzling over whether the numbers are reasonable (though I understand they are ballpark to give us the idea)

10.5/year for 7 (73.5)
11.5/year for 8 (92)

The fact that 1 extra year gives him 18.5 million more doesnt really seem to make sense (to me).  At least, if Im Matthews, I definitely take the 92 and if Im the leafs, I definitely offer only 7 for 73.5.

Perhaps the first AAV needs to be a little higher, or the second a little lower?

Right, so my thinking on this was maybe that Matthews would prefer the slightly shorter term so that maybe he could hit UFA while still in his 20's(technically after an 8 year deal he'd still be 29 but would turn 30 before the season started).

So basically it would be a trade-off. The slightly shorter term Matthews wants but at a more team friendly rate or the term the team wants and a AAV Matthews is happier with.

As to the actual numbers I don't think it's that big a discrepancy. If you assume, and I think it's safe to, that regardless of whether Matthews signs a 7 or 8 year deal we'd still want him on the team 8 years from now then it works out pretty fairly.

If we assume a 5% annual cap growth then in year one of his new deal 11.5 amounts to roughly 12.5% of the cap. In year 8 though, when the cap could be as high as 117.5 million a similar % of the cap would amount to 15 million or so(14.7 I think).

So my thinking is that how much Matthews would get over the next 8 years would either be:

10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 15

Or just 8 years of 11.5. The difference, money wise, is only 3.5 million. And, again, that's assuming he doesn't want an increased % of the cap on his 3rd deal(which seems unlikely, Tavares' cap % went from 8.5 on his 2nd deal to 13.8 on his 3rd).

So, to my mind, the difference in how much the Leafs would actually pay him over the course of 8 years is pretty small. You're effectively giving him a bonus of a couple million dollars for buying an extra free agent year at the lower rate.

Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 23429
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2018, 10:29:19 AM »
Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I'm no fancy businessman or anything but I think when you're dealing with this kind of money operating cash wouldn't be paid out of pocket. I'm guessing that if Rogers and Bell calls up whoever does their banking and says "We need 60 million on July 1st instead of spread out over the year" then they can probably swing that credit without a big hassle.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Online CarltonTheBear

  • Global Moderator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 21529
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2018, 10:37:17 AM »
Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I'm no fancy businessman or anything but I think when you're dealing with this kind of money operating cash wouldn't be paid out of pocket. I'm guessing that if Rogers and Bell calls up whoever does their banking and says "We need 60 million on July 1st instead of spread out over the year" then they can probably swing that credit without a big hassle.

Yeah, that makes sense. Ok massive signing bonuses for everyone then!

Online Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 3982
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2018, 10:39:44 AM »
Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I'm no fancy businessman or anything but I think when you're dealing with this kind of money operating cash wouldn't be paid out of pocket. I'm guessing that if Rogers and Bell calls up whoever does their banking and says "We need 60 million on July 1st instead of spread out over the year" then they can probably swing that credit without a big hassle.

I'd guess they've got enough retained earnings in that company to cover anything like this.  I don't know for sure how much they dividend out, but I'd guess they've got a healthy balance sheet that wouldn't necessitate borrowing to cover bonuses like these.

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 23429
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2018, 10:47:12 AM »
I'd guess they've got enough retained earnings in that company to cover anything like this.  I don't know for sure how much they dividend out, but I'd guess they've got a healthy balance sheet that wouldn't necessitate borrowing to cover bonuses like these.

I'm sure that's right but I guess my confusion is how a company like MLSE, who isn't publicly traded, works in that capacity. Again, excuse my ignorance but I would have figured that whatever money comes in just gets filtered up into ownership while the day to day financial operations aren't done out of some big jointly held MLSE bank account.

But again, I'm no fancy businessman.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Online Guru Tugginmypuddah

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 2622
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2018, 10:48:21 AM »
I like to imagine Larry Tanenbaum moseying down to the local MoneyMart asking for a cash advance. 

Offline Zee

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 9089
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2018, 10:50:03 AM »
I like to imagine Larry Tanenbaum moseying down to the local MoneyMart asking for a cash advance.
"How would you like that Mr Tanenbaum? In 100 dollar bills or 20s?"

"Well it's hard to break 100s let's make it 20s"

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 23429
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #24 on: July 04, 2018, 08:50:53 AM »
I hear you but I don't think the Leafs would try to mess around with squeezing Matthews due to sheer numbers being down because of injury. They know he's the golden goose and will pay him accordingly. I don't think it'll be a difficult negotiation at all. He'll be more than Eichel, less than McDavid.

