Author Topic: Armchair GM 2017-2018  (Read 11100 times)

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Offline mr grieves

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #165 on: October 27, 2017, 01:18:36 PM »
Sort of a follow up on the "how damaging was making the playoffs?" discussion on the GDT, and related to the issue of what to do with the expiring deals (Komarov, JvR, Bozak)....

I think the crucial elements, the core, are in place. The Leafs have got the 4 forwards, 3 defensemen (rather than one stud, alas), and starting goaltender they'll try to contend with. And, compared to the last time the team sniffed the playoffs, I'm pretty confident this core has a lot less wrong with it than that one. The Leafs' ultimate success will hinge on all sorts of stuff -- injuries, luck, etc. -- but, among them, something the management can control: good supporting players and depth.

So the biggest question I've got, from the armchair, is whether the NHL-ready prospects in the system -- let's call em Leivo, Kapanen, Soshnikov, and Johnsson -- can be serviceable, under-$3m/year options in the top-9 for the next 3 or 4 years. If they can be that, the team's good to go (i.e. start contending), even with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and maybe Gardiner set for big raises in the next few years. If they can't, the Leafs are probably looking at Option B:  bring back one or more of the expiring UFAs or filling the hole on the UFA market -- in either case, devoting more dollars to the position than they'd otherwise have to. Option C, of course, is to be a top-heavy, middling team.

Making the playoffs last year and thinking they're close (or winning the draft lottery in '16 and going into win-now mode) has meant we're not getting the chance to see whether any of the RFAs can really excel in a NHL top-9 role. Separate from the asset-management issue of whether it'd be nice to have picks and prospects for JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, by keeping them in the line-up night in and night out to win now, the Leafs going into the crucial "how do you build a deep, talented roster in a cost-effective way with lots of cap committed to a core" phase blind...

Or maybe they're not, and what they're seeing in AHL games and at practice is sufficient for them to know that there are internal replacements for the expiring UFAs, and, even if they don't recoup assets on JvR & c., there's at least going to be cost-controlled top-9 players on the team going forward.

Still, as a fan, I'd like to see that for myself. Unfortunately, Babcock's win-now static lineup means, barring an injury, we won't be able to...

The armchair concern: I worry that the most likely outcome is a bad one -- to wit, either they get attached to/ worry they can't compete without some of the expiring UFAs and sign them to deals that'll make the team less competitive than it ought to be over the long term (option B above) or they end up surprised to find what's in the system can't quite hack it and scramble to fill roster holes, now without the assets they'd've got if they had moved JvR, Bozak, Komarov (option C).

All of which comes down to something folks around here have been saying for a while: (1) trade the soon-to-be UFAs yesterday, (2) see where you get with something like...

Hyman - Matthews - Brown
Marleau - Nylander - Kapanen
Leivo - Kadri -Marner
Martin - Moore - Soshnikov

(I'd wager playoffs, early exit)

And (3) use the assets from Bozak, JvR, and Komarov to (a) keep the prospect pool full or (b) plug the holes that become apparent as the above lineup plays a bunch of games.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2017, 06:58:25 PM by mr grieves »

Online AvroArrow

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #166 on: October 27, 2017, 07:52:05 PM »
Given how the defense hasn't gotten any better than last year, I'd look at performing a minor overhaul.  Move Bozak and JvR for futures, demote Borgman and Polak, and target:

Brenden Smith
Alex Petrovic
Brayden McNabb

These guys have been healthy scratches this year, so there's a chance we could pick them up:
http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-a-look-at-early-season-scratches-1.896892

While we're at it, see if the Ilses are interested in moving DeHann for JvR.

Online AvroArrow

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #167 on: November 05, 2017, 07:23:41 PM »
Gardiner + 1st for Trouba
JvR for DeHann
2nd + Carrick for Petrovic

Reilly - Trouba
Hainsey - Zaitsev
De Hann - Petrovic

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Leivo - Marleau - Marner
Martin - Bozak - Kapanen


I'm thinking the first two deals are overpayments, but I'm trying to overpay instead of underpay (to be realistic instead of a homer).

