Author Topic: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1  (Read 2703 times)

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Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2017, 03:02:46 PM »
Plus, I'm pretty hesitant to call Brown a 20-goal scorer. I'd rather: someone who has once scored 20 goals. Kulemin scored 30 in one season.

Good point.  After all, Jason Blake was a "40-goal-scorer" once too.  Blargh.

Offline herman

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2017, 04:51:19 PM »
I think the assumption is that Kapanen will take his spot at some point and bump him down the line-up. This will mean fewer opportunities and lesser linemates.

Well, someone with better access to advanced stats than I have could maybe correct this but even regardless of Kapanen it seems unlikely that Brown will get much time with Matthews this year. Kadri wasn't a huge offensive downgrade last year but he still was one.

Also, again, regardless of Kapanen you have the high SH% and the possibility he doesn't see much PP time.

I mentioned this in another thread, but nearly half of Brown's EV points came from his time spent with Matthews, equaling his output with Kadri in 10% less time. If he's going to be solidly taped to Kadri's wing*, I don't see him netting 20 again. He was one of three players who routinely played all three phases of the game (Komarov and Zaitsev being the others) and Lou has already said (of Zaitsev) that he'd prefer players to operate in two.

Brown and Kapanen both occupy the same roster niche, but 2 years apart. If we throw Hyman into the RW pile as well, Brown is sort of the middle-man of the three, player-profile-wise. They're all the types of players we'd like to fill out our depth with cheaply (flexible plug-and-play for offensive or defensive complements), and then sell off for needs (Kapanen being the higher end of the three).

* Corsi improved for Kadri and Brown when they were together. Both Brown's and Matthews' CF% were better when they were apart than together (obviously because they both could play with Kadri and Nylander respectively).
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 04:59:27 PM by herman »

Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2017, 08:19:05 PM »


I mentioned this in another thread, but nearly half of Brown's EV points came from his time spent with Matthews, equaling his output with Kadri in 10% less time. If he's going to be solidly taped to Kadri's wing*, I don't see him netting 20 again.

I'm not necesarily disagreeing with you and I'm going to have a hard time asking this question but..here goes;
If he equaled his output with Matthews in 10% less time, wouldn't that mean he'd only drop by 2 goals(10% of 20 goals) if he spent that Matthews time solely with Kadri?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2017, 10:34:38 PM »
I'm not necesarily disagreeing with you and I'm going to have a hard time asking this question but..here goes;
If he equaled his output with Matthews in 10% less time, wouldn't that mean he'd only drop by 2 goals(10% of 20 goals) if he spent that Matthews time solely with Kadri?

That may be but a lot of people here are certainly investing a lot in Brown having sort of hit that fairly arbitrary 20 goal mark.

Round numbers shouldn't mean that much but there you go. A slight drop in shooting percentage and the reduction in linemates and you're probably talking about a 15 goal scorer which isn't terribly exciting for a 3rd line player.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline herman

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2017, 11:15:04 PM »
I should correct myself here after checking in on the numbers.

Here's his goal/points breakdown by line and home/away:
LineTOIEV PtsEV GsHGAGHAAA
Kadri41.81%1164250
Matthews33.76%1371642
Bozak6.86%331200
4th4.88%211010

In addition, 3 of his goals were empty netters.

Take out the 7 goals with Matthews and pro-rate his results with Kadri (~5 I'm ballparking because I don't have 5v5 iGF60), scrub out the PP time goals (3), EN goals aren't super sustainable (probably what contributed to the SH%), and we're looking at 13-16 goals if Brown is Kadri's buddy and SH specialist with the same-ish luck as last year. I'm expecting 10-15. If he gets PP time (especially with Bozak and JvR gone), then add 2.


Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #35 on: August 28, 2017, 07:34:02 AM »
I'm not necesarily disagreeing with you and I'm going to have a hard time asking this question but..here goes;
If he equaled his output with Matthews in 10% less time, wouldn't that mean he'd only drop by 2 goals(10% of 20 goals) if he spent that Matthews time solely with Kadri?

