Author Topic: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft  (Read 5844 times)

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Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #195 on: June 25, 2017, 05:25:17 PM »
As Highlander pointed out, there definitely are hidden gems found in later rounds.  The article below (from 2016) showcases this perfectly. 

Note:. Article is from 2016 -- before the Leafs drafted Matthews, plus the successes of the 2017 playoffs.

...teams going deep in the playoffs are consistently stocked with hidden gems taken in the second round or lower on draft day.

In a salary-cap era with limited free agency and minimal player movement, the importance of the draft-and-develop model can’t be overstate ed.

Postmedia examined every draft since the 2004-05 lockout, starting with the one in which Sidney Crosby was taken first overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins (2005).

The results show perennial contenders such as the Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings are among the best at getting the most out of their draft picks — despite not often having the best draft position — while the Edmonton Oilers, with an abundance of top-10 picks (including picking No. 1 overall four times), have had middling results.

Three of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ most important contributors – defenceman Kris Letang, forward Bryan Rust and goaltender Matt Murray – were third-rounders.

The Kings, Blues and Ottawa Senators earned top grades in Postmedia’s ranking of draft performance since 2005. Their low average draft position was weighted against productivity from their draft picks and the results are impressive:

• The Kings had the 19th-best draft position and only three top-10 draft picks in 11 years, but ranked second in games played by their draft picks and in points generated.

• The Blues were 23rd in draft position but were third in games played and fourth in points generated.

• The Senators were 22nd in draft position and ranked fifth in games played, 11th in points generated.

Take the Columbus Blue Jackets, for example. The Jackets have done well at the draft table, selecting players who have combined to play more games than those in any other organization since 2005.
Despite that record, the Jackets have missed the playoffs in nine of 11 years since the 2004-05 lockout.

...same goes for the Colorado Avalanche, who have missed the playoffs in seven of 11 years, but have drafted the most offensively prolific group of players over that time period.

Colorado ranks first with 2,628 points generated by draft...despite the fact they are just 10th in terms of games played by draft.




http://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/its-not-about-first-round-picks-successful-teams-find-gems-in-later-rounds-of-nhl-draft/wcm/8b1bc155-0e9f-4e92-b8c6-288807de216f
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 05:33:10 PM by hockeyfan1 »

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #196 on: June 25, 2017, 09:24:08 PM »
herman must be getting excited, give things 2-3 years and the Leafs might just have a defensive "logjam".  :o

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #197 on: June 28, 2017, 04:57:38 PM »
I think Mark Hunter and his staff are a tad bit better at evaluating talent.  Actually I think they are the best.

Why? They made two slam-dunk easy picks with Matthews and Marner (heck, even Liljegren seems like a no-brainer) but aside from that haven't actually produced a NHL player. Yes, obviously it's incredibly early to judge them on that so far but that's another reason it's pretty bizarre to start calling them the best in the league at something.

Yeah, way too soon to say whether Hunter's any good at drafting NHL players, especially outside of the top 10 or so, where good teams find quality players. We're about 2 years out from seeing whether Hunter's large Russian sons can contribute much. Having good NHLers on cheap contracts will, of course, mean a lot for the team's longterm success, as they'll want to replace the likes of Brown in a few years...

As for their first round picks, they have done well. And interesting article on TLN points out something we should maybe more fully appreciate:

Quote
In the past four drafts, the Leafs have somehow managed four players who all hit the top five on Bob McKenzie’s ranking at some point in the season: William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and Timothy Liljegren.

They’ve only picked in the top five twice.

To emphasize the point, they did a redraft of the core, seeing how things might've turned out if players hadn't "fallen" to the Leafs. They look back only to 2014, and entertain the crazy idea that they mightn't've picked Matthews.

Another way things could've gone:
2009 -- LA Kings opt for Kadri over Schenn, PHX still takes OEL, and the Leafs are left with the other Schenn brother (Burke really wanted this to happen, IIRC)
2012 -- NYI takes Morgan Rielly at 4, and Leafs select Griffin Reinhart.
2014 -- Vancouver ignores the silly stuff and takes Nylander at #6, and we're left with Jake Virtanen or Hayden Fleury.
2015 -- ARI goes for skill and grabs Marner. Leafs take Strome or, maybe doubting him, listen to Babcock and go with the defenseman, Hanifin.
2016 -- despite the media speculation, Leafs stick with the consensus #1 and take Matthews.
2017 -- Liljegren doesn't fall quite as far and is taken by Calgary, so Leafs take Valimaki.

Instead of a core of:
Matthews,
Nylander,
Marner,
Kadri,
Rielly,
Gardiner,
with a high-ceilinged Liljegren in the pipeline...

they could be trying to build around:
Matthews,
Virtanen,
Schenn,
Reinhart,
Hanifin,
Gardiner,
with Valimaki on the horizon.

Even if Hunter turns out to be as good as whoever identified Letang, Rust, and Murray in the 3rd round for PIT, back luck at the top of the draft could've left us with a pretty middling core.

So, I'm quite happy with how the Leafs drafts have gone, but not because I think Hunter has any special insight into prospects (no evidence of that yet). Instead, we've had a bit of luck and the team's been smart about ignoring some of the common sense wisdom that causes teams to pass over high-end talent, so we seem to have the pieces we need.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #198 on: June 28, 2017, 05:21:51 PM »

Instead of a core of:
Matthews,
Nylander,
Marner,
Kadri,
Rielly,
Gardiner,
with a high-ceilinged Liljegren in the pipeline...

they could be trying to build around:
Matthews,
Virtanen,
Schenn,
Reinhart,
Hanifin,
Gardiner,
with Valimaki on the horizon.

