Author Topic: 2017 Draft Review  (Read 3431 times)

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Offline herman

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2017 Draft Review
« on: June 25, 2017, 03:33:02 PM »
2017
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
117Timothy Liljegren1999 (D-0)RD6'0"191 lbs
259Eemeli Rasanen1999 (D-0)RD6'7"208 lbs
4110Ian Scott1999 (D-0)G6'3"172 lbs
4124Vladislav Kara1998 (D+1)C/LW6'2"187 lbs
5141Fedor Gordeev1997 (D-0)LD6'6"211 lbs
6172Ryan McGregor1999 (D-0)C6'0"157 lbs
7203Ryan O'Connell1999 (D-0)LD6'1"208 lbs

2016
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
11Auston Matthews1997 (D-0)C6'2"216 lbs
231Yegor Korshkov1996 (D+2)RW6'3"179 lbs
257Carl Grundstrom1997 (D-0)LW6'0"194 lbs
362Joseph Woll1998 (D-0)G6'3"196 lbs
372J.D. Greenway1998 (D-0)LD6'4"205 lbs
492Adam Brooks1996 (D+2)C5'11"176 lbs
4101Keaton Middleton1998 (D-0)LD6'5"234 lbs
5122Vladimir Bobylev1997 (D+1)LW/C6'2"203 lbs
6152Jonathan "Jack" Walker1996 (D+2)LW5'11"179 lbs
6179Nicolas Mattinen1998 (D-0)RD6'4"220 lbs
7182Nikolai Chebykin1997 (D+1)LW/RW6'3"209 lbs

2015
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
14Mitch Marner1997 (D-0)C/RW5'11"163 lbs
234Travis Dermott1996 (D-0)LD5'11"196 lbs
261Jeremy Bracco1997 (D-0)RW/C5'9"172 lbs
365Andrew Nielsen1996 (D-0)LD6'3"207 lbs
368Martins Dzierkals1997 (D-0)LW/RW5'11"170 lbs
495Jesper Lindgren1997 (D-0)RD6'0"161 lbs
5125Dmytro Timashov1996 (D-0)LW/RW5'10"187 lbs
6155Stephen Desrocher1996 (D+1)LD6'4"198 lbs
7185Nikita Korostelev1997 (D-0)LW/RW6'1"194 lbs
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 03:58:59 PM by herman »

Offline herman

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2017, 03:49:09 PM »
Hot takes: Day 1 = Yay! Day 2 = set some check-in reminders for 3 years later. Not as disappointingly weird as last year's draft.

Liljegren: No-brainer pick at this slot, even with the potential red flags that cropped up from coming back too early from mono and trying too hard to impress
Rasanen: Still growing into his frame, but has skills;
Scott: Very raw, and sunk by playing on a bad, bad team, but has the right specs to excel.
Kara: Looks like a good test case of the Russian scouts on staff; his production is ramping up: 0.32 PPG to 0.65 PPG in the MHL in his 19th year.
Gordeev: Quite the story; just started playing defense full time in his draft season; definitely a project, but has wheels and wingspan and some scoring instincts.
McGregor: Held back by his physical size and strength; easy enough to fix.
O'Connell: Coming out of high school is kind of hard to project, but we have a lot of runway with him going into the defensemen factory that is BU.

Offline Bender

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2017, 03:53:33 PM »
I'm hoping Liljegren doesn't turn into a draftee that dropped and went nowhere a la Angelo Esposito or Sean Day.

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Offline herman

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2017, 04:31:49 PM »
My main concern is the Hunter pattern of drafting giant defensemen with next to zero production in their draft years.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2017, 04:36:02 PM »
I'm hoping Liljegren doesn't turn into a draftee that dropped and went nowhere a la Angelo Esposito or Sean Day.

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Any examples of draftees who dropped about a dozen spots but shouldn't've come to mind?

Offline herman

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2017, 04:40:03 PM »
Thoughts from others:
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/25/in-the-2017-draft-the-leafs-avoided-the-bottleneck-and-amassed-an-island-of-misfit-toys/

Veilette brings up something I saw in last year's draft, but now that it's been repeated, it's definitely deliberate: the Leafs are looking for projects to work on. They're occasionally skipping over players that are already producing in Junior/whatever for prospects with potential that have been hamstrung by circumstance in some fashion. It appears to be part of an effort to round-out their scoring-forward-heavy prospect pool with different elements, leading to longer pipeline time and development attention, and giving the existing pool room to bloom.

