What to do with JVR

[mr grieves]

* JvR and Bozak, by extension, guarantees that the Leafs have a dangerous (in both directions) third line option for a playoff drive; What is the opportunity cost in losing both of them at the deadline? How does it affect the lineup of youngsters when they see good soldiers for the team sold off for zero current impact?

I wouldn't discount the goals they'd lose, though I wouldn't worry much about them (say, JvR's 25-30 becomes Kap/Leivo's 15-20, so we're down 10 or so? Dump Komarov and might gain a few). But this is sort of interesting... I don't doubt that JvR is liked, but I suspect Matthews, Nylander, and the like would take JvR's departure as a challenge: it's their team now.

I don't really get the "Trade JVR/Try to win" dichotomy though. You could trade JVR and, whether it comes internally via someone like Leivo or Kapanen or via a separate deadline deal, still have most of what you want going forward.

Hanging onto JVR and letting him walk seems less like a statement about trying to win and more like a timidity to make bold, necessary moves because you're afraid of rocking the boat.

I think this is it. Absolutely.

[Bill_Berg]

I like to think there is a chance they can resign him on a reasonable deal, by reasonable I mean not what he can get on the open market. He's been with the team for so long and they're finally getting good there may be some incentive to stay to win. Assuming there's no steal of a deal out there, I would expect him to stay and walk in the off season if there is a contender that offers him something big. If there isn't, then maybe the door swings open for him staying for less than he could get on the open market. Of course there may be a line up of teams willing to offer huge contracts that JVR may think can win now, New Jersey maybe with the home town ties for example.

[herman]

How do you figure that?

The "return requirement" on the team's best players at the start of the rebuild (summer 2015?) was "something that gets them a chance at a core piece" -- a top prospect, a relatively high pick, whatever.

Well, two years on the Leafs have all the core forwards they need (JvR is not one of them), a decent group of defensemen (though not a 1D -- which JvR would never get you anyway), and a goalie.

The "return requirement" now, on all the expiring contracts, should be picks and prospects that might fill out the team's depth. 2021-22's Conner Brown or Carrick -- a cheap, good NHLer to replace the good NHLers you'e got who are no longer cheap.

To get those, you need to keep replenishing the pipeline.

I think where I was going with that was:
Earlier: young potential core piece + picks
Now: established defenseman

I don't dispute that we could trade JvR to a contender for assets and turn those assets (or other assets) around for what we want. I will say that is easier said than done

[Coco-puffs]

If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

* I'm sure most of you will scoff at that idea outright.  I personally don't buy it entirely (mostly because I'd hate if that came true), but the only way we can extend it beyond the next two years is players taking discounts and great performances from guys on ELC filling out the roster.  When Darren Dreger is saying Matthews agent should be commanding a contract MORE than McDavid's come negotiation time ( I'm not kidding you, he said it http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/will-matthews-get-more-money-than-mcdavid~1231014 ) and Nylander has a season that puts him in Draisatal territory instead of Pastrnak/Ehlers it becomes a worst case scenario where the window actually was pretty short because we can't afford the depth you want to win.

[AvroArrow]

Unless they're moving him for another impact player (i.e a defenceman), I'd be pretty surprised if they dealt JVR during the season.

This.

[Nik the Trik]

But this is sort of interesting... I don't doubt that JvR is liked, but I suspect Matthews, Nylander, and the like would take JvR's departure as a challenge: it's their team now.

The thing about this discussion is that it does tend to boil down to the tangible benefits of trading JVR vs. the perceived intangible benefits of keeping him and the resulting success it brings. As someone who doesn't like dismissing the idea that intangible things have real value when it comes to roster decisions(a position I have more company in when talking about questionable decisions this management group makes vs. any other funnily enough) I worry that this doesn't, as you say here, acknowledge that there are potentially intangible benefits to moving JVR as well.

Yes, maybe some players see it as "Wait, JVR was my buddy. Do they not care about that?" and that's a legitimate concern. But they also might see it as "Wow, this team is cutthroat in their desire to win a cup. That's good, because so am I".

Maybe Jonathan Toews got on great with Tuomo Ruutu. Maybe Sid Crosby loathed Ryan Whitney. Either way, I don't think that can drive decision making too much.

[Nik the Trik]

If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

I don't think anyone has made the case that you should only trade JVR for prospects or that you shouldn't make any other moves to improve the team immediately while still realizing the rewards of trading your UFA's on expiring deals.

