Author Topic: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050  (Read 2306 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 11361
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #150 on: January 22, 2018, 10:49:04 PM »
It was the bottom of the line-up that literally cost the team the win. That's disappointing because it's such an easy position on the team to upgrade.

I've been mulling this, obviously, and harping on it a bit in previous seasons.

While I would love to have speed all the way through the lineup, and players that don't handle the puck like live grenades all the time, at this point, I don't think the Leafs see enough value in spending to upgrade the bottom, or at the minimum turning over assets to do so.

Parts to upgrade: Martin, Komarov, Polak, Gauthier/Moore
Internally, we already have players better than them, except for Gauthier/Moore, which is a bit of a black hole unless you really lean into playing the 4th line offensively and just take your chances without a 'shutdown' safety net. All the upgrades are currently better served playing key minutes with the Marlies and gunning for a championship down there, even though they are clearly NHL-caliber players, simply because the 4th line 10 minutes are not developmentally helpful.

Reactionary internal upgrades also means trading those players above for the sake of space, rather than because there is a reasonable return. Coupled with these upgrade players getting bum minutes (most likely) and losing assets for nothing, there's a bit more value in riding them out until closer to the deadline to see what other teams are after.

At the deadline though, if anything north of a 4 rder is in the conversation, I will be happy to take that addition by subtraction on those above players, and liquidating Bozak and JvR as well to form the basis of upgrade trades at C and maybe D. I'm pretty comfortable with Dermott playing bottom-4 minutes, so our focus really should be on getting a speedy centre (or two) with a defensive pedigree. It'd be nice to see the Front Office move a bit more ruthlessly.

Offline Guilt Trip

  • Rookie
  • ***
  • Posts: 693
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #151 on: January 22, 2018, 11:32:50 PM »
Another uninspiring man advantage for Marleau. And Matthews with an ugly third period.

Babcock should have called a timeout and gotten the better power play unit out.
Matthews cost them the game
Seriously? Where was Dermott going? Dermott stays where he's supposed to be and it's a non issue. That's why Matthews let up because Dermott was there but then for whatever reason decided to go help check the covered man..Weird..
How about Marner on the Borg cough up? Nice effort.

Offline Hobbes

  • Prospect
  • *
  • Posts: 83
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #152 on: January 23, 2018, 07:41:01 AM »
...For some reason he has it in his head that the third pairing plays with the fourth line so that’s what we get.
The problem is if you roll out the top pair or 2nd pair, you know the next guys coming over the boards are the other team's top line and you don't want you best pairing gassed. If the bottom pair sucks, get a better bottom pair. If the bottom line sucks, get a better bottom line. Both sides typically do the same thing so mostly it's whether your crappiest players are better or worse than the other team's crappiest players.

And in this game, Marner was playing on the 4th line for much of the night and they were 31%. I get that Martin isn't the best player in the universe but he didn't seem to be all that much of an issue last night.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline Coco-puffs

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1262
  • TMLfans Rocks!
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #153 on: January 23, 2018, 09:45:27 AM »
Voluntarily putting Gauthier and Polak out against the MacKinnon line, good coaching.

I know I'm responding to a post from about 10 pages ago, but I often watch the game in non-realtime (getting daughter to bed etc) and like reading this thread the next day.

Anyways:  I'm not sure what else you expect after 2.5 mins of Leafs power play:

1.  Avs are going to put their top line out, as they've been off the ice for most of the PK (except Landeskog, who gets spot duty)
2.  8 of our forwards have just split the last 2.5 mins of ice-time, with Gauthier, Hyman, Komarov, and Martin the freshest bodies on forward.  PP ends and almost always the line of the 3 former players comes out. 
3.  Usually your two offensive D-men have also just been on the PP (Gardiner and Rielly/Carrick).  Hainsey for sure is gonna be on after the PP ends... but I do think Polak is a terrible choice to join him.  Should have been Dermott.




Offline wnc096

  • Marlie
  • **
  • Posts: 205
  • TMLfans Newbie
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #154 on: January 23, 2018, 11:06:05 AM »
Another uninspiring man advantage for Marleau. And Matthews with an ugly third period.

Babcock should have called a timeout and gotten the better power play unit out.
Matthews cost them the game
Seriously? Where was Dermott going? Dermott stays where he's supposed to be and it's a non issue. That's why Matthews let up because Dermott was there but then for whatever reason decided to go help check the covered man..Weird..
How about Marner on the Borg cough up? Nice effort.

Its the hyperbole of whats kosher other players.  if that was Komarov or Martin on that back-check instead of Matthews, they would be getting lambasted

Offline Guilt Trip

  • Rookie
  • ***
  • Posts: 693
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #155 on: January 23, 2018, 12:18:01 PM »
Another uninspiring man advantage for Marleau. And Matthews with an ugly third period.