So, I'm quite happy with how the Leafs drafts have gone, but not because I think Hunter has any special insight into prospects (no evidence of that yet). Instead, we've had a bit of luck and the team's been smart about ignoring some of the common sense wisdom that causes teams to pass over high-end talent, so we seem to have the pieces we need.

So, effectively, we should be happy that our first round picks didn't go as badly as they could have possibly gone? That's our benchmark for success?

It could just as easily be a core of Matthews, Hanifin, Ehlers, Theodore, Lindholm and Ellis.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Omallley

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #199 on: June 28, 2017, 06:22:14 PM »
So, effectively, we should be happy that our first round picks didn't go as badly as they could have possibly gone? That's our benchmark for success?

I mean...the bar was set pretty darn low over the last decade+ that this seems like a pretty logical starting point for fans. The honeymoon will end at some point, but I can't imagine that you're surprised that fans are basing their observations off of past experience and not just data, per se. It isn't your jam, but it makes sense why folks are excited that the team isn't pulling worst case scenarios for each and every move they make (circa Burke, Fletcher 2.0, and JFJ years).

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #200 on: June 28, 2017, 06:32:31 PM »
So, effectively, we should be happy that our first round picks didn't go as badly as they could have possibly gone? That's our benchmark for success?

I mean...the bar was set pretty darn low over the last decade+ that this seems like a pretty logical starting point for fans. The honeymoon will end at some point, but I can't imagine that you're surprised that fans are basing their observations off of past experience and not just data, per se. It isn't your jam, but it makes sense why folks are excited that the team isn't pulling worst case scenarios for each and every move they make (circa Burke, Fletcher 2.0, and JFJ years).

But we're talking exclusively about these guys and their ability to draft and as someone who's been a fan for that past decade+ i can say that while the overall results have generally been lousy what you're describing just isn't true. It was Burke who drafted Kadri, Nonis who drafted Nylander and JFJ, while you can say a lot of things about him, you can't say that he was terrible on draft day.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #201 on: June 28, 2017, 06:45:12 PM »
So, effectively, we should be happy that our first round picks didn't go as badly as they could have possibly gone? That's our benchmark for success?

I mean...the bar was set pretty darn low over the last decade+ that this seems like a pretty logical starting point for fans. The honeymoon will end at some point, but I can't imagine that you're surprised that fans are basing their observations off of past experience and not just data, per se. It isn't your jam, but it makes sense why folks are excited that the team isn't pulling worst case scenarios for each and every move they make (circa Burke, Fletcher 2.0, and JFJ years).

But we're talking exclusively about these guys and their ability to draft and as someone who's been a fan for that past decade+ i can say that while the overall results have generally been lousy what you're describing just isn't true. It was Burke who drafted Kadri, Nonis who drafted Nylander and JFJ, while you can say a lot of things about him, you can't say that he was terrible on draft day.

Yeah, it wasn't meant as an endorsement of the Shanahan regime. Until Hunter's picks yield 3 Connor Browns, I'm withholding judgment.

Just think it's notable that we haven't missed on any of our top 10 picks. That's not true of many teams. And not having to hope to find decent contributors in the later round, to make up for high pick busts or disappointments, sets the Leafs up well.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #202 on: June 28, 2017, 07:02:17 PM »

The only thing that confuses me there is that either it's a statement about the current management/scouting group in which case the number of top 10 picks they've made successfully is 2(and hitting on 2 top 10 picks when they're #1 and #4 isn't that exceptional) or it's a general statement about the Leafs and the fact that they haven't out and out whiffed on any top 10 picks since Brandon Convery 25 years ago which is pretty neat albeit not terribly relevant.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #203 on: June 28, 2017, 08:02:09 PM »

The only thing that confuses me there is that either it's a statement about the current management/scouting group in which case the number of top 10 picks they've made successfully is 2(and hitting on 2 top 10 picks when they're #1 and #4 isn't that exceptional) or it's a general statement about the Leafs and the fact that they haven't out and out whiffed on any top 10 picks since Brandon Convery 25 years ago which is pretty neat albeit not terribly relevant.

Somewhere in between. There haven't been any missed opportunities with a top-10 pick during the miserable post-lockout rebuild. I would think the Leafs have been pretty lucky in that regard. It certainly makes Hunter's job a lot easier.

Offline slapshot

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #204 on: June 30, 2017, 04:10:23 PM »
Just getting back to this thread. I was pretty convinced he'd be gone when I started it, but somehow the stars continue to align for the Leafs after many years of being completely off-course. Was pretty stoked on draft night to see him drop that far. Loved what Hunter said, called it a "no brainer" and said that just because he had mono, didn't mean he lost his skills. So true....

I see the Leafs just adding a short-term RD that could manage the 4 spot until this kid makes the Leafs. Seems to me they might take a similar route with him as they did with Nylander, back to Sweden then maybe some late season time with the Marlies (to get the feel of the AHL). Then next year with Marlies, with a late season audition in Toronto (like the kids call-up two seasons ago) to get the feel of the NHL, then 2019-20 full-time service with the big squad. It would be pretty cool if we didn't have to wait another 50+ years to win another Calder Trophy.

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Re: Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
« Reply #204 on: June 30, 2017, 04:10:23 PM »