Author Topic: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]  (Read 8422 times)

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Offline disco

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #60 on: July 02, 2017, 10:08:30 PM »
"I think it's going to be a fountain of youth for him..."
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline disco

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #61 on: July 02, 2017, 10:13:09 PM »
Two generations... one mission.
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline disco

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #62 on: July 02, 2017, 10:15:54 PM »
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #63 on: July 02, 2017, 10:19:54 PM »
Well, I get the arguments but he's 37.  I understand why they made this bet, but it could go south in a hurry if he can't keep up.

Offline jdh1

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #64 on: July 02, 2017, 10:39:48 PM »
I,m wondering how a 37 year old can keep up with the young guns?

Even at 37 Marleau is probably one of the faster guys in the league.

Well that,s good to know,I didn,t know much about him being out west.If he,s still got the wheels,hopefully he still got the hands to get 25 or 30 goals.

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #65 on: July 02, 2017, 11:00:33 PM »
Cullen of TSN:


Hes a 14-time 20-goal scorer, including last season when he buried 27, but there are some reasons to be wary about his production moving forward. Over the past three seasons, he has 1.35 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, the same as Alex Burrows and Nikolai Kulemin.

Another concern is that Marleau shot 14.2% last season, his best rate since 2009-2010. This matters because he generated 2.32 shots per game last season, his lowest since 2002-2003. If his shooting percentage comes down, that shot rate had better bounce back if hes going to maintain this level of production.

Even if his game is declining, hes not exactly limping towards the finish of his career. Marleau is still a very strong skater, has good size and hasnt missed a game since 2008-2009....

Verdict: Adding Marleau does make the Maple Leafs better, but its really difficult to foresee his production from ages 38 to 40 being enough to justify the terms of this contract. The signing does indicate that Toronto sees that their window to be a contender is open, and theyre right, but there is a fair chance that the return does not match the investment. But, if the Maple Leafs end up going further in the playoffs with Marleau in the lineup, criticism will be muted.


So, some cautionary notes along with the upside.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #66 on: July 02, 2017, 11:20:45 PM »

That seems like the sort of criticism that thinks of value in a production/dollars paid sense as a static concept that exists free of context.

Honestly, I'd guess that the odds that Marleau plays a shift for the Leafs in the 3rd year of that contract as 75/25 against with the 25 only happening if the first two years are really successful. Looking at it with a real concern for what his production might be at 40 seems to be sort of willfully ignoring the reality of the circumstances.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #67 on: July 02, 2017, 11:26:50 PM »

That seems like the sort of criticism that thinks of value in a production/dollars paid sense as a static concept that exists free of context.

Honestly, I'd guess that the odds that Marleau plays a shift for the Leafs in the 3rd year of that contract as 75/25 against with the 25 only happening if the first two years are really successful. Looking at it with a real concern for what his production might be at 40 seems to be sort of willfully ignoring the reality of the circumstances.

Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?  Who presumably set him up a lot.  I just hope that isn't the beginning of a downward trend that, at his age, is almost inevitable.  If he's not getting lots of shots on goal, then he becomes less of an upgrade on Hyman.

The indisputably good thing, I hasten to add, is that this surely pushes Hyman down the depth chart, where he belongs. 

I also should add I'm not so worried about his 5/5 points avg -- if he plays with AM and Willie then that will go up I'd bet.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2017, 11:28:23 PM by Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #68 on: July 02, 2017, 11:57:07 PM »
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?

Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.

But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #69 on: July 03, 2017, 12:02:06 AM »
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?

Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.

But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.

OK, thanks for correcting me on that point.  I don't watch the Sharks much (obviously) and just assumed he played with Thornton.  That eases my concern somewhat.  But I still am leery of term going to a guy who'll be 38 when he first suits up for us. 

I just hope Lou is not Burke-ing the Shanaplan to kingdom come.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #70 on: July 03, 2017, 12:19:09 AM »
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?

Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.

But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.

OK, thanks for correcting me on that point.  I don't watch the Sharks much (obviously) and just assumed he played with Thornton.  That eases my concern somewhat.  But I still am leery of term going to a guy who'll be 38 when he first suits up for us. 

The absolute worst case scenario is that Marleau is old and plays terrible and a team that doesn't really need cap space has some of it tied up in a AHL player who is old and terrible.

There were no options to improve the team that weren't going to have a risk or downside of any sort. If Patrick Marleau were 34 he'd be looking for 6 years, not 3 and he'd be looking for 7-8 million per, not 6.

There's a potential downside to this deal, as there is all deals, but the actual chances of that downside really negatively affecting the team are very, very low.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline princedpw

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #71 on: July 03, 2017, 07:28:23 AM »
I'd prefer Justin Williams 2-year 4.5/year contract over this one. Or a 2-year 5.5/year contract if one wants to argue that we needed to outbid the canes.  Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.

But I believe somebody said you don't always get what you want ...

It does seem reasonable to take some risk for no asset cost rather than no risk at all.  It is a brief contention window.

Offline princedpw

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #72 on: July 03, 2017, 07:42:55 AM »
I might also have preferred this kind of trade for Marcus Johansson:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/7/2/15911934/marcus-johansson-trade-capitals-devils-nhl

It's a steal by the Devils. Minimal assets given up.

Offline Zee

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #73 on: July 03, 2017, 08:15:53 AM »
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Online Bullfrog

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #74 on: July 03, 2017, 08:22:13 AM »
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.

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Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
« Reply #74 on: July 03, 2017, 08:22:13 AM »