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I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate.
That's a correlation, not causation. The Kings didn't have any playoff success before winning their cup and on the opposite side of the spectrum the Capitals have won lots of playoff rounds without steadily marching upwards. Young teams with a lot of talent gradually improve. That typically means they'll make the playoffs before they put it all together and win a cup. Remember, you didn't say "it's important that the Leafs make the playoffs this year" but rather that the experience of playoff success will make a cup more likely in the future.
Quote from: Nik the Trik on October 14, 2017, 02:57:01 PMQuote from: Dappleganger on October 14, 2017, 01:25:35 PMGoing deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued. It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate. Here's the last 10 Stanley Cup winners and how they fared the year before winning the cup:2016: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: Stanley Cup winner. 2015: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: 1st Round.2014: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.2013: Los Angeles - Previous Season: Conference Finals. 2012: Chicago - Previous Season: 1st Round.2011: Los Angeles - Previous Season: 1st Round.2010: Boston - Previous Season: 2nd Round.2009: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.2008: Pittsburgh - Stanley Cup Finals.2007: Detroit - Conference Finals.2006: Anaheim - Conference Finals.The last team to miss the playoffs and win the cup were the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes, coming off the lockout year.
Quote from: Dappleganger on October 14, 2017, 01:25:35 PMGoing deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued. It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.
Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.
It's simple math Nik. Making it to the conference finals or farther exponentially increases a teams chance of securing a cup than not making it past the 2nd round.
Quote from: Dappleganger on October 14, 2017, 05:25:10 PMIt's simple math Nik. Making it to the conference finals or farther exponentially increases a teams chance of securing a cup than not making it past the 2nd round.I freely admit that math was never my best subject but even I know that's not true(and also, that's not how exponents work).
I'd keep JVR unless he's part of a deal to bring in a number 1 d-man, which would be unlikely.
Quote from: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 10:47:23 AMI'd keep JVR unless he's part of a deal to bring in a number 1 d-man, which would be unlikely.I'd trade him for a good top 4 dman. I still think JvR for Vatanen still makes sense for the basis of a deal.
The cap hits of JVR + Bozak + Komarov add up to $11.4 million. I think 2 of those 3 aren't on the Leafs next season. They can find a way to make the numbers work by plugging in younger players on cheap contracts.
I gave reasons for my opinion on why keeping JVR might be worth it even though he could walk next year for nothing. None of this is conclusive.
Quote from: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 10:47:23 AMI gave reasons for my opinion on why keeping JVR might be worth it even though he could walk next year for nothing. None of this is conclusive. Right. It's not math, simple or otherwise. But, again, your opinion seems based on the false dichotomy that the Leafs, by trading JVR, will necessary have a worse team for the playoffs than they do now and so trading him will automatically assume a worse chance of success in this year's playoffs. Even ignoring my point about the hard to pin down value of experience or what I've said about there not necessarily being a causal relationship between prior playoff success and a cup...that's still not true.
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.
Quote from: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 01:12:37 PMI do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.I don't think that's a statement that can made without knowing what is coming back for JVR. You said in another post that JVR would do well in Anahiem. If the deal was JVR for Vatanen, then on paper it would seem that they would actually get stronger.