Thing is, you may be coming at that from the perspective of a Leafs fan who wants a relatively team friendly deal. I can absolutely see how Toronto would make the argument that 11 or 11.5 is the "right" place for Matthews in the league's salary structure.

Thing is, I can also see how Matthews' representation might make the argument that the "right" place for Matthews in the league's salary structure might be more like 12.5 or 13 million a year. Especially if he goes out and has a Richard winning season.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Zee

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 9089
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2018, 09:09:55 AM »
I hear you but I don't think the Leafs would try to mess around with squeezing Matthews due to sheer numbers being down because of injury. They know he's the golden goose and will pay him accordingly. I don't think it'll be a difficult negotiation at all. He'll be more than Eichel, less than McDavid.

Thing is, you may be coming at that from the perspective of a Leafs fan who wants a relatively team friendly deal. I can absolutely see how Toronto would make the argument that 11 or 11.5 is the "right" place for Matthews in the league's salary structure.

Thing is, I can also see how Matthews' representation might make the argument that the "right" place for Matthews in the league's salary structure might be more like 12.5 or 13 million a year. Especially if he goes out and has a Richard winning season.

I don't see what basis they can claim he should make more than McDavid.  Hart trophy, Art Ross trophy, Ted Lindsay trophy.  All Matthews has is the Calder.   McDavid has led the NHL in scoring the past 2 seasons so I can't see how he's a comparable.

Eichel comparison you can clearly see that Matthews is ahead, that's why I suggested more than Eichel but less than McDavid.

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 23429
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #26 on: July 04, 2018, 09:26:16 AM »
I don't see what basis they can claim he should make more than McDavid.  Hart trophy, Art Ross trophy, Ted Lindsay trophy.  All Matthews has is the Calder.   McDavid has led the NHL in scoring the past 2 seasons so I can't see how he's a comparable.

Well, first of all like I said that's why they may prefer to have this conversation after Matthews has another healthy year and he potentially adds some hardware to his resume as well.

But even then, the argument you're making isn't "Matthews deserves to make more than McDavid" but rather "What is Auston Matthews worth?" or, maybe even more importantly, "What is Auston Matthews worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs?". If I'm negotiating a contract for Matthews on his behalf then McDavid signing an under-market contract in Edmonton might be a positive reflection on who McDavid is as a person but it's not going to be the definitive issue in answering that question.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2018, 09:28:54 AM by Nik the Trik »
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Zee

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 9089
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #27 on: July 04, 2018, 09:35:42 AM »
I don't see what basis they can claim he should make more than McDavid.  Hart trophy, Art Ross trophy, Ted Lindsay trophy.  All Matthews has is the Calder.   McDavid has led the NHL in scoring the past 2 seasons so I can't see how he's a comparable.

Well, first of all like I said that's why they may prefer to have this conversation after Matthews has another healthy year and he potentially adds some hardware to his resume as well.

But even then, the argument you're making isn't "Matthews deserves to make more than McDavid" but rather "What is Auston Matthews worth?" or, maybe even more importantly, "What is Auston Matthews worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs?". If I'm negotiating a contract for Matthews on his behalf then McDavid signing an under-market contract in Edmonton might be a positive reflection on who McDavid is as a person but it's not going to be the definitive issue in answering that question.

But I thought when these types of contracts are worked out it's all about comparables around the league.   If you look at McDavid's first 2 seasons and Matthews first 2 seasons, both players missed games due to injury, McDavid played 45 in one season, Matthews 62 in one of his.  McDavid was always over a point a game player, Matthews has never been.

Matthews to Eichel is a good comparison as they both played almost the exact number of games after 2 seasons, Eichel played 142, Matthews 144 and Auston was ahead of Eichel in points production over that time.

For your question "What is Auston Matthews worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs?", he's not worth so much that he forces the Leafs to not be able to field a competitive team around him.  Is he worth enough to the Leafs to be the highest paid Leaf?  I say yes, so now that means anything over $11M. 

If he demands to be the highest paid player in the league, there's no way the Leafs would be able to keep this current roster together, and that would be to the detriment of both Matthews and the Leafs.  I think both parties will realize this.   They'll pay him as the highest salary, but it'll probably be in the $11.5M range which I think is more than fair.

