Author Topic: Armchair GM 2018-2019  (Read 18987 times)

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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #345 on: June 20, 2018, 08:38:25 AM »
True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs.

Which, you know, isn't the worst thing in the world. The modern NHL doesn't have the super teams it used to. There are no Avs or Red Wings that are multiple HOFers deep at the key positions any more. If the 2003 Leafs were dropped into the modern NHL they'd have a puncher's chance.

When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.
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Offline mr grieves

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #346 on: June 20, 2018, 11:21:24 AM »
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

I sort of came to worry about this as well, but I can't say the Leafs really paid the price I thought they would. Get a proven goalie to keep you out of the basement, and you'll miss out on the high pick needed to get a defenseman with a really high ceiling... and then they landed Liljegren, who had been ranked in the top 5 and seems to have all the skill level to be what we need. So, I don't know.

Maybe without Andersen they wouldn't've held on to the UFAs, and so had another 2 or 3 picks in the 20-60 range. But those guys wouldn't be ready for a years, and no one assessing whether they were year-in, year-out favorites would be looking at them. That judgment would be made on the core assembled with those high picks: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Liljegren.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #347 on: June 20, 2018, 12:14:27 PM »
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

You only thought that because you've been influenced by the greatest thinkers of our time:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #348 on: June 20, 2018, 12:20:12 PM »
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

You only thought that because you've been influenced by the greatest thinkers of our time:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0

And all this time I was trying not to be a sheeple.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #349 on: June 20, 2018, 12:28:04 PM »
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

I sort of came to worry about this as well, but I can't say the Leafs really paid the price I thought they would. Get a proven goalie to keep you out of the basement, and you'll miss out on the high pick needed to get a defenseman with a really high ceiling... and then they landed Liljegren, who had been ranked in the top 5 and seems to have all the skill level to be what we need. So, I don't know.

Maybe without Andersen they wouldn't've held on to the UFAs, and so had another 2 or 3 picks in the 20-60 range. But those guys wouldn't be ready for a years, and no one assessing whether they were year-in, year-out favorites would be looking at them. That judgment would be made on the core assembled with those high picks: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Liljegren.

I think the issue is that when you have multiple top five picks, chances are you can get a surefire, top end player at a position.  You remove the whole "seems to be" from the equation.  The minute you start saying "if" is where the problems start.  That when you have to hope that things pan out, and if they don't pan out, that's when you are in trouble.  You want to give yourself the highest chance that you can get the things that you need to be competitive. 

It's like the Phil Kessel years, where people would say that the way the Leafs were going to address their first line center problems were by drafting Pavel Datsyuk in the 6th round.  That just doesn't happen with a high frequency, so you can't really count on it.  Did the Leafs draft a bonafide first line center in those years in the later rounds?  No.  Do you know where the Leafs got a legitimate first line center from?  The 1st overall pick.

So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?     
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Offline skrackle

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #350 on: June 20, 2018, 01:23:27 PM »
When the Leafs hired Lou Lamoriello, they started diverting from Shanahan's talk of patience, rebuilding properly etc. Yes, Lamoriello did get rid of Dion Phaneuf and thank you Lou for that. But that's when the "we found ourselves further ahead than we thought we'd be" talk started.

Are the Leafs further ahead than pre-Lamoriello? Well, you'd have to say yes, considering they went from last overall to a franchise record regular season points total in a couple of seasons. In too many ways though, they jumped the gun on finishing the rebuild. They will no longer get high draft picks by being a bad team. UFAs? Tavares would be nice, but I wouldn't be betting on him signing with the Leafs. They haven't built enough depth to make a big trade without weakening the team in another area.

I can't see Frederic Andersen as the long term answer in goal. He's inconsistent; wildly so at times, but he's often hung out to dry by poor defensive play. The defense-roster and team play- needs so much work. Beyond that, the Leafs just don't seem like a team that's built for the playoffs.