[herman]

In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though.

I wasn't really working under the assumption that the front office and I saw things the same way. My contention here is they're wrong.

Haha that's pretty well established.

I'm trying to see this problem from the team's perspective to get a better sense of their valuation process, and currently I see they would prefer to let JvR/Bozak walk at the end of this season, rather than trade for what is currently available to them on the market (nickels). Which is not to say that keeping them this long hasn't already been a mistake, or that it really speaks to their desire to win in this brief window.

They're not locker room bad guys, so there's no inherent value in subtraction, and the team is more conservative about the filler that takes their place.

[Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate]

I think you have to consider too what trading JVR would mean for Bozak's performance.  They have been a tandem for a good while and (notwithstanding whatever friendship issues might be underlying) it could well be that a JVR departure would negatively affect Bozak's performance too. 

I'm ambivalent about trading JVR at this point, but if they do I think they should also deal Bozak.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think he could still fetch a kings ransom if you can find the right dance partner.

Retain 50% of his salary and JVR with a cap hit of 2 million is by far the most attractive name out there on the market.

[Nik the Trik]

Yeah, something else to keep in mind is the "nickels" analogy was just meant to highlight a dwindling in value. We have no real way of knowing what the actual market out there is for JVR beyond knowing that the Leafs don't like it more than JVR.

But something to keep in mind, and this goes back to the Hamonic stuff, is that while it's probably true that JVR can't fetch the sorts of defenseman that the team really needs, the assets he'd return are far more fungible than he is. I don't think a 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks are more valuable than JVR but I do buy that the Islanders didn't really see a need for JVR.

[Significantly Insignificant]

Yeah, something else to keep in mind is the "nickels" analogy was just meant to highlight a dwindling in value. We have no real way of knowing what the actual market out there is for JVR beyond knowing that the Leafs don't like it more than JVR.

But something to keep in mind, and this goes back to the Hamonic stuff, is that while it's probably true that JVR can't fetch the sorts of defenseman that the team really needs, the assets he'd return are far more fungible than he is. I don't think a 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks are more valuable than JVR but I do buy that the Islanders didn't really see a need for JVR.

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

They may have felt there was a need for JVR, but not at any cost.

I have a feeling they are going to sign both Bozak and JVR to deals, perhaps even long term deals, and then see what assets they have to move.  I'm not sure this is the right approach though.

[Nik the Trik]

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

I maybe should have said "can buy" rather than "do buy". I can't say for sure why the Islanders went the other way but I am comfortable in saying that, generally speaking, picks are more fungible than any individual player.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

As for why the Islanders went the other way, I've heard multiple Leafs beat guys mention it was because JVR would not answer his phone and confirm he was open to a long-term deal with the Islanders, take that for what it's worth, but Mirtle, Siegel and CJ all seem fairly reliable.

[Significantly Insignificant]

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

I maybe should have said "can buy" rather than "do buy". I can't say for sure why the Islanders went the other way but I am comfortable in saying that, generally speaking, picks are more fungible than any individual player.

Do you have a fungible quota for the day?

I know you don't like looking at deals this way, but if you take what the Islanders moved out on draft day, they moved out Hamonic, Strome, and a 4th rounder in either 2019 or 2020.  They got back Eberle, a 1st in 2018, a 2nd in 2018, and a 2nd in either 2019 or 2020. 

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle.  He seems more consistent, and he has a lower salaray.  On the con side, he could walk at the end of the year, and that might be a real big deal for a team like the Islanders.  Based on that premise and looking at the moves that the Islanders did make, I could see a scenario where the Islanders were working on a similar deal with the Leafs, but it fell through because the Leafs didn't want to offer up all of the draft picks or similar draft picks that Calgary did.  Or maybe they didn't want to take back Strome, because ultimately they were trying to open up a roster spot for someone and if that were the case, then it's possible they wanted to stay with the devil they do know, rather than the one they don't.  There could have been a couple reasons why the deal fell through which don't have anything to do with the way teams value JvR.

I do think though that part of the problem is that the Leafs do appear to be a bit gun shy about going all in and handing the reigns of the team over to their young players, because I think there is a way that you could move a player like JvR, because we have seen Hall and Eberle move off the Oilers, so it is possible to deal wingers and get something back.  Also it wasn't too long ago that Kane was moved out of Winnipeg.