Author Topic: What to do with JVR  (Read 1951 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #45 on: October 13, 2017, 03:38:27 PM »
Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #46 on: October 13, 2017, 03:46:36 PM »
Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

With Connor Brown currently on the 4th line, you could argue that we ALREADY have JVR's 20-goal replacement on the team. If JVR went the lines would just likely go to:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
Komarov-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Leivo

1st line stays the same quality wise. 2nd line stays about the same, maybe even gets a little better to be honest. I think Brown should be there anyway. 3rd line loses offence but adds a pretty massive defensive improvement. And Bozak and Marner should still be able to create plenty of scoring on their own in sheltered minutes. 4th line gets worse but still a better-than-average 4th line.

The biggest loss that a JVR trade would cause in this line-up right now is on the powerplay. But generally the Leafs have run their two units basically evenly. If they just started playing the Matthews unit more in the 3-4 minutes per game area that other elite forwards play our PP rate probably wouldn't even drop.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 03:49:30 PM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline Zee

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #47 on: October 13, 2017, 03:48:06 PM »
Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.  Teams lose players for nothing all the time, and they can gain players for nothing as well such as a waiver pickup/free agent signing.  Having an experienced player like JVR on the playoff roster might bode well for this season as opposed to trading him for a pick.

Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #48 on: October 13, 2017, 04:00:52 PM »
Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.  Teams lose players for nothing all the time, and they can gain players for nothing as well such as a waiver pickup/free agent signing.  Having an experienced player like JVR on the playoff roster might bode well for this season as opposed to trading him for a pick.

Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Also, the Leafs can allow other teams to talk to JVR about the parameters of an extension also, that could increase his trade value too.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 04:02:23 PM by WhatIfGodWasALeaf »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #49 on: October 13, 2017, 04:04:35 PM »
Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Martin Hanzal got something similar too. Two years ago Ladd got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a top prospect. So a 1st round pick + _____ would almost certainly be the return.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #50 on: October 13, 2017, 04:05:55 PM »
What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.

I really don't understand the cognitive dissonance that in one sentence says you can trade draft picks for a player like JVR and then in the next say that a draft pick can't help you for years.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Zee

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What to do with JVR
« Reply #51 on: October 13, 2017, 05:08:40 PM »
Unless you mean taking the draft pick you get for JVR and using it as a chip in another trade down the line.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 05:10:45 PM by Zee »

Offline Zee

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #52 on: October 13, 2017, 05:17:28 PM »
Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Martin Hanzal got something similar too. Two years ago Ladd got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a top prospect. So a 1st round pick + _____ would almost certainly be the return.
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #53 on: October 13, 2017, 05:23:50 PM »
Unless you mean taking the draft pick you get for JVR and using it as a chip in another trade down the line.

Pretty much. Picks are assets. Alternately you can take the picks you'd get in a JVR trade and, secure in the knowledge that those picks will keep the prospect cupboard stocked, use other picks/prospects to make a deal.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #54 on: October 13, 2017, 05:37:47 PM »
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #55 on: October 14, 2017, 12:52:02 PM »
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

I think this is likely what'll happen.

But I'd underline -- just to point up what bad management it is to keep him -- that, in one important way, there's really no "risk" in keeping JvR past the deadline. It's a decision to burn an asset. You're not "risking" not getting anything out of him beyond what he can produce between February and April, you've decided that's enough.

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #56 on: October 14, 2017, 01:23:19 PM »
On power-play and in the playoffs, that big body is in front of the net and durability along the boards is great to have. But this is the salary-cap era. After the Big-Three, defensemen, goaltending and depth at center, wingers unfortunately are the last thing precious cap-dollars should go towards. Especially with the wealth of young forwards the Leafs have that can come up.

Because of the reasons stated, if I could only make one offer to either JVR, Bozak or Komorov, I would actually make the offer to Bozak for depth down the middle.
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #57 on: October 14, 2017, 01:25:35 PM »
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

I think this is likely what'll happen.

But I'd underline -- just to point up what bad management it is to keep him -- that, in one important way, there's really no "risk" in keeping JvR past the deadline. It's a decision to burn an asset. You're not "risking" not getting anything out of him beyond what he can produce between February and April, you've decided that's enough.

It's bad management, imo, if the Leafs miss the playoffs and keep JVR. If the Leafs look like a team capable of winning a round or two at the trade deadline I think it'd be bad management to trade JVR, unless he'll bring in a roster player that'll be an upgrade somewhere, which is highly unlikely.

Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued. If that means not getting a return for trading JVR, that's the 'cost of doing business' as they say.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #58 on: October 14, 2017, 02:57:01 PM »
Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #59 on: October 14, 2017, 04:03:13 PM »
Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.

I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate.


Here's the last 10 Stanley Cup winners and how they fared the year before winning the cup:

2016: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: Stanley Cup winner.

2015: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2014: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2013: Los Angeles - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2012: Chicago - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2011: Los Angeles - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2010: Boston - Previous Season: 2nd Round.

2009: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2008: Pittsburgh - Stanley Cup Finals.

2007: Detroit - Conference Finals.

2006: Anaheim - Conference Finals.


The last team to miss the playoffs and win the cup were the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes, coming off the lockout year.

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Re: What to do with JVR
« Reply #59 on: October 14, 2017, 04:03:13 PM »