Author Topic: Komarov: Sell or Keep?  (Read 1173 times)

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Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2017, 07:08:28 PM »
What's the argument here?  That Komarov isn't good enough defensively against OV and Backstrom?  I'm trying to sift through the sarcasm to extrapolate a point to this.

Pretty much any player is "replaceable".

Komarov has been pretty well established around here in terms of being a strong defensive and physical presence.  So if he's replaceable, who is the substitute we're suggesting could take his place?

The enjoyable banter that attracted me here 20 years or so ago is rarely displayed anymore.  This style of demeaning tone against Coco Puffs has a putrid stench that has driven away almost everyone I had considered friends here with only a few left.

I feel bad for how hard Rob, Darryl, Jay and especially Rick have worked to build a great community to only see it degenerate.  Most likely I won't be back but most of the movers and shakers here won't give a shit.
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Online WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2017, 07:21:58 PM »
If I had to guess it would be that while Komarov is a valuable PK'er and plays a hard-nosed game, he isn't the second coming of Frank Selke or Patrice Bergeron.

He is making more than his production suggests he is worth.

Someone like Soshnikov has all of the base elements that Komarov has to his game in terms of PK and physicality and can do so with more offensive flair and at a cheaper price point.

Komarov is likely to look for a contract that sets his family up financially and at his age and with his style of play, that might not be a smart move.

In a cap world, you cannot fall in love with middle six players making more than they are worth, that's a one-way road towards mediocrity. See Montreal, Boston and the Leafs before they properly stripped the junk and committed to a rebuild.


Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2017, 10:10:22 PM »
To be clear, I am not advocating that we re-sign Komarov.  I'd rather go with a younger cheaper option next year.  And if the return for him at the deadline is good I wouldn't complain about him getting traded but I wouldn't necessarily be shopping him either.

I just bristle at the comment that he wouldn't be a difference maker in the playoffs.  Sure, he wouldn't light up the scoresheet, but that's not his role and I think he's pretty effective in his role.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2017, 10:14:10 PM »
I just bristle at the comment that he wouldn't be a difference maker in the playoffs.  Sure, he wouldn't light up the scoresheet, but that's not his role and I think he's pretty effective in his role.

He wouldn't be replaced by nobody. He'd be replaced by someone with other skills that could also be valuable. The value Komarov brings vs. the value his replacement would(even if it's an internal replacement) is small enough that any series that would be decided by his presence is effectively going to be a toss-up anyway and is far more likely to be decided by any one of a hundred other variables.

Again, saying he wouldn't make the difference in a playoff run isn't the same thing as saying he's without value.
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Online herman

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2017, 10:28:36 AM »
In a cap world, you cannot fall in love with middle six players making more than they are worth, that's a one-way road towards mediocrity. See Montreal, Boston and the Leafs before they properly stripped the junk and committed to a rebuild.

This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2017, 10:37:45 AM »
This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

Yup. And, if the Leafs can get similar value for Komarov as the Hawks did for Shaw, for instance, while being able to insert someone like Soshnikov who can provide similar - if not better - on-ice value, they're golden.
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Offline Andy

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2017, 11:04:08 AM »
In a cap world, you cannot fall in love with middle six players making more than they are worth, that's a one-way road towards mediocrity. See Montreal, Boston and the Leafs before they properly stripped the junk and committed to a rebuild.

This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

True and then they got Bryan Bickell'd and lost a great young player in Teravainen (sp?). Let's hope the Leafs can avoid that fate.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2017, 11:26:51 AM »
True and then they got Bryan Bickell'd and lost a great young player in Teravainen (sp?). Let's hope the Leafs can avoid that fate.

Yup. Bickell is a great example of what not to do with guys like Komarov.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Frank E

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2017, 12:11:58 PM »
My understanding was that we were talking about the difference between trading Komarov, or keeping him for the playoffs this year and letting him walk/trading his negotiation rights, as opposed to re-signing him.


Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2017, 12:12:55 PM »
Pretty much any player is "replaceable".

I think fundamentally this is the point here. Most guys are replaceable so when you can flip them for assets you probably should. Especially in a situation where you are dealing with a lot of depth at a particular position and the guy you have no is arguably already overpaid for what he brings to the table.

Like other people are saying, thriving in a cap world requires a little bit of ruthlessness. This is going to be a hard adjustment for a fanbase that, in the past, has fallen in love with their 3rd and 4th line grinders.
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Online herman

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2017, 12:22:51 PM »
By that token, the Leafs really have to start making room to play their cusp players so we can really see what they've got (and start building their credit score on the market). A churn of skilled, cheap depth players hitting the team at their peak output years (21-25) is what'll ensure we get the best value out of our more expensive high-end talent.

Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2017, 03:23:07 PM »
I don't believe, for one second, that Komarov would net the return that Shaw got:

1.  Shaw was an RFA.  Komarov will be a UFA at the end of the deal.  So you are trading for 20 games plus playoffs for Komarov vs. years from Shaw 

2.  Shaw was 24 at the time of the trade.  Komarov will be 30. 

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.  That said, he's not going to get you a 39th and 45th overall pick.  At best, he gets you a late 2nd round pick (because the team getting him is a playoff team) and maybe a 4th round pick.  Anything beyond that, and I'm game for him getting traded.  Anything less than that, and I'd rather have him on our roster for the playoffs.

Note, I say the above with two other things in mind that have been stated here that I don't agree with:

1.  We are in LTIR.  We don't save a lick of "cap space" by trading Komarov this year.  Now, if moving Komarov opens up the door to pick up a player with a much bigger salary at the deadline (ie, we need the room under LTIR)- then it makes sense from a cap space perspective.  If we weren't in LTIR, then trading him now would be ideal- we could make room under the cap for our inevitable bonuses that are going to have to be tacked on to next years cap at this point. 