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 23429
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #28 on: July 04, 2018, 09:46:28 AM »
But I thought when these types of contracts are worked out it's all about comparables around the league.   If you look at McDavid's first 2 seasons and Matthews first 2 seasons, both players missed games due to injury, McDavid played 45 in one season, Matthews 62 in one of his.  McDavid was always over a point a game player, Matthews has never been.

Matthews was a point per game player last year.

And do comparables sometimes inform these contracts? Yes, but they're not the be all and end all. Is John Tavares better than Sidney Crosby? No. Did the Leafs just agree to pay Tavares more than Sidney Crosby? Yes.

But if McDavid has chosen to be very nice to Edmonton and signed for 9 million a year, does that mean all other high value RFA's are obligated to follow that structure? Pretty clearly not. 

For your question "What is Auston Matthews worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs?", he's not worth so much that he forces the Leafs to not be able to field a competitive team around him.  Is he worth enough to the Leafs to be the highest paid Leaf?  I say yes, so now that means anything over $11M.

I don't think the difference between Matthews at 11.5 million and Matthews at 13 million is the difference between "being able to field a competitive team" and not. Basically it's the difference between the team as it currently stands and replacing Brown or Hyman with a minimum salary player. That's not a massive difference in how good the team will be. 

If he demands to be the highest paid player in the league, there's no way the Leafs would be able to keep this current roster together, and that would be to the detriment of both Matthews and the Leafs.  I think both parties will realize this.   They'll pay him as the highest salary, but it'll probably be in the $11.5M range which I think is more than fair.

I certainly hope so. But if Matthews comes in and says his fair value is closer to the higher end of things then I think he's still right and I think the Leafs would still probably give it to him.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Zee

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 9089
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #29 on: July 04, 2018, 10:09:41 AM »
But I thought when these types of contracts are worked out it's all about comparables around the league.   If you look at McDavid's first 2 seasons and Matthews first 2 seasons, both players missed games due to injury, McDavid played 45 in one season, Matthews 62 in one of his.  McDavid was always over a point a game player, Matthews has never been.

Matthews was a point per game player last year.

And do comparables sometimes inform these contracts? Yes, but they're not the be all and end all. Is John Tavares better than Sidney Crosby? No. Did the Leafs just agree to pay Tavares more than Sidney Crosby? Yes.

But if McDavid has chosen to be very nice to Edmonton and signed for 9 million a year, does that mean all other high value RFA's are obligated to follow that structure? Pretty clearly not. 

For your question "What is Auston Matthews worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs?", he's not worth so much that he forces the Leafs to not be able to field a competitive team around him.  Is he worth enough to the Leafs to be the highest paid Leaf?  I say yes, so now that means anything over $11M.

I don't think the difference between Matthews at 11.5 million and Matthews at 13 million is the difference between "being able to field a competitive team" and not. Basically it's the difference between the team as it currently stands and replacing Brown or Hyman with a minimum salary player. That's not a massive difference in how good the team will be. 

If he demands to be the highest paid player in the league, there's no way the Leafs would be able to keep this current roster together, and that would be to the detriment of both Matthews and the Leafs.  I think both parties will realize this.   They'll pay him as the highest salary, but it'll probably be in the $11.5M range which I think is more than fair.

I certainly hope so. But if Matthews comes in and says his fair value is closer to the higher end of things then I think he's still right and I think the Leafs would still probably give it to him.

Are you serious with the Crosby / Tavares comparison?  Crosby signed a 12 year contract back in 2012, pre-lockout.  This is 6 years later when the cap has gone up, and player salaries all have gone up as well.  His salary doesn't indicate that the Leafs think he's "better" than Crosby, only that salaries have gone up, and Tavares is being paid close to what current market value is.  Also, Crosby took that "team discount" because they were able to spread it over 12 years, so his salaries in the first few years was really high, and then tailed off as he gets into his late 30s which was able to bring the cap hit down to his magical "8.7" number.

McDavid and Eichel signed their extensions last season, so it's far easier to compare the 3 players, and what the fair market value should be for each.

In the end you hope that there are reasonable people during the negotiations, Matthews camp has a strong case to say he should be the highest paid Leaf player, but still has to stay within the overall team cap structure.  Taking a higher salary which forces the Leafs to replace a Brown or Hyman with a minimum salary player as you suggested isn't good for the team, and you would hope that the Matthews camp realizes this. 

Not paying Matthews over $12M isn't a slight against the player at all, it's just an acknowledgement of the salary cap structure and how best to build a winning team within that structure.

TMLfans.ca

Re: The Matthews Extension
« Reply #29 on: July 04, 2018, 10:09:41 AM »