Babcock should have called a timeout and gotten the better power play unit out.
Matthews cost them the game
Seriously? Where was Dermott going? Dermott stays where he's supposed to be and it's a non issue. That's why Matthews let up because Dermott was there but then for whatever reason decided to go help check the covered man..Weird..
How about Marner on the Borg cough up? Nice effort.

 if that was Komarov or Martin on that back-check instead of Matthews, they would be getting lambasted
Maybe with you but not me. I was simply responding to the line that Matthews cost us the game. That simply isn't true. Could Matthews have kept going? Sure, but there was no need with Dermott there.

Offline Bullfrog

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4398
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #156 on: January 23, 2018, 01:12:49 PM »
...

Parts to upgrade: Martin, Komarov, Polak, Gauthier/Moore
Internally, we already have players better than them, except for Gauthier/Moore, which is a bit of a black hole unless you really lean into playing the 4th line offensively and just take your chances without a 'shutdown' safety net. All the upgrades are currently better served playing key minutes with the Marlies and gunning for a championship down there, even though they are clearly NHL-caliber players, simply because the 4th line 10 minutes are not developmentally helpful.

...

That's based on a false premise though, that a non-offensive line is somehow good in a shutdown role. I mean, it could be true, but there's no correlation between being good on offense and bad on defense. No true shutdown line has Matt Martin on it.

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 11361
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #157 on: January 23, 2018, 01:37:48 PM »
...

Parts to upgrade: Martin, Komarov, Polak, Gauthier/Moore
Internally, we already have players better than them, except for Gauthier/Moore, which is a bit of a black hole unless you really lean into playing the 4th line offensively and just take your chances without a 'shutdown' safety net. All the upgrades are currently better served playing key minutes with the Marlies and gunning for a championship down there, even though they are clearly NHL-caliber players, simply because the 4th line 10 minutes are not developmentally helpful.

...

That's based on a false premise though, that a non-offensive line is somehow good in a shutdown role. I mean, it could be true, but there's no correlation between being good on offense and bad on defense. No true shutdown line has Matt Martin on it.

I agree with you that a zero-offense line, regardless of their defensive ability, is just asking for trouble and it's a problem I've wondered about in previous seasons, and basically at the advent of Martin on our lineup.

All I'm saying is that the cost to nominally upgrade the dregs of our lineup is higher than the benefit it would yield. Hockey is still a strong-link game, so the deltas between this 4th line and a differently composed one but built on the same Babcock premise of minimal event hockey, is not going to be meaningful enough to spend on.

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Global Moderator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 21325
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #158 on: January 23, 2018, 01:39:52 PM »
Hockey is still a strong-link game, so the deltas between this 4th line and a differently composed one but built on the same Babcock premise of minimal event hockey, is not going to be meaningful enough to spend on.

I don't understand what you mean by having to "spend" to get a better 4th line. We already have Moore-Marner/Brown. Add any of Leivo/Kapanen/Soshnikov once he gets healthy (;););)), and you're there. An upgrade on Moore would be ok but he's a perfectly capable 4C.

I don't even think our 4th line of Martin-Moore-whoever was that much of a problem prior to Gauthier coming in. It was scoring at a reasonable rate and keeping the shot-shares close. The Goat really tanked it.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2018, 01:45:04 PM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline Bullfrog

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4398
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #159 on: January 23, 2018, 01:52:23 PM »
...

Parts to upgrade: Martin, Komarov, Polak, Gauthier/Moore
Internally, we already have players better than them, except for Gauthier/Moore, which is a bit of a black hole unless you really lean into playing the 4th line offensively and just take your chances without a 'shutdown' safety net. All the upgrades are currently better served playing key minutes with the Marlies and gunning for a championship down there, even though they are clearly NHL-caliber players, simply because the 4th line 10 minutes are not developmentally helpful.

...

That's based on a false premise though, that a non-offensive line is somehow good in a shutdown role. I mean, it could be true, but there's no correlation between being good on offense and bad on defense. No true shutdown line has Matt Martin on it.

I agree with you that a zero-offense line, regardless of their defensive ability, is just asking for trouble and it's a problem I've wondered about in previous seasons, and basically at the advent of Martin on our lineup.

All I'm saying is that the cost to nominally upgrade the dregs of our lineup is higher than the benefit it would yield. Hockey is still a strong-link game, so the deltas between this 4th line and a differently composed one but built on the same Babcock premise of minimal event hockey, is not going to be meaningful enough to spend on.

I agree with you there, but I also agree with CtB's follow-up. The cost is nothing at this point. Last night wasn't a minimal event experience for the 4th line.

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 11361
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #160 on: January 23, 2018, 01:56:04 PM »
Hockey is still a strong-link game, so the deltas between this 4th line and a differently composed one but built on the same Babcock premise of minimal event hockey, is not going to be meaningful enough to spend on.

I don't understand what you mean by having to "spend" to get a better 4th line. We already have Moore-Marner/Brown. Add any of Leivo/Kapanen/Soshnikov once he gets healthy (;););)), and you're there. An upgrade on Moore would be ok but he's a perfectly capable 4C.