That may be but a lot of people here are certainly investing a lot in Brown having sort of hit that fairly arbitrary 20 goal mark.

Round numbers shouldn't mean that much but there you go. A slight drop in shooting percentage and the reduction in linemates and you're probably talking about a 15 goal scorer which isn't terribly exciting for a 3rd line player.

That's actually on the upper end of what would be expected out of a 3rd line player.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #36 on: August 28, 2017, 08:12:42 AM »
That's actually on the upper end of what would be expected out of a 3rd line player.

And...you think that someone producing within roughly the upper 1/6 of third line forwards in goal production is terribly exciting?

If so I'm happy to retract my statement to the contrary.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #37 on: August 28, 2017, 08:53:54 AM »
After the Hyman deal I was pretty worried that Brown was going to come in at or over $3mil. I'm glad one of these made sense.

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2017, 08:54:22 AM »
Yes, extremely exciting. I can barely contain myself.

Offline herman

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2017, 09:07:45 AM »
They're (very) good third line numbers, but our top nine pretty much played 2nd line minutes across the board. So for a second liner, that's... lower half of average? I don't know where the thresholds are actually. Anyone have a breakdown by line?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #40 on: August 28, 2017, 09:13:44 AM »
They're (very) good third line numbers, but our top nine pretty much played 2nd line minutes across the board. So for a second liner, that's... lower half of average? I don't know where the thresholds are actually. Anyone have a breakdown by line?

There were roughly 200 or so players in the NHL last year who scored at a 15 goals/82 pace. That's where I got top 6th of the 90 or so players who would effectively be relegated to 3rd line status.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline herman

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #41 on: August 28, 2017, 03:55:25 PM »
https://theathletic.com/90484/2017/08/28/bourne-why-connor-browns-brain-is-his-most-valuable-asset-in-the-nhl/

Bourne on Brown:
Quote
This will sound a bit fanboy, but hear me out: If you're looking to buy a Leafs jersey outside the young Trio of Terror, Brown's would be a worthwhile choice.

That’s because he's a cerebral player who is always going to have value on your team. It’s so hard to explain the value of “smart” to hockey fans because it’s so hard to see. But if you could group NHL players by raw attributes — a team of the fastest players, a team of the strongest guys, a team of the smartest — that latter group would pick the rest apart.

Brown isn’t the best skater, nor is he the biggest guy, and he doesn’t have the hardest shot. But when a guy knows how to get himself in the right offensive spots, he scores a lot of what are perceived as “easy” goals. Anyone could finish that, you’d think, after he taps in a rolling puck on the back door.

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #42 on: August 28, 2017, 04:19:03 PM »
(Via theathletic)

Quote
A quick glance at capfriendly.com at Brown’s cap comparable right wingers next season shows that no other player comes close to the 20 goals Brown scored last season, proving the value the Leafs get in the 2012 sixth-round pick.

Well, looking at the comparables, Brown's numbers are commendable with plenty of room for improvement.


https://capfriendly.com

https://capfriendly.com/players/connor-brown

Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #43 on: August 28, 2017, 06:33:02 PM »
Everything aside, it is rather amusing that some feel Brown has 'peaked'. I get his value, and I understand that he may be a tradable asset but why would anyone assume that his first year numbers are his peak? Even if his shooting percentage was high and his line mate, half the time, was Matthews...shouldn't his play improve? Perhaps I'm wrong but is there a lot of players that peaked in their first season?

Offline wnc096

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2017, 10:22:59 PM »
Everything aside, it is rather amusing that some feel Brown has 'peaked'. I get his value, and I understand that he may be a tradable asset but why would anyone assume that his first year numbers are his peak? Even if his shooting percentage was high and his line mate, half the time, was Matthews...shouldn't his play improve? Perhaps I'm wrong but is there a lot of players that peaked in their first season?

Bill Muckalt comes to mind

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Re: Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1
« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2017, 10:22:59 PM »