Author Topic: Cap situation  (Read 544 times)

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Offline Newfoundlandleaf

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Cap situation
« on: October 05, 2017, 12:21:47 PM »
Hi again,

Like to start a cap discussion thread...I'm "glass half full" in terms of cap space and issues going forward.

1. Marleau's and Horton's hits run out together....

2. We lose the Gleason, Lupul and Cowan hits next year...

3. Whether we keep Komorov, Bozak, Van Reimsdyk, we have flexibility there....

4. Moore and Fehr obligations end after this year...

Seems like there would be lots of money for the big three....and Gardiner...if we use the "Chicago" model of topping up with good young talent...which we seem to have in abundance.

Thoughts?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2017, 12:30:50 PM »
If the big three sign for a combined 25 million between them then between them, Kadri, Rielly, Zaitsev and Andersen the team will be at 45.2 million on those 7 and the Kessel obligation. That would leave 30 million ish at the current cap for 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and a goalie. Assuming you want to keep Gardiner and he'll cost, say, 5.5 or 6 million on an extension then you're down to less than 25 million for 13 players.

So any real flexibility will have to come from A) cap growth or B) Losing some of the guys mentioned above. The idea that you can re-sign JVR, to me, is nuts.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 12:33:03 PM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2017, 12:58:11 PM »
Given the cap could have been inflated to $79 million this season had both parties activated the optional increase and the fact that the Canadian dollar is much stronger than it has been right now, I think it's fair to say that the cap should be at least $80million next year and that's probably being conservative.

The year after when you feel the full brunt of all three triplets new contracts, the cap could conceivably be anywhere between 80-85 million, that changes the discussion fairly significantly.

30- 35 million for 13 players, at least a few of whom will be on ELC's or smaller post ELC deals for guys like Kapanen who have yet to produce at the NHL level.

The team would still have room to make a few bigger ticket moves.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2017, 01:03:25 PM »
Given the cap could have been inflated to $79 million this season had both parties activated the optional increase and the fact that the Canadian dollar is much stronger than it has been right now, I think it's fair to say that the cap should be at least $80million next year and that's probably being conservative.

I feel like the obvious point there is that the fact that the cap didn't get inflated wasn't an accident. It was because players know that it's a meaningless gesture that helps team but ultimately just results in bigger escrow payments for them. I wouldn't be investing heavily in that decision just reversing.
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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2017, 01:06:58 PM »
Yeah, 80 million is the figure assuming the players refuse to increase fully again.


Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2017, 01:08:22 PM »
Yeah, 80 million is the figure assuming the players refuse to increase fully again.

That assumes pretty healthy revenue growth, doesn't it?
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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2017, 01:15:57 PM »
Yeah, 80 million is the figure assuming the players refuse to increase fully again.

That assumes pretty healthy revenue growth, doesn't it?

Off the back of 5 Canadian teams that are in playoff contention and a strong Canadian dollar largely, add to that the owners opting to inflate the cap on their end, even if the players don't want the full 5% increase.

Also, the Board of Governors has already been talking about an $80 million cap next year.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2017, 01:29:23 PM »
Off the back of 5 Canadian teams that are in playoff contention and a strong Canadian dollar largely, add to that the owners opting to inflate the cap on their end, even if the players don't want the full 5% increase.

Also, the Board of Governors has already been talking about an $80 million cap next year.

Sure. That's also in a year where you've added a 31st team that probably figures to be in the lower half of the league revenue-wise and a year where you could see a sharp drop off for some of the league's bigger American markets(NY, Boston, Detroit, LA).

I just wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch on this one. And definitely not next year's chickens.
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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2017, 01:43:26 PM »
That's fair, at the same time painting a picture of doom and gloom financially based on the current cap, isn't telling the whole story either.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2017, 01:51:12 PM »
That's fair, at the same time painting a picture of doom and gloom financially based on the current cap, isn't telling the whole story either.

I like to think I was painting a picture of restraint and prudent behaviour. Sort of a CapGeek by way of John William Waterhouse thing.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2017, 01:53:19 PM »
That's fair, at the same time painting a picture of doom and gloom financially based on the current cap, isn't telling the whole story either.

I like to think I was painting a picture of restraint and prudent behaviour. Sort of a CapGeek by way of John William Waterhouse thing.

More Grindhouse, less Waterhouse is your general vibe.  ;)

Offline Highlander

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2017, 01:54:28 PM »
One would wonder what effect the mass shooting in Vegas will do with visitor percentages. I have found one thing about Americans, is that they will avoid danger zones for the most part.  I have always  believed Vegas was a prime target for Radical Islam and now it's a home grown freak that does this. 
A new franchise could really struggle if the numbers in Vegas are terrible. And this could have an effect on the cap. No?
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2017, 02:00:51 PM »
Vegas reached their season ticket sales cap long ago, however many thousand seats are kept for individual sale and resort promotions are all that will be left to be sold.

Even with a reduction in tourism, I'd be stunned if they don't sell-out at least half their games, attendances might not reflect that though.

I have a hard time believing a pro sports team in that spot won't be profitable.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2017, 02:52:00 PM »
I agree, on any given night there are a million visitors to Vegas, many are not gamblers so they either have a great meal somewhere, take in a show, or stand mesmerized watching the Bellagio fountain (one of my favourite pastimes), so it figures that Vegas will be a good draw for hockey. And the Arena is unbelievable.
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2017, 02:55:02 PM »

It's also not the 70's anymore. The difference between a big revenue generating team and a not-big revenue generating team is not whether or not you can get people out to the arena.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Re: Cap situation
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2017, 02:55:02 PM »