They do seem like a team that was fortunate to draft a few highly skilled offensive players. You need a few of those to win, so that's good. I do still have optimism that this team can do something, but Dubas has his work cut out.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #351 on: June 20, 2018, 01:28:45 PM »
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

I'm just not convinced rushing things really cost them that player who has greater odds of panning out to fill a need. Would the Leafs be much closer if they'd tanked in 2017 and got Cale Makar or Miro Heiskanen instead of Liljegren?

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #352 on: June 20, 2018, 01:44:49 PM »
Are the Leafs further ahead than pre-Lamoriello? Well, you'd have to say yes, considering they went from last overall to a franchise record regular season points total in a couple of seasons. In too many ways though, they jumped the gun on finishing the rebuild. They will no longer get high draft picks by being a bad team. UFAs? Tavares would be nice, but I wouldn't be betting on him signing with the Leafs. They haven't built enough depth to make a big trade without weakening the team in another area.

Andersen contributed to their emerging from the basement sooner than you'd like, but so did the decade or so getting pretty high picks. I've said this elsewhere, but there really aren't many teams that drafted as high and for as long as the Leafs did -- and with relatively few busts (none if you consider we turned a bust into a 30-goal winger). It's possible that all those high picks just meant that they weren't bad enough to pick top 5 again after they got Matthews. Of course, that might doom us to be being the Caps (until last week) or San Jose.

Offline cabber24

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #353 on: June 20, 2018, 02:03:20 PM »
What's a realistic package for Karlsson? Nylander, a first and second round pick? I would flip a lot of assets for a Doughty or a Karlsson.

I would prefer signing them as UFA but these guys will likely be resigned or traded before it comes to that.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #354 on: June 20, 2018, 06:53:00 PM »
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

And even then, I think it's important to recognize what building up assets can mean for a club. So instead on focusing if the team would be any closer if they had a handful of extra 1sts and 2nds or the difference between Liljegren and Heiskanen, the difference is between being asset-rich and being asset-poor as they sort of are now.

I've made the point before but if a genuine bonafide #1 defenseman decided he wanted to be traded tomorrow, I don't think the Leafs have the asset to be in on that chase if they had to be the highest bidder(presuming they didn't want to subtract from their current roster). If they had a bunch of surplus high ceiling 1sts and 2nds to go along with a recent #3 pick though...?
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Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #355 on: June 21, 2018, 06:37:02 AM »
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

And even then, I think it's important to recognize what building up assets can mean for a club. So instead on focusing if the team would be any closer if they had a handful of extra 1sts and 2nds or the difference between Liljegren and Heiskanen, the difference is between being asset-rich and being asset-poor as they sort of are now.

I've made the point before but if a genuine bonafide #1 defenseman decided he wanted to be traded tomorrow, I don't think the Leafs have the asset to be in on that chase if they had to be the highest bidder(presuming they didn't want to subtract from their current roster). If they had a bunch of surplus high ceiling 1sts and 2nds to go along with a recent #3 pick though...?

I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #356 on: June 21, 2018, 07:44:06 AM »
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.
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Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #357 on: June 21, 2018, 09:23:30 AM »
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.

I just don't think #1's get moved too often. I mean a number one on any team could be moved if they're say, Dion Phaneuf, but in reality he's not a #1.

I just don't know that prospects or draft picks get it done. I've been wrong before. Ask my wife.

Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #358 on: June 21, 2018, 09:41:05 AM »
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.

Most of the trades you are referencing might be trade deadline deals for guys with little term left though.  Not often do really high-end defensemen get traded for futures in the off-season.  The Dougie Hamilton trade is probably the only recent example you could pull out.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #359 on: June 21, 2018, 07:15:30 PM »
Most of the trades you are referencing might be trade deadline deals for guys with little term left though.  Not often do really high-end defensemen get traded for futures in the off-season.  The Dougie Hamilton trade is probably the only recent example you could pull out.

High-end defensemen don't get traded much full-stop. So I'm not saying it's necessarily an inevitable but even if we downgrade the requirements I think the point still stands. If a high value defenseman becomes available and a team is looking for futures, it's better to be asset-rich.
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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #359 on: June 21, 2018, 07:15:30 PM »