I don't even think our 4th line of Martin-Moore-whoever was that much of a problem prior to Gauthier coming in. It was scoring at a reasonable rate and keeping the shot-shares close. The Goat really tanked it.

There's a a potential asset loss to cramming all those guys into the roster. We've got some injuries now, but when we don't, either the exempt players get loaned, a vet gets waived, or someone gets traded. I don't think those trades will result in much at this moment, but they probably get picked up on waivers. It's a freed up contract slot, but it's also the team waiving a guy the coach has been asking them to emulate the habits of for the past two years. Most would say, then don't ask players to emulate them... *shrug* this is where we are already.

Offline Hobbes

  • Prospect
  • *
  • Posts: 83
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #161 on: January 23, 2018, 01:58:43 PM »
Hockey is still a strong-link game, so the deltas between this 4th line and a differently composed one but built on the same Babcock premise of minimal event hockey, is not going to be meaningful enough to spend on.

I don't understand what you mean by having to "spend" to get a better 4th line. We already have Moore-Marner/Brown. Add any of Leivo/Kapanen/Soshnikov once he gets healthy (;););)), and you're there. An upgrade on Moore would be ok but he's a perfectly capable 4C.

I don't even think our 4th line of Martin-Moore-whoever was that much of a problem prior to Gauthier coming in. It was scoring at a reasonable rate and keeping the shot-shares close. The Goat really tanked it.

That's something that I've wondered about. I know a lot of people here have a serious hate on for Martin but he isn't all that terrible a player. Hands of stone, sure, but he is pretty consistent on the forecheck, doesn't cough the puck up a lot, is a reliable worker, and does provide a bit of muscle on the odd occasion when it's needed. I understand people questioning whether he's any sort of deterrent against other teams targeting our smaller skilled players but I don't think he's quite the hopeless case that people seem to think he is.

I suppose the argument is add even more skill to the lineup by replacing him with someone else, but only Sosh or perhaps Leivo brings that same heavy play to the table (or Leo but he's already dressing). I think there are a few intangibles about his attitude and work ethic and attention to detail that appeal to management as an example to younger players, but I suspect his tenure is limited to his current contract or could get moved before that if someone is knocking at the door to take his spot.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 11361
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #162 on: January 23, 2018, 01:59:30 PM »
Btw, I'm the guy who wanted a Leivo-Holland-Brown 4th line last year, and wished for Seth Griffith to have room in the top-9, so I'm very open to getting rid of Martin, Gauthier, Polak, Komarov, and just playing pond hockey. We wouldn't win with that in the long run, but it's hella fun to watch.

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Global Moderator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 21325
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #163 on: January 23, 2018, 02:00:48 PM »
There's a a potential asset loss to cramming all those guys into the roster. We've got some injuries now, but when we don't, either the exempt players get loaned, a vet gets waived, or someone gets traded. I don't think those trades will result in much at this moment, but they probably get picked up on waivers. It's a freed up contract slot, but it's also the team waiving a guy the coach has been asking them to emulate the habits of for the past two years. Most would say, then don't ask players to emulate them... *shrug* this is where we are already.

That's not really a problem. When we're entirely healthy one of Dermott or Borgman are going to have to get sent down, and then Kapanen will have to go back down too. Two of Leivo-Martin-Soshnikov are in the pressbox along with Carrick or Polak (but probably Carrick) while the other plays. Nobody lost on waivers, nobody needs to get traded.

Again, the biggest problem with our 4th line has already been solved (Gauthier). We should be fine there going forward with the guys already on our roster.

Offline Highlander

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4789
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #164 on: January 23, 2018, 07:51:50 PM »
There's a a potential asset loss to cramming all those guys into the roster. We've got some injuries now, but when we don't, either the exempt players get loaned, a vet gets waived, or someone gets traded. I don't think those trades will result in much at this moment, but they probably get picked up on waivers. It's a freed up contract slot, but it's also the team waiving a guy the coach has been asking them to emulate the habits of for the past two years. Most would say, then don't ask players to emulate them... *shrug* this is where we are already.

That's not really a problem. When we're entirely healthy one of Dermott or Borgman are going to have to get sent down, and then Kapanen will have to go back down too. Two of Leivo-Martin-Soshnikov are in the pressbox along with Carrick or Polak (but probably Carrick) while the other plays. Nobody lost on waivers, nobody needs to get traded.

Again, the biggest problem with our 4th line has already been solved (Gauthier). We should be fine there going forward with the guys already on our roster.
Don't know about you but I feel a trade is in the air. I feel that we have a situation were we are going to clear out a lot of prospects (a la Grabner trade) including the Goat, Leivo etc.  They are going to need some space with the 50 man limit and lets face it the Goat, Leivo are not going anywhere in this organization......anymore.  Throw in about 2 others and Komarov or Bozo and a deal is done.
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
                                           Navaho Proverb

TMLfans.ca

Re: Avalanche @ Leafs - Jan. 22nd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050
« Reply #164 on: January 23, 2018, 07:51:50 PM »