Online Britishbulldog

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #168 on: November 06, 2017, 01:07:47 PM »
Gardiner + 1st for Trouba
JvR for DeHann
2nd + Carrick for Petrovic

Reilly - Trouba
Hainsey - Zaitsev
De Hann - Petrovic

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Leivo - Marleau - Marner
Martin - Bozak - Kapanen


I'm thinking the first two deals are overpayments, but I'm trying to overpay instead of underpay (to be realistic instead of a homer).

I was hoping that we could get Trouba and McNabb.

3 things I feel WPG needs:

SJS 2nd Pick,              Gardiner,                      Soshnikov             for    Trouba
High draft pick, arguably Leafs top Dman and a solid bottom 6 winger for a RHD

Bozak ($2 MIL retained) + Marincin for McNabb

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
JVR - Marleau - Kapanen
Martin - Marner - Leivo

Reilly - Trouba
Hainsey - Zaitsev
McNabb - Carrick

Carrick is fiesty but 5" and 25 lbs lighter than Petrovic.  Not sure how good Petrovic is in comparison to Carrick.   

I was wondering if McNabb could be partnered with Liljegren in the future and Carrick would be traded then.
All The Best
Dan

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #169 on: November 07, 2017, 06:31:50 PM »

Just trade them JVR already!

Offline cabber24

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #170 on: November 07, 2017, 11:47:48 PM »
Jack Johnson for JVR, both on expiring contracts.

Potential targets: Dumba, Bouwmeester,
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Offline sneakyray

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #171 on: November 13, 2017, 02:22:15 PM »
Jack Johnson for JVR, both on expiring contracts.

Potential targets: Dumba, Bouwmeester,

same kind of deal...jvr for green.  not sure how babcock feels about green though

Online WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #172 on: November 13, 2017, 02:27:20 PM »
I suspect if they trade JVR for a dman, it'll be someone who can play the PK.


Offline bustaheims

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #173 on: November 13, 2017, 02:37:48 PM »
There have been some suggestions that the Blue Jackets might be open to moving Ryan Murray. While he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-draft hype, he could still be a quality pick up, depending on the price. He coudl definitely work as a part of the 2nd PK unit, and, in the right situation, could show still show some of that potential. At the very least, he's an upgrade on Borgman/Polak/etc.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #174 on: November 14, 2017, 09:22:46 PM »
http://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-forwards-in-high-demand-as-trade-talks-heat-up-1.915674

The market is opening up as teams look to acquire forwards.   Surely there would be a fit there with the Leafs.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #175 on: November 14, 2017, 09:31:37 PM »
There have been some suggestions that the Blue Jackets might be open to moving Ryan Murray. While he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-draft hype, he could still be a quality pick up, depending on the price. He coudl definitely work as a part of the 2nd PK unit, and, in the right situation, could show still show some of that potential. At the very least, he's an upgrade on Borgman/Polak/etc.

Looking at his hero charts for the last couple of years, it looks like Polak actually outperforms him slightly.  Depends on what would have to be given up to get him.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #176 on: November 14, 2017, 09:36:50 PM »
http://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-forwards-in-high-demand-as-trade-talks-heat-up-1.915674

The market is opening up as teams look to acquire forwards.   Surely there would be a fit there with the Leafs.



Yeah, I was looking at this earlier. Funny thing, a couple of these teams are on this list of their own doing (Edmonton, Florida).

Only Edmonton, St. Louis, and Anaheim are in the West for easier trading. And only Anaheim sort of has defensemen to give, but they're Cap-strapped and also facing a lot of injuries.

Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #177 on: November 14, 2017, 09:47:51 PM »
I don't mind throwing a bone to Montreal, who are playing Victor Mete at forward tonight. Gauthier for Mete 1 for 1 should do the trick.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #178 on: November 14, 2017, 10:05:37 PM »
Looking at his hero charts for the last couple of years, it looks like Polak actually outperforms him slightly.  Depends on what would have to be given up to get him.

It's things like this that make me question the value of those hero charts. Not that Murray has been outstanding or anything, but I just don't buy that he was outperformed by Polak in the real world. I'm all for analytics and all, but I feel like situations like this show the limitations of the current stats in terms of judging and comparing individual players.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #179 on: November 14, 2017, 11:08:48 PM »
Here's their charts, for the record:



It shows that they're pretty much both bad. I'll take a pass on him. If we wanted to bring Murray back next season he'd need a qualifying offer close to $3mil and you can find better value than that elsewhere.

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #179 on: November 14, 2017, 11:08:48 PM »