Edit: Posted this pre-nap: all picks after the first two rounds are essentially projects, duh. The Leafs are targeting fixable projects.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/06/25/grading-the-toronto-maple-leafs-ohl-selections-in-the-2017-nhl-draft/

Brock Otten goes in-depth on the OHL picks: Rasanen, Gordeev, McGregor.

Gordeev is the one I'll be paying a lot of attention to down the road. He's basically a newborn hockey player considering how little time he has spent playing.

Quote
Even though Gordeev was drafted 82 spots lower than Rasanen, they are actually quite similar prospects who possess similar potential. No question, Rasanen is further along in his development at this point, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Gordeev could be a diamond in the rough for the Maple Leafs.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 09:20:06 PM by herman »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2017, 05:06:40 PM »
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

Offline herman

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2017, 05:53:00 PM »
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

Compare Hunter to Las Vegas' picks this year. Granted our teams are in different situations and mandates.

Apart from no brainer first rounders, I'm not seeing the reasons to give him carte blanche.

Mirtle's latest article indicated that 2015 was very much a Dubas draft, while subsequent ones were more Hunter.

Offline Frank E

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2017, 11:44:41 AM »
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

Compare Hunter to Las Vegas' picks this year. Granted our teams are in different situations and mandates.

Apart from no brainer first rounders, I'm not seeing the reasons to give him carte blanche.

Mirtle's latest article indicated that 2015 was very much a Dubas draft, while subsequent ones were more Hunter.

So, yeah, the jury is still out on Hunter's drafts.

Until they start producing in the NHL and are compared to other players taken in those drafts, there really isn't much to talk about there re Hunter's effectiveness.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2017, 11:52:38 AM »
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

I think you're forgetting that Mark Hunter spent a lot of time with the London Knights so he's very familiar with the OHL. That gives him a pretty comfortable leg up on scouts from other teams who may or may not know the OHL exists.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline L K

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2017, 12:48:20 PM »
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

I think you're forgetting that Mark Hunter spent a lot of time with the London Knights so he's very familiar with the OHL. That gives him a pretty comfortable leg up on scouts from other teams who may or may not know the OHL exists.

And I love the Knights for obvious reasons.  They certainly game the system a bit with US college players that lets them be more cavalier with trades.  The Hunters draft well but also thrive on good forward development more so than picking dominant defensemen.

I don't think any of the Leafs drafts under him have been bad but outside of an obvious selection we haven't seen anyone stand out as a brilliant pick. 

Most of the 2015 picks failed to build on their seasons during their draft year.  The 2016 draft is full of these overage but low ceiling picks.  Nothing really stands out this far as truly great selections.  I like the Korskoff kid from the KHL and Grundstrom had a decent AHL playoff debut.  Nielsen looks like a decent pick from the 2015 draft but al of the other guys will need to step up and show more promise over the next year or two.  None of them really strike me as guys that are NHL ready before 23-24 years old.  Getting mid round picks that contribute quickly to me would be the indication of exceptional scouting.  I think we can be happy with Mark but in no way declare him great as of yet.

And before we get into it, no, he's a pro does not automatically make him a better draft selector.  Bad GMs exist everywhere so results are the only thing that defines success as a scout/draft specialist.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 12:54:23 PM by L K »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 01:10:08 PM »

Trying to grade a draft a day or two later is obviously a sucker's game but I will say that what they did this year, drafting defensemen with upside, at least makes sense to me in a way their strategy last year of drafting nondescript overage forwards didn't.

Obviously after banging the drum all year about what Nashville did last year at the draft I might have preferred an even heavier leaning into the smaller puck moving guys but that's hair splitting in a year where there weren't a ton of those options available.

I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2017, 01:18:41 PM »
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2017, 01:26:49 PM »
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.

But, that said, it seems like the late 4th round is the time to take those sorts of gambles as opposed to, say, the first pick of the 2nd round.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline herman

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2017, 01:34:41 PM »
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/26/15869178/mark-hunters-large-adult-sons-toronto-maple-leafs-big-defenders-rasanen-middleton-nielsen-gordeev

PPP tries to make some sense of the questions I have about our 2-7 Rd picking strategy. If even one of them pans out into a Character or Parayko it's probably worth it, but I don't know how likely that will be, if it outweighs having a DeBrincat or Kylington, or Girard in the long run. Right now, with our top heavy and very young offence, it won't hurt anytime soon. Would be nice to have trade bait though.

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Re: 2017 Draft Review
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2017, 01:34:41 PM »