2.  While Soshnikov or Andreas Johnsson may provide a bit more offense, I don't think they outweigh Komarov's defensive ability surplus over them.  Furthermore, while I agree outscoring the opposition is the goal- we have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, but not quite as many who do a good job preventing it from happening.  If we were flush with good defensive forwards and needed more offense, I'd be game to trade Komarov to make room for a player with more offense in his arsenal.  This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree.



Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2017, 03:27:56 PM »
I don't believe, for one second, that Komarov would net the return that Shaw got:

1.  Shaw was an RFA.  Komarov will be a UFA at the end of the deal.  So you are trading for 20 games plus playoffs for Komarov vs. years from Shaw 

2.  Shaw was 24 at the time of the trade.  Komarov will be 30. 

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.  That said, he's not going to get you a 39th and 45th overall pick.  At best, he gets you a late 2nd round pick (because the team getting him is a playoff team) and maybe a 4th round pick.  Anything beyond that, and I'm game for him getting traded.  Anything less than that, and I'd rather have him on our roster for the playoffs.

Note, I say the above with two other things in mind that have been stated here that I don't agree with:

1.  We are in LTIR.  We don't save a lick of "cap space" by trading Komarov this year.  Now, if moving Komarov opens up the door to pick up a player with a much bigger salary at the deadline (ie, we need the room under LTIR)- then it makes sense from a cap space perspective.  If we weren't in LTIR, then trading him now would be ideal- we could make room under the cap for our inevitable bonuses that are going to have to be tacked on to next years cap at this point. 

2.  While Soshnikov or Andreas Johnsson may provide a bit more offense, I don't think they outweigh Komarov's defensive ability surplus over them.  Furthermore, while I agree outscoring the opposition is the goal- we have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, but not quite as many who do a good job preventing it from happening.  If we were flush with good defensive forwards and needed more offense, I'd be game to trade Komarov to make room for a player with more offense in his arsenal.  This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree.

Is Komarov the difference between winning a cup, and not winning a cup?  If he is, then yeah, I guess you keep him.  If not, you have to look at his upcoming UFA status and recoup what you can for him because you are unlikely to sign him for less than 3 million. As such, the team would be better off going with his replacement sooner rather than later, and getting picks in return for him, rather than letting him walk in the summer.  Seems like better asset management. 
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Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2017, 03:42:11 PM »
I don't believe, for one second, that Komarov would net the return that Shaw got:

1.  Shaw was an RFA.  Komarov will be a UFA at the end of the deal.  So you are trading for 20 games plus playoffs for Komarov vs. years from Shaw 

2.  Shaw was 24 at the time of the trade.  Komarov will be 30. 

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.  That said, he's not going to get you a 39th and 45th overall pick.  At best, he gets you a late 2nd round pick (because the team getting him is a playoff team) and maybe a 4th round pick.  Anything beyond that, and I'm game for him getting traded.  Anything less than that, and I'd rather have him on our roster for the playoffs.

Note, I say the above with two other things in mind that have been stated here that I don't agree with:

1.  We are in LTIR.  We don't save a lick of "cap space" by trading Komarov this year.  Now, if moving Komarov opens up the door to pick up a player with a much bigger salary at the deadline (ie, we need the room under LTIR)- then it makes sense from a cap space perspective.  If we weren't in LTIR, then trading him now would be ideal- we could make room under the cap for our inevitable bonuses that are going to have to be tacked on to next years cap at this point. 

2.  While Soshnikov or Andreas Johnsson may provide a bit more offense, I don't think they outweigh Komarov's defensive ability surplus over them.  Furthermore, while I agree outscoring the opposition is the goal- we have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, but not quite as many who do a good job preventing it from happening.  If we were flush with good defensive forwards and needed more offense, I'd be game to trade Komarov to make room for a player with more offense in his arsenal.  This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree.

Is Komarov the difference between winning a cup, and not winning a cup?  If he is, then yeah, I guess you keep him.  If not, you have to look at his upcoming UFA status and recoup what you can for him because you are unlikely to sign him for less than 3 million. As such, the team would be better off going with his replacement sooner rather than later, and getting picks in return for him, rather than letting him walk in the summer.  Seems like better asset management.

I agree with your premise.  If taking Komarov off the roster and replacing him with one of Kapenen/Sosh/Johnsson/Leivo does not hurt your chances, then yes, from an asset management perspective might as well recoup something before losing him for nothing.  However, if there IS a drop off from him to any of those guys (which is what I believe), then the assets you'd have to get back would have to be well worth the risk of running with a worse lineup.  I don't see us getting enough assets to outweigh that risk.

Sadly, this may very well be our best shot at winning a cup.  I have too much hope for this team in the future to believe that, but there is the pessimistic Leaf fan in me that looks at the fact we are going to face a cap crunch soon.  Hence, JvR, Bozak, and Komarov will probably not be back next year.  Gardiner has only 2 years left on his current contract- who knows if we'll be able to fit him in beyond that.  I hope we have the players in the system to replace those guys, but we aren't sure yet.  I'm not game to reduce my chances of winning now for a late 2nd round pick.


Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2017, 03:43:08 PM »
The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.

Well, that and the whole selling point of Komarov is that he's a really good defensive player who helps out on the penalty kill(neither of which is true of Shaw) along with him being a valuable intangibles sort.

Otherwise it seems like this seems pretty contradictory. On the one hand Komarov will be a significant factor in determining where the Leafs get in the playoffs, on the other he's worth pretty meagre picks. I don't think both can be definitively true. Conversely, I'm not making any statements about his worth but I think his relatively minimal impact on where they finish is probably outweighed by what he could fetch.
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Re: Komarov: Sell or Keep?
« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2017, 03:43:08 PM »